Betting on "clean sheet"

On the other side, overestimating the posibillity of the underdog to score at least one goal is not the same as overestimating the posibillity of the underdog to win the game.

But why don't bettors overestimate the posibillity of the favourite to score? Maybe the odds is to low?

I'm fully aware that I may be doing something totally wrong when handicapping these lines (even though it does not sound like it)..

Let's take an example.



I assume the game will produce a total of 2,7 goals.



I also conclude that 65 % of the goals will be scored by the home team (and 35 % by the away team). This means that the home team is expected to produce 1,75 goals and the away team 0,95 goals. Let's assume I'm right about this.



From this it's fairly easy to find that the probability of the home team to score at least one goal is 83 % and the probabilit of the away team to score at least one goal is 58 %. From this I also know that the probability of "clean sheet" for the home team is 42 % and the probability of "clean sheet" for the away team is 17 %.



The thing is that I very often find value betting on clean sheet for the favourite team (in this case the home team), but not the underdog.



But let's assume I'm still right about the game producing 2,70 goals, but wrong about the other percentages. Let's assume that 60 % of the goals will be scored by the home team (and 40 % by the away team). This changes a lot. Now the probability of "clean sheet" for the home team is 34 % and the probability of "clean sheet" for the away team is 20 %. Now there’s no value in betting on clean sheet for the favourite team. But instead there’s value betting on the underdog!

When one of the teams is a clear favourite there seems to great value in betting on clean sheet on one of the teams, no mather what precentages I use. If I do what I think is correct the value is on betting on clean sheet for the favourite.


How could this be? If I'm doing this completely wrong why do my lines on clean sheet for the underdog always seem to agree fairly well with the lines on Betfair? To me this is a clear indication that I must be doing something right.

From this it's fairly easy to find that the probability of the home team to score at least one goal is 83 % and the probabilit of the away team to score at least one goal is 58 %.

How are you working that out?

Using the poisson distribution, the same way I use it when I conclude that if the game will produce a total of 2,7 goals there is a 49 % chance of the game to produce under 2,5 goals and a 6,8 % chance of the game to produce no goals (less than 0,5 goals).

One more thing. When I handicap these Clean sheet lines in an "open" game, with no obious favourite, my lines agree with the market. But once there is a rather clear favourite I find value betting on clean sheet for the favourite. The bigger favourite the more value I find.

Ok, I get slightly different values using poisson: 82.62% and 61.32%.

Can you give an example of a market for the games tomorrow where you think there might be value?

I checked my numbers once more, and youre right. I also get around 83 % and 61 %.


I can give you a market for this night where I think there's value.

The brazilian fotball match: Flamengo - Vitoria. Starting 2330 (Norwegian time).

I (and the market) assume the game will produce around 2,45 goals.

I assume Flamengo will score around 65 % of the goals and Vitoria 35 %.

From that I find (using poisson props) that there's a 57 % chance that Vitoria will score at least one goal, and therefore a 43 % chance of clean sheet for flamengo (meaning Vitoria will not score).

From this the correct odds on "yes" on Clean sheet Flemango should be 2,33. And 1,75 on "no".

Right now you can lay "no" at 1,63.

The odds on "clean sheet" Vitoria is "correct" using the same procedure.

Now I've probably told far too much. I hope I'm doing somethin wrong. If not everybody knows what to do :)

Clean Sheet Yes should be 2.64 imo

which makes no 1.61

Why should it be 2,64 and 1,61?

I don't deny it though. I just ask.

It should be added that I've so far lost a lot of money betting on clean sheets. But I've just started, and everything can happen in the short run..

well i didn't use poisson i just used the market as the price is already set in other places

Well, don't we all know what the market says? The question is whether or not the market is right?

What did you use specifically rocket?

Investor have you checked my example above (flamengo - vitoria)? Do you follow my calculations. What I haven't told is how I conclude that Flamengo will score around 65 % of the goals and Vitoria 35 %. That I will not tell. But actually it does not matter here. The thing is that I get "correct" odds on one of the clean sheet bets but not on the other. If I adjust the percentages (65 and 35 %) I still will find "value" on one or both bets.

Are you using the correct score market at all?

What do you mean?

I think the point being made is that the clean sheet price is coherent with the correct score market, and that the discrepancy you find would be apparent there too (ie its not specific to clean sheet prices)

I guess you mean the price on score 0-0 in the correct score market. Yes I agree that the price on clean sheet should be coherent with tthat price. But it's not. I check it. In fact, if I use the price on score 0-0 insted of the price on under 2,5 goals to decide the probabillity of goals being scored I tend to find even more value on clean sheet bets. Contrary to what I expected.

I think the answer to this lies in the nature of football itself and away from the odds/stats. If a strong favourite beats an inferior team well you usually find that a consolation goal is scored.

Not just 0-0.

Add up the probability of 0-0, 1-0, 2-0 and 3-0 and you get a price for the home team to keep a clean sheet.

How you deal with 4-0,5-0,6-0 is up to you.

The more I look into this the sure I am that I'm doing this correctly and that the market is wrong. At the same time it's realy hard to believe that the market can be that wrong. I'm really trying to be objective here. I don't wanna di this wrong and lose a lot of money. I don't have a big ego. I will admit it immediately if I'm wrong on this.

But here are some facts:

In a match with no clear favourite I get odds that agree with the market odds, for both teams when betting on clean sheet.

When there's a favourite my odds agree with the market when betting on clean sheet for the underdog, but I find value betting on clean sheet for the favourite. The market seem to overestimate the probability of the underdog to score.

If a change the way I handicap the games, for example by adjusting the estimated total score up or down, or adjusting the percentage of the total goals scored by each team, the value betting on clean sheet for the favourite may disappear. But then I instead find value betting on clean sheet for the underdog.

My 'guess' would be that you're wrong, as Poisson doesn't seem to get 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 quite right.

Another way you can check it, is by cross referencing the clean sheet odds with the both teams to score market.

If you multiply the probabilties of each team No clean sheet, it should lead to both teams to score. If your derived odds give a result that doesn't converge with this, it means that this market would be wrong also. You could then check this against correct score. If every market is in line, it either means the whole market is just wrong (possible but unlikely), or you are missing something.

I would use the same method as rocket. If there is a [team] total goals market with decent liquidity, you can add 4+ goals to get a more complete picture. This will affect the odds much more for the favourite than a longshot of course, that's why I originally asked if you used the Correct Score market.

I've tried cross referenced the clean sheet odds with the both teams to score market. I use the same calculations to bet on both these markets. I often find value betting on both teams to score. But this market seems to be far more correct than the clean sheet market.

Regarding poisson. I don't agree that poisson is not good enough here. The reason is as following: In his book "The definitive guide to betting on fotball, Kevin Pullein has found, using data from 14 permier league seasons, the relationship between the average number of goals scored by a team in a game and the percentages og games in which team scored spesific numbers of goals, including no goals.

His findings are very much in accordance with the numbers I get, using poisson.

BUT, i agree with you. It has to be very unlikely that the market is totally wrong. I really try to find out what mistake I might be doing. So far with no results.

There are two posibillities here.

1. The market is wrong.

2. Poisson does not work well enough when the expected number of goals is low, AND the market (if using poisson) knows that.


As I've said earlier. When there's a favourite my odds agree with the market when betting on clean sheet for the underdog, but I find value betting on clean sheet for the favourite. The market seem to overestimate the probability of the underdog to score.

This might be because the underdog often is expected to score less than one goal. And here is where the poisson might fail. Poisson underestimate the probability of a goal when the expected score of a team is low, and the lower the expected score is, the more poisson underestimate this probability.

I've noticed the same when a game is at it's last minutes. There often seem to be value betting on under towards the end of a match when using poisson. But is this because poisson fails on low numbers, underestimating the probability of a goal?

Anybody who knows if this is the case? Is this a problem with poisson? Is it useless when the goal expectation is low (lower than 1 goal)?

I've noticed the same when a game is at it's last minutes. There often seem to be value betting on under towards the end of a match when using poisson. But is this because poisson fails on low numbers, underestimating the probability of a goal?

Poisson is useless towards the end of a game, unless you adjust the expected goals in the formula to compensate for the fact that more goals tend to be scored in this period than any other equivalent period of the game. Of course you have to take time added on by the officials into account as well.

I should add that any general model will become less accurate towards the end of a game, as what is going on on the field of play can dramatically affect the probabilities of outcomes.

"Poisson is useless towards the end of a game", and you can forget the rest of the sentence. I've found that rather than trying to make it work, it's better to start from scratch and attempt to model it without poisson.

Concidering the fact that it is very unlikely that the market is that wrong, and the fact that this strategi so far has not been profitable, I think I'll stick to what I know works.

Re the ''clean sheet'' betting,
I have been betting occasionally on these markets, backing and
laying both the favourite and outsider when appropriate. I have
been quite successful, 10 wins from 17 bets so far since Aug 07.,
I only bet when the market is at least 20% below or above my
price, which isn't too often. I calculate my prices using goal
expectancy and goal superiority.

10 wins from 17 bets. But have you made a profit so far? It all depends on the odds. I don't count wins and losses. I count profit.

Anyway. 17 bets want tell you anything statistically. ANYTHING can happen after only 17 bets. That does not mean that you're not doing things right. But the fact that you've won 10 out of 17 bets does not tell you anything.

I've made around 250 bets so far. I've lost more than I've won. But even 250 bets is far from enough to conclude. I quit not because I've lost money. I quit because at the moment I'm not confident enough that I'm doing this correctly.

10 wins from 17 bets. But have you made a profit so far? (yes I have, otherwise what would be the point of my post ?) It all depends on the odds. I don't count wins and losses. I count profit.

Anyway. 17 bets want tell you anything statistically. (No, but over 14 years of the Premier League does) ANYTHING can happen after only 17 bets. That does not mean that you're not doing things right. (Thank you) But the fact that you've won 10 out of 17 bets does not tell you anything. (It tells me that I am doing things right)

I've made around 250 bets so far. (Over how long ?, I don't find that many qualifiers, and 250 wouldtake me about 2 years, besides Pullein has done the research for you, see page 50 of his book)) I've lost more than I've won. But even 250 bets is far from enough to conclude. I quit not because I've lost money. I quit because at the moment I'm not confident enough that I'm doing this correctly. (Perhaps your research on this type of bet was flawed) GL.

In fact I also use some of Pulleins research when handicapping these lines.

I've made 250 bets over a period of around 3 months. There are at least 300 in-play fotball matches each week where you can bet on clean sheet for both teams on each match. That means 600 possible bets every week. 3 months equals around 13 weeks. Wich again means nearly 8000 possible bets. So 250 is not that much. Over a period of two years there should be around 62.000 bets to handicap. If you handicap everyone (which of course is not realistic!) and only find value in 250, you only find value in around one in every 250 bet. Not much. Not worth it!

The fact that you've won 10 in 17 does not tell you that you're doing things right. You admit it yourself that 17 bets want tell you anything statistically. Maybe something else is telling you that you're doing things right. But NOT the staistics - the fact that you've made a profit after 17 bets.

You can bet blindly on whatever you want to bet on (even on a casino) and make a profit after 17 bets. It's not that unlikely that it couls happen with a little luck (you don't need that much luck either). But that does not tell you that you're doing things right. If you're betting blindly you couldn't possibly be doing things right, when the odds is against you.

livebetter, I don't bet on just ''clean sheets'', this season so far I have bet
on 'clean sheets'(17) 'correct scores' (1) 'match odds' (22) 'corner odds' (14)
overs/unders'(9) 'first corner' (5) 'total corners' (5) 'Both to score' (5)
'Total goals' (1) 'Corner spreads' (4) 83 markets in total, 50 profitable, 29
unprofitable, with 3 break evens., overall nicely in profit. I only look mainly
at tv matches and that keeps me nicely part time occupied. I've been in the
betting game a long time so I would politely thank you not to patronise me with references
to betting in casinos etc. My suggestion to you would be to specialise a bit more
instead of covering so many foreign matches as you must be doing when you refer
to 300 in play matches per week. I repeat, if you are behind after 250 bets then
your betting is flawed somewhere along the way.GL in what you do, but don't rely
on it (luck that is)

How can you be so sure that my betting i flawed because I'm behind after 250 bets? You don't know how much I'm behind. What if I'm just slightly behind, close to break even? 250 bets is not that much. I've earlier experienced to be way ahead after more than 700 bets, and then after 500 more bets (a total of 1200 bets)lost all the profit I had after 700 bets. That was possible even though I did exactly the same all along.

250 bets is normally far from enough to conclude. But of course it all depends on how much you've lost or won. If you've lost or won just a little you need far more bets to conlude, compared to having won or lost huge amounts.

I quit not because I've lost money. I quit because at the moment I'm not confident enough that I'm doing this correctly.

Your words. Does that not mean what you are doing is/was flawed ?

No. It means that I don't know whether or not it's flawed. If I was more sure on what I'm doing I would probably keep on even though I've lose money so far. But the fact that I've lost so far makes it more probable that what I'm doing is flawed, compared to having been in profit. But it does not prove anything.

ok

Forgot to mention that I had a huge profit after around 50 bets

A lucky run no doubt.

Maybe.

But I'm still a bit confused about these clean ****, sorry clean sheet, bets.

The way I handicap them I experience the following: When to equally strong or almost equally strong teams meet I never find any value. My lines agree with the market.

When there's a clear favourite, where the odds on the favourite is around 2,00 or lower, I often find value betting on clean sheet for the favourite. When there's a huge favourite I often find huge value betting on clean sheet for the favourite. However my lines on clean sheet for the underdog always agree with the market.

I use poisson props. And that seems to work well as long as my lines agree with the market, which is always the case when betting on clean sheet for the underdog. The market seems to do the same, except when the expected number of goals is low, which is the case when betting on clean sheet for the favourite (when there is a clear favourite). Then the expected number of goals for the underdog is often below 1.

My only explanation is that according to the market, poisson underestimate the number of goals scored by the underdog, and this is the reason why I find "value" here.

But I've done some research here. Gone through a huge number of games (several thousand), and poisson works pretty well on low numbers also. Poisson underestimate the expected number of goals a bit when the numbers are low, but far as much as the market means.

Correction: but NOT far as much as the market means

I'm puzzled as to how you manage to check so many past results, without
knowing the 'clean sheet' betting on these matches, but whatever way
you do it, 10/10 for persistence. I simply work out my own way the
goal expectancy for each side, then refer it to a chart I have developed.
From that point, I only bet if there is at least 20% up or down, indicating
a back or a lay, needless to say I don't get many which I am not unhappy
about, as I've said before that if I am close to the market, I think I am right.
So far this season, from tv matches, I have had just 16 bets, 10 successful,
for a very decent profit.GL.

Lets take an example. Tomorows game between Chelsea and Marseille.

Match odds. Around 1,35 on Chelsea and 13 on Marseille.

Assuming the odds are fairly correct one can conclude that Chelsea will score 81 % of the goals in the match and Marseille 19 % of the goals. It does not matter how I reach these numbers. The point is that my numbers always agree with the market when there's no clear favourite. Also my numbers almost always agree with the market when betting on clean sheet for the underdog, which also is the case in this bet.

Let's assume I'm correct so far. Maybe you also agree with me so far?

Accoring to the over/under market, total goals index market and correct score market the game will produce a total of around 3,05 goals.

This again means that Chelsea will score 2,47 goals (81 % av 3,05) and Marseille 0,58 goals (19 % of 3,05)

Assuming Chelsea is expected to score 2,47 goals, there is according, to poisson, a 92 % probability that Chelsea will score at least one goal. Wich again means there is a 8 % probability of clean sheet for Marseille. And so far the market totally agree. The odds on clean sheet for Marseille is around 12.

Assuming Marseille is expected to score 0,58 goals, there is according, to poisson, a 44 % probability that Marseille will score at least one goal. Wich again means there is a 56 % probability of clean sheet for Chelsea. But here the market totally disagree. Correct odds should be around 1,79 when the probability is 56 %. But he odds on clean sheet for Chelsea is around 2,15.

The only explanation is that the market don't trust poisson when numbers are low, in this case 0,58. According to the market there actually is a 54 % probability that Marseille will score at least one goal, meaning a 46 % probability of clean sheet for Chelsea.

Any comments? I don't expect you to reveal your methods. But are you doing this very differently?

I check past results at www.nifs.no

Based on your goal superiority (1.6) and expectancy,(3.05)
I would have Chelsea up for 2.325 and Marseille on 0.725,
indicating (to me) clean sheets 2.06 and 10.25 respectively
for Chelsea and their opponents.

At www.nifs.no you can for example check the average away score for e team over a whole season. This number is often low for bad teams in low scoring leagues. It could for example be 0,60 goals on average in away matches. I then find what poisson says about the probability of at least one goal being scored when the expected number of goals cored by a team is 0,60, and compare that with the facts, meaning percetage of games in which the team scored 0 goals when average score is (in this case) 0,60. I've done this for more than 6000 matches. And the results are clear. Poisson slightly underestimate the probability of at least one goal being scored when numbers are low. (When the average numers of goals scored by a team is between 0,40 and 0,90 goals). But not by far as much as the market assume.

What does poisson say for 2.325 and 0.725 respectively ?

I don't know how you reach the numbers 2.325 for Chelsea 0.725 for Marseille.

Anyway your numbers indicate value betting on clean sheet for Marseille. You should get 12 or maybe 12,5.

The funny thing is that you should also get value betting on clean sheetfor Chelsea. At least 2,15. Maybe 2,20. If your numbers indicate that you can find value betting on clean sheet for both teams, then something is probably wrong.

How do you arrive at 81% and 19% respectively ?

Sorry, but I feel I've told enough. Some "secrets" I'd like to keep.

These precentages are not the "clue" here anyway. As I've told, my numbers always agree with the market when there's no clear favourite. Also my numbers almost always agree with the market when betting on clean sheet for the underdog, which also is the case in this bet.

Lets say that these were not correct. It would only mean that I either would find even more value betting on clean sheet for Chelsea, OR that value could disappear and I've would insted find value betting on clean sheet for Marseille. For example if I reached the probabilities 75 % and 25 % insted, then the odds on clean sheet Chelsea would agree with the market, but I would insted find value betting on clean sheet on Marseille, as the numbers would indicate correct odds to be 9,90.

The reason I ask about the 81 and 19 percentages is because that is
where we differ, as by your 1.35 Chelsea and 3.05 goals suggest to
me 73 and 27, not that I actually want to know your method. For what
it's worth I slightly disagree with you on the goal expectancy also
but not by much. Re Chelsea clean sheet, I would be a backer at
around 2.25, Marseille a backer at 12.5. GL.

If you differ from the market so much, have you not
considered that the market may be more correct than
you are ? Just a thought.

I guess you reach the percentages 73 and 27 by taking 1 and divide by the odds on Chelsea, 1/1,36 = 73. Meaning Chelsea has a 73 % winning chance, and Marseille 27 %. Is that correct?

If you differ from the market so much, have you not
considered that the market may be more correct than
you are ? Just a thought.
--------------

Of course. If I was sure I was right and the market wrong I would put everything else aside and BET.

The ting is that I'm really trying ti find out what I might do wrong, so far with no results. Everything I do seem to confirm that I'm right. But I could'nt possibly be that right, and the market that wrong.

Suddenly all the clean sheet bets on Chelsea vs Marseille are gone..

Yeah, most of the markets have been cleared for that game atm

Lets take another example. Tomorrows match Ajax vs Milan.

Using the same procedure, my lines totally agree with the market. How about yours?

I have not looked at what is on offer but I would
have Ajax 3.60 with Milan at 3.75. Am I anywhere near ?

Re your post at 11.06 the answer is no.

One of the problems of Poisson is, that it assumes that the number of goals of the favorite is independent from the number of goals of the underdog. That isn't true. So if there is a clear favorite, there is a big probability they will score some goals. And when the favorite scores some goals, it is more likely that the underdog also scores, compared with the Poisson distribution.

Or, when the favorite has a clear advantage (2-0, 3-0, ...), their defensive capacities go down, because of that advantage.

I have not looked at what is on offer but I would
have Ajax 3.60 with Milan at 3.75. Am I anywhere near ?
------------------------

According to my lines correct odds for Ajax is 3,53 and for Milan 3,82.

What precentages do you use in this match? I use 52 and 48.

[b]JosTheelen[/b], I agreewith you entirely. A good example was last
week Chelsea v Blackpool. I backed the Chelsea for a clean sheet
and collected, but watching the match I felt incredibly lucky
in the second half. When a goal being scored is meaningless, it's
more likely to happen for the reasons you mention.

One of the problems of Poisson is, that it assumes that the number of goals of the favorite is independent from the number of goals of the underdog. That isn't true. So if there is a clear favorite, there is a big probability they will score some goals. And when the favorite scores some goals, it is more likely that the underdog also scores, compared with the Poisson distribution.

Or, when the favorite has a clear advantage (2-0, 3-0, ...), their defensive capacities go down, because of that advantage.
----------------------------

Good point. I've given this a thought. But the thing is that the numbers I use is derived from the over/under market. Let's take the Chelsea-Marseille match, discussed above.

My numbers nidicate that Chelsea will score 2,47 goals (81 % av 3,05) and Marseille 0,58 goals (19 % of 3,05). According to the over/under market the game as a total will produce 3,05 goals. The Clean sheet market seem to agree with me that Chelsea will score 2,47 goals. But if Marseille actually should score more than 0,58 goals, due to what you wrote, then why is the game still to produce 3,05 goals, according to the market? Why not more goals?

My numbers nidicate that Chelsea will score 2,47 goals (81 % av 3,05) and Marseille 0,58 goals (19 % of 3,05). According to the over/under market the game as a total will produce 3,05 goals. The Clean sheet market seem to agree with me that Chelsea will score 2,47 goals. But if Marseille actually should score more than 0,58 goals, due to what you wrote, then why is the game still to produce 3,05 goals, according to the market? Why not more goals?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Because it works both ways. When Chelsea has scored, it is more likely that Marseille will score. But when Chelsea does not score, it is also less likely that Marseille will score. They will try to keep it 0-0, and attack even less than normal and defense more rigorous.

So on the one hand, the average number of goals will increase, because of the first effect. But the average number of goals will decrease, because of the second effect. The two effects work in opposite directions.

My numbers nidicate that Chelsea will score 2,47 goals (81 % av 3,05) and Marseille 0,58 goals (19 % of 3,05).
----------------------------------------------

I have total goals 3.01 with Chelsea 2.318 and Marseille 0.696.  Those figures are simply derived from match odds and over odds.

Thanks. This was very helpfull.

According to Kevin Pullein (The definitive guide to fotball betting) the probability of a team scoring goes up with 3 % when being under with one goal, compared to when the result is 0-0. If that is correct this effect is not big enough to explain why the market odds is that far away from the numbers I reach.

Have you explored the cean sheet market? Do you feel it's mostly correct?

One of the problems of Poisson is, that it assumes that the number of goals of the favorite is independent from the number of goals of the underdog. That isn't true. So if there is a clear favorite, there is a big probability they will score some goals. And when the favorite scores some goals, it is more likely that the underdog also scores, compared with the Poisson distribution.

Or, when the favorite has a clear advantage (2-0, 3-0, ...), their defensive capacities go down, because of that advantage.
------------------------------------

Even if there's not a clear favourite there's always a big probability that a goal will be scored. But I guess that once there is a pretty high probability that a team will lead with two or more goals they will start to relax. Then they can accept a goal being scored against them and still win.

According to Kevin Pullein (The definitive guide to fotball betting) the probability of a team scoring goes up with 3 % when being under with one goal, compared to when the result is 0-0. If that is correct this effect is not big enough to explain why the market odds is that far away from the numbers I reach.

Have you explored the clean sheet market? Do you feel it's mostly correct?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
There is some dependence between the number of goals of both teams. When there is a big difference between both number of goals (like 3-0, 1-4, ...) the probability that the difference is reduced is bigger than with 2 independent Poisson distributions indicate. How much the differences will change, I don't know.

I don't know much about the clean sheet market. I just look at what I think are the 4 main markets (Match Odds, Under Over 2.5, Correct Score and Half Time/Full Time). Mainly because those markets are so liquid. When loads of people bet, the odds give a good indication what the market thinks. I assume however, that a less liquid market like the clean sheet market has flaws in it. And people also seem to make errors when they bet on games with big favorites and underdogs.

I have total goals 3.01 with Chelsea 2.318 and Marseille 0.696.  Those figures are simply derived from match odds and over odds.
---------------------

Right now my numbers are Chelsea 2,39 and Marseille 0,62 goals. Derived from match odds and over/under odds. Total goals around 3.

The market seems to agree on clean sheet Marseille. On Chelsea however the market totally disagree. My odds says 1,85 on yes for clean sheet Chelsea and 2,18 on no.

The market odds are in fact the excact opposite.

I realize that I'm not doing this correctly. At the same time this seems to be very hard to do correctly. There seems to be no excact way to do this correct. It depends on so many factors. I wonder how correct the market is..

I realize that I'm not doing this correctly. At the same time this seems to be very hard to do correctly. There seems to be no excact way to do this correct. It depends on so many factors. I wonder how correct the market is..
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Maybe you found something profitable. Just like you wrote, it is very hard to correctly estimate it. So a good way is to gamble 100 times with your method and see how much you will earn (or loose).

Can anyone tell me how I actually place a clean-sheet yes/no bet in BetFair?  Looking on Sportsbook and Exchange for this option I cannot see it anywhere under any of the games I have looked at. Thanks

Morning the hook, on the bigger games there is a team to score over 0.5 goals market, I know it's normally on the premier league TV games, but Betfair haven't added it yet for Sunday's games (on the exchange).

They look to be up now (eg on Nottingham Forest / Chelsea).