System.test. English rubbish on tv.

The premise of the thread is underdogs preform with the tv there, in the week. Thats what I think I,ve seen, but with betting you tend to see what confirms your view,so I,m writing it down so there are no lies.

Agree that there is no great gulf with the teams.

What I,ll think I,ll end up showing is that the odds give a fair reflection further we go into the season.

Internationals ZZZzzz.
Saturday this does not count.
Cardiff

Cardiff@1.63

Cardiff won 3-2

QPR next

And Leicester.

QPR drew 0-0@1.72
Leicester drew 1-1@1.86

Tuesday.
Burnley.
Norwich.
Nottm Forest, a maybe(evens)

Burnley won 3-0@1.65, -£65, Total +£220
Norwich lost 1-2@1.73, +£95, Total +£315
Nottm Forest won 1-0@1.96, -£96, Total +£219

Saturday,doesn,t count.
Watford.

Watford@1.67

Watford lost 0-2

Bit late..
Ipswich@1.48
Tramere@1.80

Above is tuesday.

Ipswich won 3-1@1.48,-£48,Total +£171
Tranmere drew 0-0@1.80,+£95, total +£266

Since I,ve been noting them down thought I may as well do a running total for the weekends as well.

Total +£190, weekends.
Total +£266, weekdays.

Saturday..
Cardiff@1.71.
QPR@1.82.

Cardiff won 3-1@1.71, -£71,Total +£100
QPR drew 1-1@1.82, +£95, Total +£195

Tuesday Brighton won 3-0@1.57, -$57, Total +£133
Carlisle won 2-0@1.75, -£75, Total +£58
Southampton won 4-0@1.37, -£37, Total +£21

Before I forget..
Saturday.
Middlesbourgh@1.81 won, -£81, Total +£114
Huddesfield@1.76 drew, +£95, Total +£213

Sunday.
Sheffield Wednesday@1.75 won, -£75, Total +£138

Tuesday..
Burnley@1.8 drew, +£95, Total +£116
Leeds@1.82 drew, +£95, Total +£211
Nottingham Forest@1.78 won, -£78, Total +£133

Sunday.
Swansea@1.86 won, -£86, Total +£52

Tuesday.
Charlton@1.32 won, -£32, Total +£101
Huddersfield@1.35 won, -£35, Total +£66
L Orient@1.9 won, -£90, Total -£24
MK Dons@1.88 drew, +£95, Total +£71
Peterbourgh@1.41 won, -£41, Total +£30
Port Vale@1.29 won, -£29, Total +£1
brighton@1.54 drew, +£95, Total +£96

Wednesday..
Luton@1.3 won, -£30, Total +£66

Next page totals..
weekdays +£66
weekends +£52.

Saturday.
Derby Co@1.77, won -£77, Total -£25
QPR@1.47, won -£47, Total -£72

Tuesday.
Bournemouth@1.67, won -£67, Total -£1
Charlton@1.69, drew +£95, Total +£94
Chesterfield@1.19, won -£19, Total +£75
Peterbourgh@1.93, drew +£95, Total +£170
Southampton@1.94, drew +£95, Total +£265

Friday.
Port Vale@1.73, won -£73, Total +£192
Swansea@1.73, lost, +£95, Total +£287

Saturday.
Reading@1.85, drew +£95, Total +£23

Monday.
Leyton Orient@1.72, drew +£95, Total +£382

Saturday
Cardiff@1.47, drew +£95, Total +£117
Leeds@1.76, won -£76, Total +£41
Millwall@1.76, won -£76, Total -£35

Tuesday.
Swindon@1.86, drew +£95 Total +£477

Wednesday.
Brighton@1.51, won -£51, Total +£426

Friday.
Peterbourgh@1.88, won -£88, Total +£338
QPR@1.71, lost +£95, Total +£433
Swansea@1.78, drew +£95, Total +£528

Saturday.
Leicester@1.77, won -£77, Total -£112
Reading@1.82, drew +£95, Total -£17

Sunday
Charlton@1.49, lost +£95, Total +£78

Tuesday.
Hartlepool@1.88, won -£88, Total +£440
Nuneaton@1.68, won -£68, Total +£372

Saturday
Cardiff@1.72, won -£72, Total +£6
huddesfield@1.7, lost +£95, Total +£101

Sorry, that was boxing day sunday.

Tuesday
Burnley@1.59, lost +£95, Total +£467
Leeds@1.95, drew +£95, Total +£562
Norwich@1.81, won -£81, Total +£481
Southampton@1.87, won -£87, Total +£394
Swansea@1.62, won -£62, Total +£332

Wednesday.
Nottingham Forest@1.93, won -£93, Total +£239

Saturday.
Brighton@1.91, won -£91, Total +£10
Burnley@1.79, won -£79, Total -£69
MK Dons@1.97, won -£97, Total -£166
Doncaster@1.9, won -£90, Total -£255
Watford@1.92, won -£92, Total -£347

Tuesday.
Southampton@1.83, won -£83, Total +£156
QPR@1.57, drew +£95, Total +£251
Peterbourgh@1.68, won -£68, Total +£183
Darlington@1.86, won -£86, Total +£97

Monday.
Kingtonian(?!)@1.53, won -£53, Total +£47

Tuesday.
Alfreton@1.4, won -£40, Total +£57
Darlington@1.46, won -£46, Total +£11
Huddesfield@1.58, won -£58, Total -£47
Kiddeminster@1.88, won -£88, Total -£135
Rotherham@1.87, drew +£95, Total -£40

Saturday.
Leeds@1.55, won -£55, Total +£46
Millwall@1.97, won -£97, Total -£51
Nottingham@1.7, won -£70, Total -£121

Tuesday.
Luton@1.67, won -£67, Total -£107
MK Dons@1.77, lost +£95, Total -£12

Saturday.
Leicester@1.9, won -£90, Total -£197
Reading@1.98, drew +£95, Total -£102
Burnley@1.91, drew +£95, Total -£7

Sunday.
QPR@1.49, won -£49, Total -£56

Tuesday.
Brighton@1.68, won -£68, Total -£80
Luton@1.64, won -£64, Total -£144
Nottingham Forest@1.5, won -£50, Total -£194
Sheffield Wed@1.67, drew +£95, Total -£99
Swindon@1.76, drew +£95, Total -£4

Friday.
Millwall@1.7, won -£70, Total -£74

Saturday.
Swansea@1.81, lost +£95, Total +£39
Burnley@1.34, won -£34, Total +£5
Sheff Wed@1.49, won -£49, Total -£44
Watford@1.94, lost +£95, Total +£51

Monday.
Havent@1.8, won -£80, Total -£154

Tuesday.
Middleborugh@1.58, won -£58, Total -£212
Watford@1.63, drew +£95, Total -£117
QPR@1.59, won -£59, Total -£176

Wedbesday.
Notts County@1.83, drew +£95, Total -£81

Thursday.
Crawley Town@1.58, drew +£95, Total +£14

Saturday.
No teams, wouldn't use the site after two crashes by 3pm.

Monday.
Chelmsford@1.87, won -£87, Total -£73
Nuneaton@1.63, drew +£95, Total +£22

Tuesday.
Hereford@1.98, drew +£95, Total +£117
Huddesfield@1.63, won -£63, Total +£54
Rochdale@1.66, won -£66, Total -£12

Wednesday.
Farnborough@1.43, lost +£95, Total +£83

Saturday.
Cardiff@1.37, won -£37, Total +£14
Hull City@1.67, won -£67, Total -£53

Monday.
Worcester@1.9, won -£90, Total -£7

Tuesday.
Watford@1.57, drew +£95, Total +£88

Wednesday.
Nottingham Forest@1.75, lost +£95, Total +£183

Friday.
Leicester@1.49, won -£49, Total +£134
Port Vale@1.95, won -£95, Total +£39

Tuesday.
Bournmouth@1.94, drew +£95, Total +£134
Brighton@1.37, won -£37, Total +£97
Southhamton@1.78, drew +£95, Total +£192
Leeds@1.75, drew +£95, Total +£287
Norwich@1.45, drew +£95, Total +£382
Nottingham Forest@1.53, won -£53, Total +£329
Portsmouth@1.97, won -£97, Total +£232
Watford@1.9, lost +£95, Total +£327
Brentford@1.96, won -£96, Total +£231
QPR@1.87, won -£87, Total +£144

Saturday.
Swansea@1.99, won -£99, Total -£152
Bristol C@1.75, won -£75, Total -£227
Ipswich@1.92, lost +£95, Total -£132
Leicester@1.6, drew +£95, Total -£37

Tuesday.
Derby@1.98, lost +£95, Total +£239
Portsmouth@1.58, won -£58, Total +£181

Saturday.
Burnley@1.63, won -£63, Total -£26
Norwich@1.57, drew +£95, Total +£69
Swansea@1.78, lost +£95, Total +£164
Cardiff@1.88, lost +£95, Total +£259

Monday.
Alfreton@1.88, won -£88, Total +£93

Saturday.
Site down 2.30 pm. No bets.

Sunday.
Cardiff@1.61, drew +£95, Total +£354

Monday.
Norwich@1.75, won -£75, Total +£18
Telford@1.5, won -£50, Total -£32

Tuesday.
Accrington@1.96, won -£96, Total -£128
Burnley@1.78, drew +£95, Total -£33
Carlisle@1.96, drew +£95, Total +£62
Crawley@1.34, won -£34, Total +£28
Kettering@1.78, won -£78, Total -£50

Wednesday.
Stalybridge@1.93, drew +£95, Total +£45

Saturday.
Leicester@1.77, lost +£95, Total +£449
Southampton@1.47, won -£47, Total +£402

Tuesday.
Brighton@1.68, won -£68, Total -£23
Southampton@1.88, drew +£95, Total +£72
Darlington@1.78, drew +£95, Total +£167
Port Vale@1.84, drew +£95, Total +£262
Torquay@1.64, won -£64, Total +£198

Wednesday.
Braintree@1.41, won -£41, Total +£157

Friday.
Peterbourgh@1.93, drew +£95, Total +£252

Saturday.
Brighton@1.67, won -£67, Total +£335
Grimsby@1.74, drew +£95, Total +£430
L. Orient@1.93, lost +£95, Total +£525
Darlington@1.66, lost +£95, Total +£620
Luton@1.83, lost +£95, Total +£715

Sunday.
Oxford@1.83, won -£83, Total +£632

Monday.
Alferton@1.75, won -£75, Total +£177
Lowestoft@1.93, won -£93, Total +£84

Tuesday.
Port Vale@1.6, won -£60, Total +£24
Sheff Wed@1.87, lost +£95, Total +£119

Seems to be about break even.

But you are probably right that the odds on are poor value as you are break even , slightly up, after commission.

The Backers of these teams must be losing badly.

Yes, it all seems like a much of a muchness, odds being close to the truth in the long term. When divs 1,2,3 finish gonna add up the numbers and put them in the final post.

The only thing I think I'll end up showing is how a silly little figure of 5% comm. long term is a killer. And I'd guess that most people think 5% off a winning bet...well it's nothing is it?

Wednesday.
Accrington@1.77, won -£77, Total +£42
Alfreton@1.64, won -£64, Total -£22
Eastwood@1.4, won -£40, Total -£62

Yeah , in most of the system/challenge threads on here people don't even bother to include it, but it is the biggest factor in winning or losing on here.

My Betfair Accounts are about £250 down over 3 years, would be thousands ahead without comm.

Friday.
Peterbourgh@1.87, drew +£95, Total +£33

Saturday.
Bristol City@1.97, won -£97, Total +£535
Cardiff@1.65, won -£65, Total +£470
Norwich@1.57, won -£57, Total +£413

Monday.
QPR@1.55, won -£55, Total -£22

Tuesday.
Accrington@1.69, won -£69, Total -£91
Leyton Orient'1.93, won -£93, Total -£184
Luton@1.55@, drew +£95, Total -£89
Sheff Wed@1.93, won -£93, Total -£182
Southamton@1.43, won -£43, Total -£225
Reading@1.51, won -£51, Total -£276

Saturday.
Ipswich@1.9, won -£90, Total +£323
Leicester@1.78, won -£78, Total +£245
Portsmouth@1.93, drew +£95, Total +£340

Tuesday.
Crawley@1.94, drew +£95, Total -£181
Leicester@1.5, drew +£95, Total -£86
Millwall@1.64, drew +£95, Total +£9
Nottingham Forest@1.86, won -£86, Total -£77
Reading@1.6, won -£60, Total -£137
Swansea@1.68, drew +£95, Total -£42

Tuesday.
Kiddiminster@1.87, lost +£95, Total +£53

Friday.
Bury@1.43, won -£43, Total +£10
Coventry@1.78, drew +£95, Total +£105
Exeter@1.89, won -£89, Total +£16

Saturday.
Hull@1.87, lost +£95, Total +£435
Watford@1.89, won -£89, Total +£346
Millwall@1.89, won -£89, Total +£257

Monday.
Burnley@1.71, drew +£95, Total +£111
Leicester@1.78, won -£78, Total +£33
Norwich@1.38, won -£38, Total -£5
QPR@1.63, drew +£95, Total +£90
Reading@1.38, lost +£95, Total +£185
Southampton@1.31, won -£31, Total +£154
Swansea@1.71, won -£72, Total +£82
York@1.74, drew +£95, Total +£177

Saturday.
Ipswich@1.78, won -£78, Total +£179

Monday.
Southampton@1.54, won -£54, Total +£125
Cardiff@1.42, lost +£95, Total +£220
Norwich@1.94, won -£94, Total +£126

Saturday.
Leicester@1.74, won -£74, Total +£105
Middlebourgh@1.71, won -£71, Total +£34
Norwich@1.6, drew +£95, Total +£129
QPR@1.94, lost +£95, Total +£224
Reading@1.51, won -£51, Total +£173
Swansea@1.5, won -£50, Total +£123
Bournmouth@1.84, lost +£95, Total +£218
Colchester@1.65, won -£65, Total +£153
Southampton@1.63, won -£63, Total +£90

That was the last day of the regular season.
Laying odds on for £100 liabilities gave you....
Weekdays +£126, 136 matches
Weekends +£90, 79 matches

This is taking commision off.

So weekdays wasn't any different from weekends.

Lumping them together..

English stuff lower than the prem, +£216 off 215 matches.

You had 93 winning bets off these and paid commission of £5 per bet, ie you have paid £465

So you are up +£216 and paid +£465. Beating commission takes some doing.

ttt