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General Betting
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I have been maintaining some Elo based ratings for the past couple of years, and have had some success with them especially in the Premier League, Ligue 1 and rather bizarrely, the Scottish First division.
Last week, the ratings had Chelsea 2.5 goal favourites to win at Wigan Athletic. One of the comments on my blog was that "I can confidently state a team has never been a 2.5 goal favourite away from home in the Premiership. And nor are Chelsea this weekend."
It was suggested that this prediction was "at odds with all statistical experts in this field."
The fact that there has never been a 2.5 goal favourite away in the PL before doesn't seem to me to be a logical reason to dismiss -2.5 for future events, but I would appreciate more input on this subject. The guy can't seem to understand this point. Am I wrong on this?
I would add that this is the first time my system has generated a 2.5 goal away favourite and only because Wigan are bottom rated and in poor form, and Chelsea are top rated in good form. (Form in this case extends back to last season which is of course, not ideal).
Last week, the ratings had Chelsea 2.5 goal favourites to win at Wigan Athletic. One of the comments on my blog was that "I can confidently state a team has never been a 2.5 goal favourite away from home in the Premiership. And nor are Chelsea this weekend."
It was suggested that this prediction was "at odds with all statistical experts in this field."
The fact that there has never been a 2.5 goal favourite away in the PL before doesn't seem to me to be a logical reason to dismiss -2.5 for future events, but I would appreciate more input on this subject. The guy can't seem to understand this point. Am I wrong on this?
I would add that this is the first time my system has generated a 2.5 goal away favourite and only because Wigan are bottom rated and in poor form, and Chelsea are top rated in good form. (Form in this case extends back to last season which is of course, not ideal).
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You're not wrong - if it can possibly happen, it will at some point. I also read a quote on here recently which went along the lines of "Results inform statistics, statistics don't inform results" - apologies if that's not quite right.
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To claim either team is in good or poor form is stretching it given the limited sample of recent matches.
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I didn't mean to claim that either team was in good or bad form, only that there is a form factor used in the formula for predicting the superiority, and early in the season, that figure includes matches from the previous season - albeit with low weighting.
My question is whether it is unreasonable, given the lack of parity in the Premier League these days, for an away team to be considered a 2.5 goals or more favourite. I don't see a problem with it myself. Just wondered what others thought. I liked the "Results inform statistics, statistics don't inform results" quote. |
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Interesting debate. I certainly can't remember having seen a 2 and a half goal favourite away from home.
Home advantage is obviously important here. For a team to be as strong as a 2.5 goal favourite away from home suggests they are significantly higher than 2.5 goals better than the team they face. 3 goals would seem to be a reasonable enough approximation. I have a number of different ratings systems for the PL and have never had a "top to bottom" difference of anywhere in the region of 3 goals. Off the top of my head, something like 2.25 goals is around the maximum I can recall at any moment in time. I suspect Blackpool are likely to get close to surpassing that number at some stage this year but, for now, they haven't. The spreads and Asian markets for this match I think had Chelsea as around 1.75 goal favourites which can be used as a good guide to the "correct" number. If your ratings made them 2.5 goal favourites then I would respectfully suggest you need to check your system for possible errors. To be 0.75 goals out compared to what can be considered a pretty efficient market should raise a red flag. It's a huge difference and, again with respect, the market makers and market movers are likely more accurate than a more casual bettor. It may be worth checking the spread firm's supremacy markets to get a good idea of how supremacies tie into prices etc. As to whether there will be a 2.5 goal away favourite in the future in the PL. Well, of course it's possible - anything is at some moment in time. However, it is pushing the boundaries and can be considered highly unlikely given all historical evidence unless there are major changes to how the make-up of the PL is determined. |
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Thanks for that excellent response, and no offence taken at any of your comments.
Personally, I feel that the Premier League has even more disparity now than ever before. Six goal thrashings used to be a rarity in the top league, but last season there were several of that number and more, and already three this season. Were Blackpool to face Chelsea at home tomorrow, Chelsea would be 2 goal favourites, but by the time they play in March, that may well be higher. I do have Chelsea -3 this weekend for Stoke's visit. Should I up that to -5.5? |
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cpfc4me, when you say ''2.5 goal favourite'', do you mean 2.5 goals superior, as in spread betting ?
The reason I ask is because the leading spread firm had Chelsea 1.8 over Wigan, which is a big disparity from your figure, and they are also quite good at what they do. Any comment ? |
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Apologies to ''the silverback'' as I hadn't read your post before posting
myself at 10:15. Sorry !!  |
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cpfc4me Joined: 30 Mar 04
Replies: 152 24 Aug 10 04:10 Personally, I feel that the Premier League has even more disparity now than ever before. Six goal thrashings used to be a rarity in the top league, but last season there were several of that number and more, and already three this season. Were Blackpool to face Chelsea at home tomorrow, Chelsea would be 2 goal favourites, but by the time they play in March, that may well be higher. I do have Chelsea -3 this weekend for Stoke's visit. Should I up that to -5.5? Agree with the disparity comment but think it will only apply to certain teams. i.e. IMO, the Newcastle 6-0 over Villa was one-off. Wigan, Burnley, Hull that I can remember from last season suffered some terrible thrashings and I think same will occur again to the teams at the bottom. Your stats may well be ahead of their time - very useful in this game! |