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General Betting
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How many percent of your bankroll do you risk per bet?
I risk 1,5 % on bets with odds around 2,00. If the odds is higher, for example 3,00-5,00 I risk a bit less. If the odds is lower I risk more. If the odds is around 1,30-1,40 I risk 3 % of my bankroll. I never risk more than 5 % of my bankroll on any bet, and that only happens on very low odds, where the risk of losing the bet is equivalent low.
What do you think? Is this to risky? I'm sure it's not too risky risking 1,5 % per bet when the odds is not too high. But does it make sense to risk more on bets with law odds, with an equivalent lower risk of losing the bet?
I risk 1,5 % on bets with odds around 2,00. If the odds is higher, for example 3,00-5,00 I risk a bit less. If the odds is lower I risk more. If the odds is around 1,30-1,40 I risk 3 % of my bankroll. I never risk more than 5 % of my bankroll on any bet, and that only happens on very low odds, where the risk of losing the bet is equivalent low.
What do you think? Is this to risky? I'm sure it's not too risky risking 1,5 % per bet when the odds is not too high. But does it make sense to risk more on bets with law odds, with an equivalent lower risk of losing the bet?
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Seems a very sensible strategy to me Livebetter.
I never go above 5% max liability but for a more reasoned mathematical discussion, you might find the Maria Laying system thread useful. Basically, she had three levels of percentage depending on the odds. |
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Max 3%
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I go through the same process of finding bets, without looking at the prices. Once I have found a potential bet that I have high confidence in - in that I would genuinely be surprised if it lost, and can watch the race without worry or fear - I then look at the prices.
I generally stake between 2% and 5% - the bigger the odds, the bigger the bet - exploit the value!! As Patrick Veith says in his book, most betting public find a bet, look at the prices and get worried that they've 'missed something' as to why the selection isn't shorter, and so reduce their stake accordingly. He states that if you genuinely fancy something with very high confidence, exploit these value opprortunities by betting aggressively. He believes this is where he made the bulk of his early profits before going into horse ownership, when he was a punter 'from the outside'. If your process of selection is the same - which by not looking at prices it will be as your study process is not swayed by the odds - bet more into value opportunities. Just my opinion, backed up by a successful punter's reasoning. I hope this helps. |
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Yellow I don't quite understand your logic in finding bets. I'm a value bettor. I only bet if I believe the expected probability of the outcome multiplicated with the odds exceeds 100. I have a margin of 15 %, so the number has to be 115 or more before I bet.
For example, if I suspect there is 40 % probability of a game exceeding 2,5 goals, I bet if the odds is apporximately 2,90. (2,90 x 40 = 116). Expected theoretical return of investmnt is 16 %. In practice it will normally be less. This means that I'm not able to know if I have a bet BEFORE I see the prices. How could I? It all dependes on the price! If often make nets that i expect to lose, because the price is good. My example above is a bet I would suspect to lose (60 % chance of losing). But as long as the price is good enough I will win in the long run if I've calculated the probabilites correct. |
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Sounds like you should be using KELLY
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http://www.seriousbet.co.uk/calculators/kelly_staking
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7.5% max
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Normally 10-30% but Max 100%, it depends on the bet. Probably sounds a bit mad but it works for me.
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If your username reflects your betting strategi I assume you prefer laying bets at odds 1.01. That means even though your a sharp bettor you probably have between 96-99 % chance of losing your games. And you risk 10-100 % of your bankroll on one bet.
You should go broke at least every other day. But if that works for you who cares? 2+2=5. Maybe it sounds mad, but it is for me :) |
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ALL IN EVERY BET
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pips got the right idea
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Livebetter
I really don't think you should be risking more or less based on prices ...your post at 12.51 makes some sense but the opening is not good IMO Take your 2 posts and let say you bet a 2/1 chances which you've calculated with a ROI of 120% - and measure this against a 1/3 chance with a ROI of 116% based on your calculations The staking is 1.5% risked on something that give your 120% against 3% of something that gives you 116% |