backing horses to win

Backing.............is "better" than.....

Absolute genius OP. I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

I reckon swift-tuttle has more to add to his opening comments.

Just biding his time at the moment imo.

not that much more t2r
it's going to need testing over a long period of time and that's what I'm doing so I'll let you know in a year or so

I can see this one being a real pot boiler.

I can understand that this is not everybody's cup of tea.

Funnily enough though, if you asked the same people whether discipline was important in betting they would answer very definitely in the affirmative. It's just that it's difficult to maintain in practical day to day activities.

I can put my daily results up here (after the event) if observers wish. Refinements of the staking plan and the 'period under scrutiny' would then become evident.

Always good to put up daily results after the event..

you either mean that

1) results must necessarily come after the event, this being the nature of results;

or

2) some aftertimimg would take place and it could not be guaranteed that the results displayed would be accurate.

re 1) you're absolutely right, my wording left something to be desired there

re 2) that would be a possibility but I have no motivation to do it. That would have to be taken on trust as this is simply a test of an idea. If there is no interest, I won't put them up anyway.

To be honest, I couldn't really see how you could generate interest here unless you could categorically state that you felt you had an edge of some sort and was reasonably sure you'd make a profit AND you was going to work to level stakes, perhaps raising the amount of the stake when the bank had increased by a set amount & so on.

Anything else is just going to be an exercise in massaging your ego until you crash & burn. I don't mean to p!ss on your bonfire. Get your homework done properly & then do this imho.

Wimpish martingale?? Is it something like adding a quarter of your previous loss to the next win target?

Sorry ST .....my post above was after "a few"

BACKING is "better" than laying, though varying bets from race to race, based on shape of race etc, is a better approach IMO. LAYING is just as useful a way to bet.......but more "expensive2 when you get them "wrong".

If you are "good" at selecting winners, at "good" odds, then there is no need for a "Martingale-ish" approach......

GL over the year.

hope you had a good night DFC

What I'm trying to prove is that with a disciplined approach and the right staking plan, the selections from a backing point of view don't matter that much. Obviously, you want to pick horses that have some sort of chance of winning at reasonably decent prices.

The increase in daily level stakes would kick in if a cumulative loss was being shown in a consecutive 3 day period. This would be the trigger for a period of scrutiny commencing with the 3 days that have shown a loss. The reason I called it wimpish martingale was that for the 4th day selections, the daily level stakes would be increased by a small percentage and a re-assessment taken after the 4th day's results.
If a cumulative loss was still being shown, then the level stakes for the 5th day would be increased by a greater percentage than for the 4th day but still nowhere near the 'risk of ruin' full martingale approach.
This would continue until the cumulative P/L for the period under scrutiny showed a profit in which case, normal level stakes would be reverted to.

Just off to do more homework.

If youhave a winning strategy it will win with martingale.  If you have a losing strategy martingale may help you to delude yourself for a while.

Swift - you are doing well in naps comp so in theory you will win, as long as you avoid long losing run...which can happen if say you are not fully concentrating on horse racing etc

Last August I was busy working and never paid much attention to selecting naps etc ....and had a bad losing month in comp...something like -26 points.....I just was not concentrating enough and the results were what you can expect when not keeping up with pace of races from day to day etc.

I'm sure you will make profit this way ....but you really need to select many winners daily to do really well, or getting high odds winners frequently. 1 winner now and then means staking would have to be far higher......and this is when you can lose as you know.

GL with selections ....I'm sure you can make this pay.

Why not use your nap selections for purpose of this thread??? No after-timing required and nobody can then criticise you as you are bound to get winners....as you are in good form.

catfloppo
   
If youhave a winning strategy it will win with martingale.
..........................................................

imo this only correct if you have deep pockets. Every strategy, no matter how good, is subject to short term fluctuations that can result in a losing run.

g/l

Yes, you're quite right.  I was trying to make the point that martingale cant make a losing strategy win.  I'd never really considered that it could ruin a winning one - but it could.

I think the reality of Betfair is that many short / medium term winners are using a form of martingale to varied extents. Once the inevitable happens and they lose the lot when the chase didn't work, they put it down to 'not having enough discipline'.