Tackling A Losing Run

YOU SHOULD HAVE WON BUNDLES.

Do you know where/what the LAY Button is.

Kohaku,

Yes I put up IR lays for some of them for my stake but that's as far as I go with that.I don't have fast pics etc.

What strategy do you use ?.

I only have slow pics.

IR Laying at moment.see General.Winners Dont Discuss.

Will revert back to Back/Lay IR when the turf Flat finishes.

Always put in 2 IR Lays.1st to get stake back,2nd for any profit..

The bottom line is DONT LOSE.

Thanks for that kohaku.I'll have to take a serious look at operating that way in future.

Similar to the stock market these days I suppose.Preserving capital being number one priority and not being too greedy with profits.

Did you believe that the horses that won could win?

If so , why not back all the horses in race that can win.....and LAY one that you believe won't win.

If you are good enough , then you will win often enough to make a profit daily.

Most of a BACKER's time is spent trying to find where the winner will come from........so why not try this and see how it goes.

GL

Of course when your luck chamges you will be cursing yourself for laying off,sod's law.

Just had a look at TRAFFIC GUARD race.....and it was no surprise that one got beat .......

It was 6-5 F....and it was a lay more than a back as many factors were against it tonight!

The horse that won was an amazing price considering it had won more races in last 6 races than any horse in the race....

TG won race last year ....but going was totally different.....

So your selection was IMO ...just bad ....nothing to do with "bad luck"......or things conspiring against you etc etc ..

Just avoid picking "bad selections" .....and this will improve your chances of having to deal with long losing runs.

I bought a laminator. Best thing.

Thanks for the advice DFC.I will take it on board.

Thing is TG was by far the shortest priced of those 2nds(I took @15/8 btw).I could understand and quite happily accept it if they were bad selections but the thing is they weren't,especially considering they all went odds on IR.

I've been backing for over 20 years now and have always come back from a losing run but for some reason this time seems different....just looking for a way back to ''normal'' results.

Do you have reason to believe that you would not have the same runs of bad luch as before but with two or three of them back to back?

It was fav.....so the perception of punters would be...if it made a move to try to win....the odds would shorten....but the factors were well against that one winning.

I know it won its' last race....but that was in a lower class race at a far shorter distance.......last year's going gave it a chance to win at the distance on Saturday......but the going yesterday was just against it.

Of the first 2 home ...which one was the better odds...and also had a better race record over last 6 races.....only 1 answer.

Most of the ones I lay .....go close to winning....but don't win. It tends to be the horse that can't win that takes on the winner.....but does not win. The other jockeys I suspect make sure they don't go too close to horse that wins, allowing the horse which is unlikely to win to be placed.

I can post say races done at GOODWOOD today to let you see what I mean -

2.00

Selection Odds Stake(£) Bid type Placed Profit/loss(£)
Gallagher  16.00 2.00 Back 28-Aug-10 13:42  -2.00
Manassas  6.80 3.00 Back 28-Aug-10 13:42  -3.00
Mata Keranjang  9.20 3.00 Back 28-Aug-10 13:43  -3.00
Seek The Fair Land  32.00 2.00 Back 28-Aug-10 13:42  -2.00
Suruor  4.90 28.00 Lay 28-Aug-10 13:43  28.00  FINISHED 3RD
*Average odds: On  Off  Back subtotal: -10.00
Lay subtotal: 28.00
Market subtotal: 18.00
Commission @ 3.28%: 0.59
Net Market Total: 17.41
==========================================

2.30

Selection Odds Stake(£) Bid type Placed Profit/loss(£)
Bergo  17.18 9.00 Lay 28-Aug-10 14:21  9.00 WAS 2ND AT 14-1 SP SHORT HEAD
Deportment  65.00 2.00 Back 28-Aug-10 14:20  -2.00
Drunken Sailor  2.30 8.00 Back 28-Aug-10 14:21  10.40
Wajir  3.75 15.00 Back 28-Aug-10 14:20  -15.00
Wajir  1.66 16.00 Lay 28-Aug-10 14:31  16.00
*Average odds: On  Off  Back subtotal: -6.60
Lay subtotal: 25.00
Market subtotal: 18.40
Commission @ 3.32%: 0.61
Net Market Total: 17.79
===========================================================
3.05

Selection Odds Stake(£) Bid type Placed Profit/loss(£)
Poets Voice  3.30 24.00 Lay 28-Aug-10 14:57  -55.20 GOT STUNG BY THIS ONE
*Average odds: On  Off  Back subtotal: 0.00
Lay subtotal: -55.20
Market subtotal: -55.20
Commission : 0.00
Net Market Total: -55.20
=========================================================

3.40



Selection Odds Stake(£) Bid type Placed Profit/loss(£)
Cape Dollar  6.00 3.00 Back 28-Aug-10 15:20  -3.00
Cochabamba  13.50 2.00 Back 28-Aug-10 15:21  -2.00
Date With Destiny  5.60 24.00 Lay 28-Aug-10 15:21  24.00 FINISHED 6TH
Princess Severus  21.00 2.00 Back 28-Aug-10 15:20  -2.00
Theyskens Theory  2.50 15.00 Back 28-Aug-10 15:20  22.50   WON
*Average odds: On  Off  Back subtotal: 15.50
Lay subtotal: 24.00
Market subtotal: 39.50
Commission @ 3.29%: 1.30
Net Market Total: 38.20
===============================================================

4.15 PASSED ON RACE
=============================================================


4.50

Selection Odds Stake(£) Bid type Placed Profit/loss(£)
Kerrys Requiem  13.00 4.00 Back 28-Aug-10 16:33  -4.00
Mistic Magic  9.00 24.00 Lay 28-Aug-10 16:33  24.00 WAS LAST
Perfect Flight  12.00 4.00 Back 28-Aug-10 16:33  -4.00
*Average odds: On  Off  Back subtotal: -8.00
Lay subtotal: 24.00
Market subtotal: 16.00
Commission @ 3.31%: 0.53
Net Market Total: 15.47

=======================================================

5.25

Selection Odds Stake(£) Bid type Placed Profit/loss(£)
Juwireya  18.50 18.00 Lay 28-Aug-10 17:10  18.00 WAS 6TH
Lis Pendens  17.00 2.00 Back 28-Aug-10 17:08  -2.00
Mighty Mambo  4.30 3.00 Back 28-Aug-10 17:10  -3.00
Miniyamba  4.70 3.00 Back 28-Aug-10 17:09  -3.00
Silver Colors  9.60 4.00 Back 28-Aug-10 17:09  -4.00
Viviani  4.30 3.00 Back 28-Aug-10 17:09  -3.00
Weliketobouggie  14.50 3.00 Back 28-Aug-10 17:09  -3.00
*Average odds: On  Off  Back subtotal: -18.00
Lay subtotal: 18.00
Market subtotal: 0.00
Commission : 0.00
Net Market Total: 0.00
===================================================================



Pretty "ordinary" returns for me from GOODWOOD.........really should have caught that 33-1 SP winner in last ....but was feeling a bit knackered and decided to leave that one out the backs ...though it did have factors in favour!

You can see that i layed a 14-1 SP shot that was a close head 2nd.....but it did not win.

So was approximately 33 pounds up at GOODWOOD.......backing and laying in most of races there. may not seem like much, but still made about 114 pounds over all from racing ....which is ok with small stakes relatively speaking.

With your experience you should be able to do similar type bets......and once you get some experience of laying some...then a fair chance a profit can be made.

Gl with bets.

DFC,

Thanks for taking the time to make such a comprehensive reply.Very interesting stuff and has provided me with a lot to consider.
That's a very acceptable return for your day's transactions.

I think I need to adopt a change of strategy and go the way of backing and laying utilized by you and many of the posters on here.Having always been a backer it'll take a while to change the mindset and come up with a method of some sort but as always anything worth having needs the effort put in.

Kohaku is absolutely right in saying that I should have made a good profit from all those 2nd's.


Thanks again and good luck if you're playing today.

Ultimately there is no difference between backing and laying imo. If anything backing is better because of the 20%ish  better odds on Betfair as compared to SP.
Without wishing to take issue with Kohaku , a long-standing Betfairian, what he is suggesting is a fudge imo.
You were on the right path to start with, apart from the virtual racing of course.

ST..

Fudge with a high 85% + SR is very tasty.

ST,

Yes as I've said I've always been a backer and will remain so but I think laying for the purposes of stake protection and/or profit whatever the outcome would mitigate the wearing nature of a protracted losing run.
Has to be balanced against reduced returns from any winners but in my view the trade off would be worth it if done properly.

The virtual racing bit was a joke.....I can't imagine anything more soul-destroying.