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hello , i am looking for some advice/help on whats the best way i should be staking my bets.
usually when i back a horse i will continue to back it until it wins ( hopefully ) , which is usually within 3 - 7 runs , but it could be as much as 15 runs , and the prices can be anywhere between 6.2 - 48 , usually above 9.2 though , with the average of around 14.
i was wondering what kind of staking plan i should use. should i be looking to win a fixed ammount each time the horse runs regardless of the price , or should i have a minimum stake on the selection . as the prices are usually above 9.2 i would like to recover losses on previous bets on each selection.
thanks
usually when i back a horse i will continue to back it until it wins ( hopefully ) , which is usually within 3 - 7 runs , but it could be as much as 15 runs , and the prices can be anywhere between 6.2 - 48 , usually above 9.2 though , with the average of around 14.
i was wondering what kind of staking plan i should use. should i be looking to win a fixed ammount each time the horse runs regardless of the price , or should i have a minimum stake on the selection . as the prices are usually above 9.2 i would like to recover losses on previous bets on each selection.
thanks
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Unless a horse is trained to win first up a horse usually performs best ~ reaches peak fitness
from its 3 run to about its 7th run. If it has not won in that section of outings its form will decline till it is finally given a break (spelled). If it has not won in 8 races this time in
give it a miss till next it resumes from a spell.
A good rule of thumb for staking as most will tell you, the market at the jump is fairly
indicative of what the true odds should be. 1/price being the likely winning chance that the horse has and your stake should reflect that chance. Say you have a bank of 1000.00 the liability to win or lay would be its chance of winning the bet times 10% of your bank.
Never try to recoup or chase losses. An example of betting to its chance as above
Betfair price 4.00 ~ 1/4.00 = .25 * (1000 * 10%) = bet of 25.00
Betfair price 7.40 ~ 1/7.40 = .135 * (1000 * 10%) = bet of 13.50
If laying a horse at 6.5
Betfair price 6.5 lay chance = 1-(1/6.5) = .854 * (100*10%) = 85.40 (liability) Not stake
If in the event your selection is about to run in is at its pet distance you could increase the bank multiplier by 2% or so making 1000 * 12%. If this event is more than 200 meters outside
its best distance reduce the multiplier to 1000 *8%.
from its 3 run to about its 7th run. If it has not won in that section of outings its form will decline till it is finally given a break (spelled). If it has not won in 8 races this time in
give it a miss till next it resumes from a spell.
A good rule of thumb for staking as most will tell you, the market at the jump is fairly
indicative of what the true odds should be. 1/price being the likely winning chance that the horse has and your stake should reflect that chance. Say you have a bank of 1000.00 the liability to win or lay would be its chance of winning the bet times 10% of your bank.
Never try to recoup or chase losses. An example of betting to its chance as above
Betfair price 4.00 ~ 1/4.00 = .25 * (1000 * 10%) = bet of 25.00
Betfair price 7.40 ~ 1/7.40 = .135 * (1000 * 10%) = bet of 13.50
If laying a horse at 6.5
Betfair price 6.5 lay chance = 1-(1/6.5) = .854 * (100*10%) = 85.40 (liability) Not stake
If in the event your selection is about to run in is at its pet distance you could increase the bank multiplier by 2% or so making 1000 * 12%. If this event is more than 200 meters outside
its best distance reduce the multiplier to 1000 *8%.
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