We want to share an important update with our Betfair Community users.
Over the coming months, the Betfair Community platform will be winding down. The final active day for the platform will be December 21st. From December 22nd, users will no longer be able to access the platform.
Your discussions, insights, engagement, and, most importantly, feedback have helped shape the platform and guided innovation. Your feedback continues to be important to us, and we will continue to listen via our dedicated feedback channels, as well as through product testing and innovations.
To share your feedback and experience, visit: https://support.betfair.com/app/home
General Betting
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Hi there, my apologies if this is similar to recent threads.
I am back testing a horse racing system- very laborious- not an Adrian Massey based one. After 1000 bets it is showing 1% profit on turnover- which doesn't sound much- but it produces approx 20 bets per day so has real potential.
I don't trust it though. I fear that the next 1000 could prove it to be a flop, or the 1000 after that etc. I don't know where to stop back testing it.
My question is - what sample size can you trust when back testing? I lay horses in the 2.0 to 6.0 odds range. All results are at betfair sp
I am back testing a horse racing system- very laborious- not an Adrian Massey based one. After 1000 bets it is showing 1% profit on turnover- which doesn't sound much- but it produces approx 20 bets per day so has real potential.
I don't trust it though. I fear that the next 1000 could prove it to be a flop, or the 1000 after that etc. I don't know where to stop back testing it.
My question is - what sample size can you trust when back testing? I lay horses in the 2.0 to 6.0 odds range. All results are at betfair sp
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 8
|
By:
It is more important to identify why you believe you have an edge imo.
If you have been able to consistently lay (or back) at prices that are favourable to you then you have something. If you intend to do it daily for the long term you have to know why you have an edge if it is to be sustainable. |
|
By:
Yes interesting response. I had an inkling that theremay be an advantage using the strategy I am testing, which led me to test it in the first place. I amnot convinced however. My fear is ihavefound a 1000 bet sequence that is doing well in a long term losing sequence of 10s of thousands. Or am I being too negative?
|
|
By:
Back testing systems is dangerous with horse racing markets. The goal posts are moving all the while. If it's 20 per day, then you have obviously gone more than one year back which at least covers the complete season(s).
If it is showing a profit, you would be far better using small stakes in the real world for a couple of months. You would soon be able to compare what was really happening with the system compared to what you would have expected based on your back testing. |
|
By:
Muqbil
With respect......... 1000 bets @ approx 20 bets per day = approx 50 days testing |
|
By:
lol
 So fifty days, forget it! Try the system for small stakes for six months and see how it is going. |
|
By:
The main thing is for a laying system - have you factored in commission?
If you haven't, on those figures it's a loser. |
|
By:
Yes, commission of 5% factored in
|
|
By:
I'd say its viable if you are a PC payer. If not, I would work hard to refine it before putting it into practice.
BFSP is great - try betting 100 stakes or even 250 stakes at SP. You move the SP, and your 1% would very soon be wiped out (if indeed its a genuine edge, and there's a worrying probability that it's not!). |