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General Betting
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So the Betfair figures in today's Racing Post confirm what pre race and in running horse racing punters have suspected for some time but had little hard evidence to be sure of; UK horse racing matched turnover IS in relatively sharp decline, although overall turnover levels including other sports are still healthy and growing.
Where do punters think this will leave UK horse racing markets in five years time? Will enough foreign mugs be found to keep the gravy train on the tracks or is this something more terminal for uk racing markets, while Betfair grows from strength to strength in other areas?
Some might suggest that this is less a problem for Betfair than for pro punters; I guess the exchange would be relatively relaxed about mug punters drifiting away from racing to other avenues casino, poker, exchange games, arcade where Betfair gets to hold a far bigger percentage of the mug customer's "drop" or losses...
Would a post-float Betfair actually likely to gently encourage continued sharp decline in horse racing turnover? Less hassles from the levy, complaints about IR fairness, fees to pay to picture providers etc...
Betfair has created a much bigger pool of full time punters than ever existed before betting exchanges; will most of them be joining council workers on the ever growing dole queue in a few years time? Will the exchange part of the BF products dwindle to being of only relatively marginal significance, except continuing to exist as a sexy "cool" marketing tool to distinguish the Betfair casino from rival operators that helps attract fresh mug meat?
If one owned Betfair after a float, wouldn't it actually be a profit maximising sensible strategy to do the following:
a) use the unique aspects of betting exchanges as a marketing tool, a bit like free bets, to get virgin mug punters to open accounts with the exchange instead of the opposition. Exploit concepts such as Betfair customers "cut out the middle mad" and Betfair customers are "shrewder than normal punters" to get new accounts open.
b)However, at the same time deliberately run down and marginalise the exchange as far as possible within the Betfair site to reduce levy feest etc. Discourage recreational players from using it as far as possible once they have signed up and joined. Instead steer them towards the casino and exchange games where they will lose their the money to you, the "house", instead of pro punting sharks.
c) Take a leaf out of Denis Healey's book and 'squeeze the rich' - winning BF punters - until the pip's squeak. Keep hiking the premium charge every six months until the point where revenue actually starts to decline. When the band of self-interested customers start to wince, ignore their bleats.
d) Generally discourage professional/corporate betting activity and generally try to move closer to the higher margin recreational mug-only set up of highly profitable firms like Bwin, Bet365 and Paddy Power?
e) Allow in running and the sports exchange to continue functioning at a low level, just above the point where the product is non-viable or gives competitors a chance of taking over.
Where do punters think this will leave UK horse racing markets in five years time? Will enough foreign mugs be found to keep the gravy train on the tracks or is this something more terminal for uk racing markets, while Betfair grows from strength to strength in other areas?
Some might suggest that this is less a problem for Betfair than for pro punters; I guess the exchange would be relatively relaxed about mug punters drifiting away from racing to other avenues casino, poker, exchange games, arcade where Betfair gets to hold a far bigger percentage of the mug customer's "drop" or losses...
Would a post-float Betfair actually likely to gently encourage continued sharp decline in horse racing turnover? Less hassles from the levy, complaints about IR fairness, fees to pay to picture providers etc...
Betfair has created a much bigger pool of full time punters than ever existed before betting exchanges; will most of them be joining council workers on the ever growing dole queue in a few years time? Will the exchange part of the BF products dwindle to being of only relatively marginal significance, except continuing to exist as a sexy "cool" marketing tool to distinguish the Betfair casino from rival operators that helps attract fresh mug meat?
If one owned Betfair after a float, wouldn't it actually be a profit maximising sensible strategy to do the following:
a) use the unique aspects of betting exchanges as a marketing tool, a bit like free bets, to get virgin mug punters to open accounts with the exchange instead of the opposition. Exploit concepts such as Betfair customers "cut out the middle mad" and Betfair customers are "shrewder than normal punters" to get new accounts open.
b)However, at the same time deliberately run down and marginalise the exchange as far as possible within the Betfair site to reduce levy feest etc. Discourage recreational players from using it as far as possible once they have signed up and joined. Instead steer them towards the casino and exchange games where they will lose their the money to you, the "house", instead of pro punting sharks.
c) Take a leaf out of Denis Healey's book and 'squeeze the rich' - winning BF punters - until the pip's squeak. Keep hiking the premium charge every six months until the point where revenue actually starts to decline. When the band of self-interested customers start to wince, ignore their bleats.
d) Generally discourage professional/corporate betting activity and generally try to move closer to the higher margin recreational mug-only set up of highly profitable firms like Bwin, Bet365 and Paddy Power?
e) Allow in running and the sports exchange to continue functioning at a low level, just above the point where the product is non-viable or gives competitors a chance of taking over.
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Replies: 60
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Link to figures please?
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in running figures were up not down, imo
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Falling matched turnover doesn't necessarily equate to falling liquidity either.
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True. And it was a very small sample of 2 majors meetings only anyway.
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In my opinion, howisurluck is right. The golden age is over. We are left with 3 choices:
1 Go to the other exchange. (or bookies) 2 Get a job 3 Go to the casino, poker rooms etc. (They advertise these all the time, so they would prefer it if we went there.) |
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Howisurluck may be right or wrong.
But what an excellent post irregardless. Scary to read if you using BF as some form of prime or even secondary serious income source. Much food for thought. Would be interested to know if this type of post is pointed out to the senior echelon of the BF mgt. |
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Bf's yearly profits were £15 million and Bet365's around £90 million.
If I were a bf shareholder, I might be asking, 'why aren't we more like Bet365?' |
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£15mil after making some huge investments?
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Are other exchanges feeling thesame decrease or have they gained custmomers?
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Will the exchange part of the BF products dwindle to being of only relatively marginal significance,
Betfair has released sector figures in it's pre flotation pack. I believe the exchange was a bigger grower than either poker or xchange games despit being the most established sector. Where do punters think this will leave UK horse racing markets in five years time? Will enough foreign mugs be found to keep the gravy train on the tracks or is this something more terminal for uk racing Why would foreign punters want to bet on UK horse racing? It would be football and other sports. a) use the unique aspects of betting exchanges as a marketing tool, a bit like free bets, to get virgin mug punters to open accounts with the exchange instead of the opposition. Exploit concepts such as Betfair customers "cut out the middle mad" and Betfair customers are "shrewder than normal punters" to get new accounts open. They are doing similar already b)However, at the same time deliberately run down and marginalise the exchange as far as possible within the Betfair site to reduce levy feest etc. Discourage recreational players from using it as far as possible once they have signed up and joined. Instead steer them towards the casino and exchange games where they will lose their the money to you, the "house", instead of pro punting sharks. they are not going to discourage punters using the exchange. Such an idea is ridulous as is point e. d) Generally discourage professional/corporate betting activity and generally try to move closer to the higher margin recreational mug-only set up of highly profitable firms like Bwin, Bet365 and Paddy Power? An A rated firm wants to be more like a B / B- or C- rated firm  |
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Nice post in response Clydebank.
But why spoil it by being so agressive in certain parts. The OP was only an expression of view, not of fact. |
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^ foreign punters would want to bet on UK races because it has the best liquidity of them all. Australia is second but the German, French, New Zealand, Singapore, South African & American races have generally poor liquidity and in running is next to useless in the couple that offer that feature.
Even in Australia, we don't have in-running in the place markets. |
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Clyde is right no normal foreign punter will ever touch such a joke called horses. Only exception can be matched betting to get some free money from signing up bonuses that's all. None cares about horses out of UK.
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I think betting on horse racing is suffering as much as anything because of the availability and increased acceptance of gambling on other sports. It's never going to get back to what it was 5/10/20 years ago.
When I was young it was kind of accepted that if you wanted a bet (in a betting shop) that meant gambling on the horses. Football was minimum 3 aways or 5 homes and in any case was mainly associated with the pools. Things have completely changed. Young people are interested in football, not horse racing, and now that horse racing has lost it's almost exclusive gambling association with the GBP it will never get back to what it was. |
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.Marksman.,
Horse race punters still have the option of betting on course. |
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Horses for courses eh Muqbil ?
But what do others apart from Clyde think about the other parts of the OP? For example do you think sports betting will perhaps start to lose some of its appeal as it becomes harder and harder to turn a profit, that is without cheating in some manner ?. Or do people want, oe need, to bet on anything anytime anyway ? |
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How about you post your own opinions for once FAFH?
Personally agree with nearly everything CB said. I also disagree with your point about it being serious food for thought for pro gamblers. Pro gambling is always evolving, there was no such thing as exchange betting when I started it, and there will likely be no such thing as exchange betting when/if I finish it. If there were no pro punters on Betfair, there would be no Betfair in the same way that if there were no successful card counters, there would be no (or little) blackjack. |
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Lori - you still there?
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Morning alun, how goes?
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Found it, thanks !
Awesome scenes. |
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Me being accused of NOT posting my own opinions ?
Now that's a twist on events I certainly didn't expect. Btw I don't think the OP was suggesting that BF was going to disappear. Just morph into something not intinsically useful or attractive to real sports gamblers. Also, reading your last sentence over and over again Lori, I'm not sure you actually said what you meant to say. Did you ? Why wouldn't ther be BJ if there were no successful card counters ? |
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Why would there be?
No doubt it would have some action, but the existence of card counters and the release of Thorp's book was massive for the game. |
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Lori - no probs. Glad you liked it.
Erm........ good morning ? Are you on the other side of the world? |
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So what do you think of the OP yourself?
Personally I don't think it matters much where Betfair ends up. There will always be places to gamble (unless government legislation decides otherwise of course) and there will always be gamblers The wheres and hows change continually, but the game goes ever on. |
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It's always good morning alun, gives me a 50% strike rate without having to work out what's going on outside.
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 As always, you are the shroodie. |
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Lori
I agree that there will always be gambling somewhere in some form. One of life's real truisms. But I sincerely hope that BF does not change any more in the direction outlined in the OP. I think it's a horrible potential scenario and I would hope that the BF mgt. reads such a post and takes it all on board. |
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Ive read the original post a few times now and dont understand where he is coming from tbh. Just more relentless doom and gloom. I only know about IR but there's no problem with liquity in that area unless you are staking 4 or 5 figures at a time (in which case it may be im not sure). A few whingers not winning what they were doesnt equal the end of in running. It just means the "mugs" wised up a bit.
Regarding pre-race liquidity the old age issues highlighted on here many times before have never been sorted... but dont the bookmakers complain that their game is now dead because all the money goes through Betfair? Imo, that doesnt add up. No liquidity/All the money goes through BF now. Which one is it? |
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Maybe CW will lend u his "The End Is Nigh" board and you can parade up and down the Archway Rd, howisurluck.
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I note on entering BF website today, that it states some punter won 300,000 pounds on some casino slot game.
That's going to entice a few more people to over there no doubt. |
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IMO horse race betting is in terminal decline. It's expensive to operate, doesn't have the sports fan following of soccer, tennis, etc, and is crooked to an unknown degree. Most people would probably consider me a pro gambler and I never touch horses, except when BF sends me a promotion that tips the playing field substantially in my direction.
Exchange betting is around to stay. People may mock the BK UK ads, but they are very reflective of how I believe BF sees things. When I moved in internet start up circles, the hot word was disintermediation. And is this case what is being disintermediated is bookmakers. Nothing will stop that trend. BF's core business is exchange betting and it currently enjoys a defacto monopoly in that area. In all other areas of gambling BF faces significant competition. FYI most diversification, by most companies are failures. In fact it is quite common for companies to fatally harm their core business thru neglect while diversifying. Using exchange games, etc to 'milk' punters attracted to the exchange is a poor business strategy IMO. Smart businesses look to maximize profitability from customers over 20+ years. IMO BF is suffering from a common failing of successful companies, IPOitus. I doubt the condition is terminal, but you never know. |
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Isn't BF just using its platform, established at great cost, to the maximum extent.
The only customers being " milked" are the ones who presumably are completely unaware of the real pros and cons of true gambling. As such they will never last in the sense of the true pro, or good amateur, sports bet punters. Might as well maximize what you can get from these " mugs" while you have them around, which is usually quite a short time. I don't see this as an example of BF neglecting other parts of its site. |
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Also, I presume you can provide supporting facts for the rather extraordinary statement " FYI most divesification, by most companies are failures."
Just indulging in a bit of hyperbole perhaps to make your points ? I sure hope so. |
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Muqbil,
I hadn't thought of that one. Come to think of it, I can't remember when I last went to a racecourse. Certainly not since Betfair came into existence. Point to Points could be a nice niche. A bookie once told me that the going was the key to it because information on it was hard to find. He used to walk the course before each point to point meeting and make notes for future reference. And it would get me out of the house. Fresh air would do me good. And it will be fresh in February! |
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I was a bit surprised the racing post article didnt mention the big mugs being creamed off to a private place.
far more interesting story for me than some of the tedium that was in there. |
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It's accepted wisdom in stock investing circles, with analyses to back it up.
The reasons are the stock market values growth very highly, and management over-reach by thinking they can replicate their success in their core market in other markets when their initial success is mostly due to factors beyond their management control. BTW FaFH, the 'established at great cost' is something of a misconception. One of the problems with the internet is it makes replicating your technology fairly easy. I have a pretty shrewd idea how much it would cost to replicate BF's platform, not least because I used to do that kind of thing for a living. You are looking at perhaps 20% of what it cost BF. The other point I would make is that what sets BF's core business customers apart from all other internet businesses is their extreme price sensitivity. Succesful gamblers are by definition extremely price sensitive. You'd be right in thinking I won't be buying BF shares anytime soon. |
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I was just daydreaming whilst writing my last post. I was just imagining an ideal world, a throw back to my youth, when my first bets were at point to points. The sad truth is that I am now locked into this exchange, and the other one, with no job to go to. My fate is in their hands.
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Stop it Marksman.
You're making me cry. But I think I know where you're coming from, and you do have my sympathies. But tomorrow is another day. You never know what's in store for you. |
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pxb
I'm talking about BF maximising to the fullest the uses of the platform it built at great cost to itself. I'm not talking about others replicating it at a lesser cost. All the more reason in fact not to waste one iota of one's own platform, I would think. |