General Betting
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08 Sep 10
19:14
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Date Joined:
10 Apr 08
This is from my blog, and is just a mixture of my thoughts really and replies on the matter would me most welcome.
I'm sure you've all heard the statistic (I use the word statistic loosely here) that 99% of a gamblers lose money and that only 1% (possibly less in reality) actually make money from gambling. There's a good reason for that, a large majority of people see betting or gambling simple as a leisure activity and putting on a ten-team accumulator on the footy each weekend in a sense is no different than having a quid lucky dip on the national lottery. For some people this is as far as it goes and betting is simply a mechanism to make the weekend football results a little more interesting. But for some people it goes beyond that point, gambling takes over their life and that's when it becomes dangerous and sadly it can destroy a person's life rather rapidly.
You could blame the bookmakers for their continuous advertising and glamorising of the industry, anybody who watched the ad breaks during the world cup will know what I mean. I'm by no means the biggest fan of bookmakers in general, but after all they are only businesses and the main objective of any business is to make profit, and that they'll continue to do at the hands of the uneducated and sometimes frail and unaware punters who fail to grasp the key concept of value.
I'm not trying to sound arrogant or indeed highly educated in the world of gambling. I know very little on the face of things but I've learnt that getting good prices and only taking bets that offer value is the only way to make a profit, either that or adopting a systematic approach that does all this work for you. It makes me feel somewhat sick that people pour their high earned into FOBTs (Fixed Odds Betting Terminals) and the like when the basic laws of probability says in the long-term they are only going to lose money, not even Derren Brown could turn a profit on one of these machine which frequent every high-street bookmaker.
I come to my main point now, that is that the human mind and instinct isn't meant to bet and gamble successfully. Instinct will tell you to only bet on something you think will win, regardless of the odds. Human emotions get depressed and upset at a losing run of bets and the chase instinct takes over. Human emotions get happy and excited at a winning run and the thought off winning money from betting.
I myself have fallen demon to these human instincts on a number of occasions in my betting. It's alright and good breaching the words discipline, sensible staking plan, bet on value, ect, ect. But in reality the human brain works on emotion not on numbers and on discipline. The human brain is a wonderful thing but in my opinion it is difficult to control and tame. I mentioned that only 1% (probably less) make a profit from gambling, to them I salute, I myself could be considered one even if my overall profit for gambling is minuscule. I feel I'm a rather controlled and level-minded sort of soul but even I can wander down unsafe ground at times.
I'd originally planned to trial and go full-time from next year. But at the moment I'm having doubts over that (the recent poor losing run and the depressed emotions that come from it may be talking here) but the main reason comes back to human nature. Could I trust myself not to go crazy one night and blow a small fortune? I know for a fact I have all the resources and skill I need to make a very good amount of money, maybe even enough to live from. But could you trust yourself as a "professional gambler"? With all that responsibility and the need for a strong mind and steady emotions. I've frequently mentioned the 1% figure as people who make profit for gambling, but no one knows for sure how many people of that 1% make a living off betting, I'd hazard a guess it wouldn't be very big. It's the ultimate dream for most punters, the illustrious image of the professional gambler: black coat, sunglasses, racing post under one arm and an expensive wristwatch on the other. I for sometime have dreamed of just this image but just recently I've started to wonder whether this image is not highly desirable after all and that whether to achieve this feat you have to be somewhat void of emotion and instinct.
I'm sure you've all heard the statistic (I use the word statistic loosely here) that 99% of a gamblers lose money and that only 1% (possibly less in reality) actually make money from gambling. There's a good reason for that, a large majority of people see betting or gambling simple as a leisure activity and putting on a ten-team accumulator on the footy each weekend in a sense is no different than having a quid lucky dip on the national lottery. For some people this is as far as it goes and betting is simply a mechanism to make the weekend football results a little more interesting. But for some people it goes beyond that point, gambling takes over their life and that's when it becomes dangerous and sadly it can destroy a person's life rather rapidly.
You could blame the bookmakers for their continuous advertising and glamorising of the industry, anybody who watched the ad breaks during the world cup will know what I mean. I'm by no means the biggest fan of bookmakers in general, but after all they are only businesses and the main objective of any business is to make profit, and that they'll continue to do at the hands of the uneducated and sometimes frail and unaware punters who fail to grasp the key concept of value.
I'm not trying to sound arrogant or indeed highly educated in the world of gambling. I know very little on the face of things but I've learnt that getting good prices and only taking bets that offer value is the only way to make a profit, either that or adopting a systematic approach that does all this work for you. It makes me feel somewhat sick that people pour their high earned into FOBTs (Fixed Odds Betting Terminals) and the like when the basic laws of probability says in the long-term they are only going to lose money, not even Derren Brown could turn a profit on one of these machine which frequent every high-street bookmaker.
I come to my main point now, that is that the human mind and instinct isn't meant to bet and gamble successfully. Instinct will tell you to only bet on something you think will win, regardless of the odds. Human emotions get depressed and upset at a losing run of bets and the chase instinct takes over. Human emotions get happy and excited at a winning run and the thought off winning money from betting.
I myself have fallen demon to these human instincts on a number of occasions in my betting. It's alright and good breaching the words discipline, sensible staking plan, bet on value, ect, ect. But in reality the human brain works on emotion not on numbers and on discipline. The human brain is a wonderful thing but in my opinion it is difficult to control and tame. I mentioned that only 1% (probably less) make a profit from gambling, to them I salute, I myself could be considered one even if my overall profit for gambling is minuscule. I feel I'm a rather controlled and level-minded sort of soul but even I can wander down unsafe ground at times.
I'd originally planned to trial and go full-time from next year. But at the moment I'm having doubts over that (the recent poor losing run and the depressed emotions that come from it may be talking here) but the main reason comes back to human nature. Could I trust myself not to go crazy one night and blow a small fortune? I know for a fact I have all the resources and skill I need to make a very good amount of money, maybe even enough to live from. But could you trust yourself as a "professional gambler"? With all that responsibility and the need for a strong mind and steady emotions. I've frequently mentioned the 1% figure as people who make profit for gambling, but no one knows for sure how many people of that 1% make a living off betting, I'd hazard a guess it wouldn't be very big. It's the ultimate dream for most punters, the illustrious image of the professional gambler: black coat, sunglasses, racing post under one arm and an expensive wristwatch on the other. I for sometime have dreamed of just this image but just recently I've started to wonder whether this image is not highly desirable after all and that whether to achieve this feat you have to be somewhat void of emotion and instinct.
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It seems as though you have fairly accurately analysed the characteristics that make a good gambler.
Whether you potentially have them in sufficient depth, only you can judge. But at least you would be going into " work " with a fair idea of what is involved. That's more than most. Whether it is going to be enough, only time will tell. But if you don't think you can handle the mood swings then don't do it. Interestingly enough, if you read in any depth about the hedge fund industry, you will find that they ( the top managers) have to face and deal with the same type of swings. Many of their trades go horribly wrong before the big winning ones come along. |
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You're totally right.
Someone is able to learn this, value bettibg AND controlling the instincts that are working against you, trough hard work and experience. Many don't bother to learn or don't think they need to because of a to big ego. And many of those who really try want make it anyway. It takes some skills: Passion Intelligence Good with numbers Not to big ego Dicipline Patience Always willing to learn more |
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I come to my main point now, that is that the human mind and instinct isn't meant to bet and gamble successfully. Instinct will tell you to only bet on something you think will win, regardless of the odds. Human emotions get depressed and upset at a losing run of bets and the chase instinct takes over. Human emotions get happy and excited at a winning run and the thought off winning money from betting.
Although this is a very popular view, I think what it really boils down to is the fundamental lack of understanding of probability theory that permeates society. Many of the key concepts are considered 'counter intuitive', which is probably where the idea of human nature not being suited to successful gambling comes from. Once you understand how it works, it is no longer counter-intuitive. I don't see a successful gambler as some kind of victor of an internal struggle, going against his own nature. |
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Another thing I hear people mention all the time (and use as an excuse for poor results) is (lack of) discipline. I think discipline is only required if you want different things that cancel each other out, and and you are forced to choose. If this is not the case, there is no need for discipline, because everything happens naturally.
Consider two people who are in excellent physical condition. Person 1 loves sports and eating healthy foods and person 2 Takes time to go to the gym regularly, not for enjoyment, but to stay fit, and resist the temptation of fatty and sugary foods. Person one does not need discipline, because he is doing what he wants to do anyway, but person two does, and has to make sacrifices, such as spending time in the gym and not eating fatty foods. |
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I think the disciplines we are talking about here are the ones about not getting greedy and also having patience.
These things do not come naturally to most. |
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I don't disagree with that, but I could say that if you hand out a store card that charges 30%+ interest to a bunch of customers, a large proportion of them would get into debt at these ridiculous rates. I think that the same applies here: this is not due to human nature, but due to a lack of understanding and/or insight.
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When something unlikely happens, like a 4-0 lead going to 4-4 in the last 10 minutes of an African Cup of Nations game, or the Chelsea v Wigan game ending with zero corners, you get people saying what 'idiots' the people that chose to lay this were. The statement "I can't believe anyone would risk £1000 to win £1", betrays a lack of understanding, as if someone that backs at 1000 and happens to win is some kind of genius.
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^
I'm not implying that everyone should be happy to lay at 1000 when they have an edge, you need both a large bank and a lack of better opportunities for this to make sense. |
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letsalldance
I think you defined the 'human instinct' in gambling very well. Im posting here to ask you to be very very careful - you point to almost all the qualities you need to become successful, as do the follow up posters, but these alone wont get you there Your goal is to produce a systematic approach that returns you an 'edge' that puts you into the profit making few. This 'edge' takes all the skills mentioned and may never exist for you at all. I would say that only many years of usage, refining, etc etc. is needed before you can actually claim this 'edge' All the human conditions will battle against you during this time, but once you feel you have proved your there, then you must adopt a systematic approach from thereonwards - that in itself should take out the human emotions I know I sound like a 'know all' here, but it is your last paragraph that I find disturbing (and the only reason I'm posting) - you talk about emotions, can I trust myself etc, but your final point of your ultimate dream convinces me that you should not go down this road. You will find the very few, will not flaunt themselves in this way and would probably never claim to be to be a professional gambler |
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For me the most important principle of successful betting is:
Protecting what you have comes first, making a profit second. |
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Thanks for the replies, some good points made as well. I consider myself to be fairly well-educated on the numbers front and in probability theory, suprisingly I guess a lot people who bet aren't and hence the troubles that follow.
A number of interesting comparisons made as well, the hedge fund manager is a good one and explains partly why they are paid so well. You need certain types of skills and a mind-set to be able to manage the swings. Interesting take on the discipline matter also, as to say if you are already enjoy to doing something a certain way then you don't really need discipline. Suppose that underlines the importance of good practise when your gambling. You also mention the "counter-intuitive" concept which I'd also say I'm over it's more a lack of rational thought than one of human nature I guess. I keep records of all my bets and do all the right practises and make decent profit for a part-time gambler at present. But there's the occassional lapse, usually if I have a day off or lots of time to spare and nothing to go out for. End up on Betfair trying to trade, when in truth my strength doesn't lie in trading on Betfair but on simply placing bets and letting them run usually with online bookmakers. I frequentley use to do this in my earlier years of gambling but now it's becoming less and less frequent until a couple of days ago when a lost about 10% of my profit for the year so far by trading badly. My mind told me it was a bad idea but still I continued to do it. Don't know if you would call this human nature or maybe just a problem I have. I probably am going to trial out being a professional gambler from next year and see if I can cope with pressures. Anymore stories on the matter welcome. |
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As Birch says, get rid of the black coat, sunglasses and expensive wristwatch thoughts.
You sound as if you have a reasonable chance of being successful. Another word of advice, focus on the long term view. Don't overreact to short term downturns, particularly if your underlying theories are stll showing strong long term performance. In other words, take a position and believe in it till it is patently obvious that it is wrong. Don't twist and turn. Some people do that and call it trading. It's no such thing. |
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But could you trust yourself as a "professional gambler"?
Agree with others with regard to the sunglasses comment. One of the things that played heavy on my mind was the "can I trust myself at all times" scenario. I'd heard stories of long term full time punters going broke after bringing out the Tanks to recover losses, i.e. placing a far greater percentage of the betting bank than normal on suspected dead certs, after a bad run. That's the reason I decided to play to level stakes only, at 0.5% of the bank. This game is hard enough as it is, so I wanted to give myself the security and peace of mind of constant reliable staking at all times, no exceptions. That works well for me but I also understand that many punters like to vary stakes according to their perceived value. I forgo that in favour of security. |
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Interesting thread, however I am convinced after 40 years of losing that you also need good quality information. This applies especially to horses, maybe most football knowledge is public domain. I would also consider the figures. Betfair make 5%, so to justify your effort you need say %10 on turnover. so turnover = bet/risk £10000 every week, some weeks you will lose 10%, but lets say on 40 weeks you make £1000 and on 10 weeks you lose £1000, giving you £30000 for the year profit. £10k per week t/o = about 2k per day. say 10 events per day with £200 risked each time. If this works you will have studied hard and and slightly beaten the wages of a bus driver with overtime.
If you plan no risk, just a steady trade, you will neeed auto bots and a higher turnover to get about 1% before premium charge. Best plan is get a bookmaker licence and a shop, and lay all singles over your limit back on betfair where you will make about 5% above the sp. Keep in touch with us so we know how it works out. |
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one of the best poker players in history lost his fortune playing a game that involved dice.
gambling is a thrill--wether u can control it another question |
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We're talking sports betting not dice throwing.
Your example is of a person straying from what he is expert at and into where he can't control the risk factors. But as you do say it's still all about controlling one's inner urge to gamble recklessly. |
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The past is an unreliable guide to the future.
I was only willing to risk my gains, not my capital. This gave the fund its own momentum. picking up speed whenthe winds behind us and trimming sailsin stormy weather. "He who runs away lives to fight another day". Quote by George Soros. |
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BUt how did he get his gains in the first place ?
By risking his start up capital of course. Chicken and egg methinks. |
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No, He risked 10% of the fund for the first 3 month.. (from the 1st bank account).
After which all trading was done from the 2nd bank account. Intrestingly he had multi year runs, and each year placed some of the funds back into the 1st account. His 30y average was just over 30%. He only had 1 loosing year in thay time! |
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Maybe your numbers are correct.
But on his famous sterling trade, I think he risked a lot more of his capital than you are suggesting. Of course he didn't see it as a risk. More of a one-way bet at the time. |
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yes re risked more than his capital then...
But he was well up for the year anyway. eg, he started the yearon 2.5bn. He was up to 4bn. Then he bet 10bn Ish on the Bank Of England. If it had gone against him, he would have lost about one bn. "More of a one-way bet at the time." Def, but he also knew that 8 or 9 other big hedgefunds were joining in at the same time. As a collective the group bet well over 150bn. I believe some of the US banks helped out as well. ;) |
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...my overall profit for gambling is minuscule.
Taken from thread starter's original post. |
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Wanted: Professional Gambler
Must exhibit ability to control emotions, fundamental understanding of probabilities, and over-inflated sense of self-value. You should be educated to degree level in Mathematics and Statistics so as to gain a big advantage over the lowlife opposition, and have a degree in Psychology. Creative writing also essential to enable gloating at the losers. The successful candidate can expect full health insurance (Nation Health), pension (State Pension) and a guaranteed income (Social Security). No knowledge of sports required, just a big ego. Black coat, sunglasses and wristwatch will be provided. Send your full CV with a covering letter explaining the reasons you expect to beat the average and how your superior education will be used to beat the opposition into submission. |
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Addendum:
In the likely event of multiple applications, the candidate with the best definition of "value" will be selected. |
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The Betfairy
You forgot to add that the successful applicant will have to provide his underwear which will require a long-term arrangement with M&S |
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own underwear
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perfect case senario
harry findlay don--yesterday accused nic coward of ruining his life ------------------------------------------ did he say this because he is stressed out and lost a few big wagers recently or he felt his reputation was violated in recent court case? |
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the professional gambler: black coat, sunglasses, racing post under one arm and an expensive wristwatch on the other
Geekish, obsessive, asocial, sits in underwear watching Countdown and lusting after Rachel. |
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Findlay was found to have twice laid bets on one of his horses, though on both occasions he had also placed much larger bets on the horse to win. In June, he was banned from racing for six months, but the penalty was reduced to a £4,500 fine on appeal the following month.
. http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2010/sep/09/harry-findlay-nic-coward-doncaster-row What's the problem. There's some rule you can't lay a horse you own, yet he has backed them for a much larger amount. WTF? |
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imo ..Most people LOSE because possibly 99.9% approach it the same way.and coupled with mathematics they are destined to lose.
You mention human nature and emotions..I believe those to be the main parts of the puzzle. Its like trading shares.. Human nature tells you to jump aboard when all and sundry are onboard the bus. But in reality those who think outside the box got off at the previous stop. As for emotions having to control them,I would say that you need to have NO Emotions. Thinking logically punters lose because of Human Error,backed th wrong horse.takes too shorter odds overall.Lays the wrong horse etc. Do the opposite,and profit from the mistakes of the majority. |
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Human nature tells you to jump aboard when all and sundry are onboard the bus.
The poor bus? |
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Human nature tells you to jump aboard when all and sundry are onboard the bus.
sounds like sheep and herd animals - I dont know if this is human nature, but I know many humans are like this |