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21 Aug 10
21:31
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16 Sep 06
If I bet on under 2.5 in play, at say 1.5 and in a couple of minutes the price falls to 1.4, does that mean I've got a value bet?
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It's likely you have - part of the bet was that they would not score in the time it took to drop to 1.4, so part of the bet has already been shown as correct.
I suppose I've also got a terrible value bet - 10 minutes earlier the price would have maybe been 1.9
You will NEVER know if a single bet is/was value. Only your long-term profit will show you if you are able to constantly find value bets.
Yes it was!
Is betting 1.04 on under 2.5 when 0-0 with 20 minutes left better value because within a couple of minutes the odds will drop to 1.02, so you've got 100% value in 2 minutes?
Is betting 1.04 on under 2.5 when 0-0 with 20 minutes left better value because within a couple of minutes the odds will drop to 1.02, so you've got 100% value in 2 minutes?
If I bet on under 2.5 in play, at say 1.5 and in a couple of minutes the price falls to 1.4, does that mean I've got a value bet?
There are two correct answers:
1; Yes.
2; Probably
Which answer you choose depends on what kind of value you're talking about. At the point at which the odds have fallen to 1.4 your bet has an absolute value- you can lay off at that point and secure a concrete profit, the absolute value of your bet is that profit- this gives you answer 1. However, when gamblers talk about "value" they usually mean expected value, which is a different thing. Expected value addresses the likely value of a bet (either positive or negative) at the moment it is struck. In this case the price movement shows that it is likely that you got a better price than the true price of the selection, so you can say that you've probably struck a positive expected value bet (answer 2). The fact that your bet now has an absolute value supports your case. As has been said above there is no way of knowing whether a particular bet is or was value, you will never know for sure, but "probably" is a sensible answer. This uncertainty causes some people to believe that value is subjective. This is wrong, it may be unknown, but it is not subjective.
It should be clear that whether a bet wins or not has no bearing at all on the expected value of a bet at the moment at which it is struck. Anyone who doesn't understand this simply doesn't understand the concept of expected value.
There are two correct answers:
1; Yes.
2; Probably
Which answer you choose depends on what kind of value you're talking about. At the point at which the odds have fallen to 1.4 your bet has an absolute value- you can lay off at that point and secure a concrete profit, the absolute value of your bet is that profit- this gives you answer 1. However, when gamblers talk about "value" they usually mean expected value, which is a different thing. Expected value addresses the likely value of a bet (either positive or negative) at the moment it is struck. In this case the price movement shows that it is likely that you got a better price than the true price of the selection, so you can say that you've probably struck a positive expected value bet (answer 2). The fact that your bet now has an absolute value supports your case. As has been said above there is no way of knowing whether a particular bet is or was value, you will never know for sure, but "probably" is a sensible answer. This uncertainty causes some people to believe that value is subjective. This is wrong, it may be unknown, but it is not subjective.
It should be clear that whether a bet wins or not has no bearing at all on the expected value of a bet at the moment at which it is struck. Anyone who doesn't understand this simply doesn't understand the concept of expected value.
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