General Betting
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as soon as showing any profit quit 4 the day then resume next day keep going til somethin drastic happens and analyse your p/l then mite be better than rite now if uve got 200 profit days over 3 blow outs!!
food 4 thought ay?!
food 4 thought ay?!
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Gotta get ahead first though.
Sometimes a mite problematical. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Assuming you have an edge, it would be advisable to go in the other direction and keep betting while you're making money, and scale down after a large drawdown.
Make hay while the sun shines Cut your losses, let your profits run etc. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Oh I wish it was all that easy Investor.
Sometimes your losses are just temporary blips on the way to big gains. Other times your profits are just temporary blips on the way to big losses. How to tell which is which ? A crystal ball perhaps ? A hindsight ball though works perfectly all the time. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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As far as I'm concerned it is that easy.
It's certainly how I operate. I'm far more likely to have a £10k+ loss after an exceptionally good period, than after an exceptionally bad one. That's purely due to risk management. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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As I've been quoting a lot today, I'll share another of my favourites:
The business schools reward difficult complex behavior more than simple behavior, but simple behavior is more effective. — Warren Buffet | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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If the bet matches your parameters, make it.
Why stop or start due to artificial, unrelated conditions? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Must admit I don't understand your penultimate post Investor.
What's risk mgt. got to do with the actual timing of your wins and losses.? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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After a large drawdown I take less risk, when I'm in a situation where I am making money quickly, I scale up risk.
Essentially I am giving up a chunk of profit potential in order to have smaller but more stable profits until I have recovered. It's a cautious approach that makes some allowance for things to go wrong that I haven't considered. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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To put it another way, if I make a net profit of £30k in Oct-Dec, I am far more likely to end January with a £10k loss than if my PnL for 2010 Q4 was -£5k.
I can control (or at least very strongly influence) the range in which my returns are likely to fall. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Is that consistent with your " value price " betting.?
After all the value estimates you are making on prices shouldn't vary at all ( the basic techniquesthat is), irregardless of what your capital position is. I would have thought that a consistent approach to staking is more likely to produce a consistent income flow. In other words how can the fact that you're going through a good or bad period profit wise affect anything, unless of course you were overstaking in the first place. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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This is to ..Rossoner quiters NEVER WIN ANYTHING ask Sir Alan Suger.......... Rossoner ... your Fired ....
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A golden rule in Investing,is RUN the profits,CUT losses.
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[i[rossoneri92 Joined: 28 Apr 08
Replies: 132 17 Oct 10 22:12 as soon as showing any profit quit 4 the day then resume next day [/i] If you adopt that strategy will you be prepared to stop half way through a poor day too, or will you end up with losing streaks always greater than winning streaks? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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If you are 100% sure that you are playing with an real edge then this is a realistic approach.
If you are playing with a disadvantage it is the absolute worst way to play. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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FINE AS FROG HAIR Joined: 12 Mar 07
Replies: 785 18 Oct 10 02:42 Is that consistent with your " value price " betting.? After all the value estimates you are making on prices shouldn't vary at all ( the basic techniquesthat is), irregardless of what your capital position is. I would have thought that a consistent approach to staking is more likely to produce a consistent income flow. In other words how can the fact that you're going through a good or bad period profit wise affect anything, unless of course you were overstaking in the first place. My aim is not to maximize profit in the long term, at the very least I want to make a profit every single year. A down quarter I can accept. Therefore if I suffer a large drawdown, my aim shifts from 'make as much money as possible' to 'protect what I have'. Having a bad profit period therefore, means that I will act with more caution to avoid things getting out of hand. I realize that in the past my profits were so consistent that I was quite obviously not taking on an optimal level of risk. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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In other words you were overstaking ?
You see I'm very different. I have a very long term betting strategy. I started out a few years ago with the aim of turning x pounds into y pounds in 5-7 years, without ever getting my bet size above z pounds. I won't give you the exact x & y targets as they are irrelevant, but the z is 500 pounds. But suffice it to say the y end target will make the whole exercise very worthwhile, if successful. And so far so good. I think I know exactly what my max drawdown in units is ever likely to be and I grow my stake in proportion according to that estimate, by inceasing my stake proprtionately as and when I reach new peaks in capital growth. That can mean , for example, that I can go for many months, without ever changing my staking level. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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What makes you think I was overstaking?
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Well if you say that after a large drawdown you start to take less risk, that's how I interpret it.
In my method, I stake allowing for any drawdown, actual or potential. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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But basically I think it is all just the difference between a long term approach to generating profits and a shorter term approach to generating them.
I take the first because I don't need any immediate inflows of income to fund my current lifestyle, you presumably take the second because you do rely on your betting, to a degree at least, to fund your current lifestyle. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Well that's true, but I would say the main reason is that I want continous real world feedback that what I'm doing is actually working. I'm constantly trying out new things and adapting to changing situations.
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continuous
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Again the difference between a short and long term approach.
I think you quoted Warren Buffet earlier on. Now he is a prime example of the long term approach, and not overly tinkering with things continuously. But each to his own. I'm not saying you are wrong, I'm just saying that your approach is entirely different to mine and doesn't appeal at all, from a reward/effort perspective at least. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I live to bet.
You bet to live. Would that sum it up better ?. Nah I don't think so. Too simplistic probably. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I'd say my approach is medium term rather than short term.
It's very difficult to quantify with a high degree of accuracy how much of your PnL is due to luck and how much is due to exploiting an edge. I prefer to err on the side of caution, although I have massively increased the amount of risk I am willing to accept. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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In the " price value" approach to betting, I would agree most strongly with the first part of your second sentence.
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I started out a few years ago with the aim of turning x pounds into y pounds in 5-7 years
FAFH, do you run a system or trade or straight gambling, if you don't me asking? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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It's not a trading system.
I have an algorithm that I input data into daily, and it calculates pre-match soocer bets for me. Then I just let it all unfold for the day. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Thanks, do you find that early and late season throws up poorer returns, or no pattern is apparent?
I do a similar thing I guess, but also play in running. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No discernible pattern.
But I must admit I haven't really studied anything in this manner. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The point that seems to have been overlooked here is subjectivity. The more of it in your gambling approach the more likely you are to employ a strategy similar to The Investor. This could be simply due to being negatively affected by your short or even medium-term results and a counter-balance to keep yourself in check. The more subjectivity in an approach the more doubt there's likely to be over whether the results are actually due to variance or a poor methodology.
However, if a computer program is betting for you then all emotion is taken out of the process and so in theory, assuming there's a quantifiable edge that you're assuming still exists there would be no real need to scale back. To answer the original question, I can see no logical argument to stop as soon as you've made a profit or any artificial target. Unless you were the sort of person who might feel the reverse effects of my first argument. In other words you go crazy because you're winning and start losing the plot, over staking here, taking poor odds there, making a general mess everywhere. However, certainly in the medium term I can understand re-evaluating and potentially reducing liabilities during a losing spell. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Excellent post Curly.
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Yes very good post.
I do think the assumption that a quantifiable edge still exists is a dangerous one though. Even if you use a quantitative approach, it does not mean a bot will do better than you. The execution of your ideas will be vastly improved by using a bot, but you are still responsible for making sure the ideas are sound and still applicable. When I see especially interesting posts I sometimes save them. I'm working on automated betting currently, but have very limited experience. The following gives an idea of why I believe manual trading is still important to form new ideas and keep a 'feel' for the markets: pumpkinslayer 01 Apr 10:57 The advantage of reducing everything to a mathematical formula is that one can then program a bot to trade/bet for you. It will typically triple your profits and you will be free to work on new projects or do other things. Now, it is indeed true that formulae do stop working. A few weeks a go I switched off my trading bots. They do not work anymore. A manual trader would probably have been aware of the slow changes to the market and adapted whereas my bots could not. However, during the extra free time I have had, many new ideas have been developed, to the point where the trading was just a small part of the whole anyhow. Doing things manually/reducing them to formulae are the same thing really, just one is more profitable, more efficient and takes considerably less time. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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FWIW I manually place every one of my positions and manage them in the same way.
The reason I don't automate isn't because I don't know how or understand how useful it can be, but because I don't believe [read: know] an automated system could replace what I do. Thats not to say I don't make mistakes, I make plenty of them an automated system wouldn't. Part of the analysis I run specifically picks up on the effect of misclicks (good and bad) and the numbers involved are frightening. Part of the reason for this is probably due to an instant reaction to correct if possible (accepting a loss at the first price that seems value). The data shows that if I didn't react in this way I'd make a lot more money; however what the data doesn't and can't possibly show is the impact the unwanted liability would have on the rest of my activity. 'Lies, damned lies, and statistics'. I'd like to be able to automate my activity but the majority of it cannot be replicated partially for that reason. As pumpkinslayer is quoted, automation can lead to more efficiency and is certainly a time saver and I certainly use algorithms to determine starting prices and the time saved is invaluable. When all the necessary variables can be calculated automatically I still feel it would be easier to spot when variance becomes a loss of edge. (I may be wrong). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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what the data doesn't and can't possibly show is the impact the unwanted liability would have on my mindset and therefore on the rest of my activity
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If your edge is due totally to sound, irrefutable mathematical reasons then automate.
If it's not then you have to play, at least in part, manually. And how many edges are due totally to sound mathematical reasons.? Unless you are running a below 100% book all the time, not many I would think. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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A stop/loss for those who don’t bother with the scoop-6
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Tightfisted, are those your weekly cumulative figures? If so the only advantage I can see to stopping at +30/-60 is that it provides less weekly volatility, but contrary to first appearances it actually shows less profit over the last 6 months (since 1st May).
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Trevh, which cumulative total would you choose, the one that has a bigger winning streak in the last 6 months with its highs and miserable lows or the more stable and more profitable?? Check out what happened when DFC has a few days of losses. The first thing to go was his cumulative P/L as well as his bottle.
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Should the bettor give up or add another 1000 to the bank? Increase or decrease the bet?? |