General Betting
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bit of a discussion on this subject in a few other threads so Ive started this to keep a record of how low risk/high reward bets can be profitable...
Only going to use 2 straetgies here and they are....
Laying correct score @ 1.10 and laying 2 goals ahead, odds on the lay of 2 goals ahead is time dependant but around the 1.10 mark aswell.
By laying 2 goals ahead what i mean is if there is no goals then laying under 1.5 goals, if there is 1 goal laying under 2.5 and if there is 2 goals laying under 3.5 goals and so on and so on....
Here I am looking for 2 late goals!
For every layer there is a backer, just say you are backing 1.10 shots for £100 a time, you make £10 profit with each winning bet.. just say your 1st 9 bets win then you make £90 profit (b4 comm) if the 10th bet loses then you have had 9 winning bets out of 10 but you are -£10.00..
Now lets say you lay @ 1.10 for £100 and your 1st 9 are losers you are -£90.00 but the 10th wins you make £100 so you had just 1 winning bet from 10 but you are +£10.00
Backing @ 1.10....9 winners and 1 loser = -£10.00
Laying @ 1.10.....1 winner and 9 losers = +£10.00
The layer who has had 1 winning bet out of 10 can come out £20.00 ahead of the backer who has had 9 winning bets out of 10 [;)]
If you can hit 2 winning lays then things start to look good
Backing @ 1.10.........8 winners and 2 losers -£120
Laying @ 1.10..........2 winners and 8 losers +£120
backer has had 8 winners from 10, layer has had 2 winners from 10 yet is £240 better off
I KNOW WHICH ONE I WOULD RATHER BE....
Only going to use 2 straetgies here and they are....
Laying correct score @ 1.10 and laying 2 goals ahead, odds on the lay of 2 goals ahead is time dependant but around the 1.10 mark aswell.
By laying 2 goals ahead what i mean is if there is no goals then laying under 1.5 goals, if there is 1 goal laying under 2.5 and if there is 2 goals laying under 3.5 goals and so on and so on....
Here I am looking for 2 late goals!
For every layer there is a backer, just say you are backing 1.10 shots for £100 a time, you make £10 profit with each winning bet.. just say your 1st 9 bets win then you make £90 profit (b4 comm) if the 10th bet loses then you have had 9 winning bets out of 10 but you are -£10.00..
Now lets say you lay @ 1.10 for £100 and your 1st 9 are losers you are -£90.00 but the 10th wins you make £100 so you had just 1 winning bet from 10 but you are +£10.00
Backing @ 1.10....9 winners and 1 loser = -£10.00
Laying @ 1.10.....1 winner and 9 losers = +£10.00
The layer who has had 1 winning bet out of 10 can come out £20.00 ahead of the backer who has had 9 winning bets out of 10 [;)]
If you can hit 2 winning lays then things start to look good
Backing @ 1.10.........8 winners and 2 losers -£120
Laying @ 1.10..........2 winners and 8 losers +£120
backer has had 8 winners from 10, layer has had 2 winners from 10 yet is £240 better off
I KNOW WHICH ONE I WOULD RATHER BE....
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correct score lays will be @ 1.10 for £200 (£20 liability) maybe on occassion i will lay 1.11-1.15 depending on time left in the game but normally asa rule its 1.10
laying of 2 goals ahead will be dependant on time left in the match but again will generally be @ 1.10 but 2 goals ahead will only be for £100 (£10 liability)
6 games i will be looking to get involved with tonight and they are....
the 5 Champs League games and the swedish match between brommapojkarna/djurgardens match
I will post later with the bets
laying of 2 goals ahead will be dependant on time left in the match but again will generally be @ 1.10 but 2 goals ahead will only be for £100 (£10 liability)
6 games i will be looking to get involved with tonight and they are....
the 5 Champs League games and the swedish match between brommapojkarna/djurgardens match
I will post later with the bets
on the goals bets are you planning to trade if theres a goal or let it run?
I always let them run..
Forgot to say earlier that if i get matched on my lay of 2 goals ahead and a goal is scored then i dont lay the correct score in injurytime, as ive laid 2 goals ahead and there has been a goal so another goal means i am a winner so there is no point laying the corect score as if there isnt another goal then im losing twice which is pointless, obviously if i do do it and there is a goal then i will win twice but i dont do it as winning once is enough..
hope this makes sense, for example...
0-0, i lay under 1.5 goals @ 1.10 on 85 mins, there is a goal in the 87th minute, i am not then going to lay the correct score in injurytime as im already going to win if there is another goal by laying under 1.5 goals...if there isnt a goal by the time the correct score gets to 1.10 then i will lay the correct score looking for an injurytime goal
if there is 2 then i will win twice, i remember last season west brom scored in injurytime against derby and west brom went to 1.01
straight from the K.O derby scored and 1.01 gubbed so 2 goals in injurytime does happen... it happened just last night
Forgot to say earlier that if i get matched on my lay of 2 goals ahead and a goal is scored then i dont lay the correct score in injurytime, as ive laid 2 goals ahead and there has been a goal so another goal means i am a winner so there is no point laying the corect score as if there isnt another goal then im losing twice which is pointless, obviously if i do do it and there is a goal then i will win twice but i dont do it as winning once is enough..
hope this makes sense, for example...
0-0, i lay under 1.5 goals @ 1.10 on 85 mins, there is a goal in the 87th minute, i am not then going to lay the correct score in injurytime as im already going to win if there is another goal by laying under 1.5 goals...if there isnt a goal by the time the correct score gets to 1.10 then i will lay the correct score looking for an injurytime goal
if there is 2 then i will win twice, i remember last season west brom scored in injurytime against derby and west brom went to 1.01
straight from the K.O derby scored and 1.01 gubbed so 2 goals in injurytime does happen... it happened just last night
Just an observation i-only-lay.
If you hit a bad run, no chasing whatsoever! Come on now, working your way out of a spot properly will have a lot more kudos attached.
g/l
If you hit a bad run, no chasing whatsoever! Come on now, working your way out of a spot properly will have a lot more kudos attached.
g/l
are you doing all todays 6 oclock games. the 2 goals ahead system are about to approach 1.1 time
also if there is not a goal by the time the correct score reaches 1.1, do you lay that as well, which could ptentially give you 2 losers?
Swedish Match... just put up a lay of under 1.5 goals @ 1.10 for £100
Just waiting to be match (will be shortly, 16 mins + stoppage to play)
Yes i wil lay the correct score if a goal hasnt been scored aznd yes this does give me 2 losers, i am normally very selective with these bets, like i only do it when there has been a goal scored (otherwise u get hammered on every 0-0 game) or if it is 0-0 then it has to be a big fav playing like man utd/chelsea barca etc etc
Just waiting to be match (will be shortly, 16 mins + stoppage to play)
Yes i wil lay the correct score if a goal hasnt been scored aznd yes this does give me 2 losers, i am normally very selective with these bets, like i only do it when there has been a goal scored (otherwise u get hammered on every 0-0 game) or if it is 0-0 then it has to be a big fav playing like man utd/chelsea barca etc etc
I have now been matched on my lay of under 1.5 goals in the swedish match, its 0-0 with 13 mins + stoppage to play..
normally i wouldnt touch this match but i dont mind risking £10 for the sake of the thread..
Your first post is logically flawed. How can it be fundamentally better to lay at 1.1 than to back?
Would it not be better to lay under 4.5 at 1.12 with 90 minutes left to play?
Djurgardens have went 1-0 up in the 86th minute so I wont be laying the correct score here...
Another goal +£95.00, no goal -£10
Another goal +£95.00, no goal -£10
Tranmere trader Joined: 08 Jun 03
Replies: 45 18 Aug 10 19:41
Would it not be better to lay under 4.5 at 1.12 with 90 minutes left to play?
Not really!! i could go 100 matches and never have one that has 5 or more goals, i wouldnt go 100 matches and not have one without an injurytime goal
Replies: 45 18 Aug 10 19:41
Would it not be better to lay under 4.5 at 1.12 with 90 minutes left to play?
Not really!! i could go 100 matches and never have one that has 5 or more goals, i wouldnt go 100 matches and not have one without an injurytime goal
was a goal on 85th in trollhatten game as well . so 2 with a chance albeit slim one
game ended 0-1 to djurgardens so -£10
Thread Profit/Loss: -£10.00
Be back around 9.20pm for tonights CL games..
Thread Profit/Loss: -£10.00
Be back around 9.20pm for tonights CL games..
i-only-lay
These are your figures:
Backing @ 1.10....9 winners and 1 loser = -£10.00
Laying @ 1.10.....1 winner and 9 losers = +£10.00
and seem to think that this gives an advantage to the layer.
But backing at true odds of 1.10 you can expect 10 winners out of 11, not 9 out of ten. So your figures should read:
Backing @1.10....10 winners and 1 loser = £0.00
Laying @ 1.10.....1 winner and 10 losers = £0.00
So at true odds there is no advantage to either backer or layer.
These are your figures:
Backing @ 1.10....9 winners and 1 loser = -£10.00
Laying @ 1.10.....1 winner and 9 losers = +£10.00
and seem to think that this gives an advantage to the layer.
But backing at true odds of 1.10 you can expect 10 winners out of 11, not 9 out of ten. So your figures should read:
Backing @1.10....10 winners and 1 loser = £0.00
Laying @ 1.10.....1 winner and 10 losers = £0.00
So at true odds there is no advantage to either backer or layer.
Daveyboymoyes Joined: 29 Jun 08
Replies: 6736 18 Aug 10 20:29
Has commision been mentioned here?
chesterboys Joined: 20 Aug 03
Replies: 43 18 Aug 10 20:39
seems that some of us don't have to pay it
Read the thread properly...
if you look at the last post in page 3 you will see it says +£95 for another goal and -£10 if no goal, now im getting £100 so -5% leaves me £95.00
also original post says (b4 comm)
surely everyone knows we all pay comm... didnt think that had to be stated
Replies: 6736 18 Aug 10 20:29
Has commision been mentioned here?
chesterboys Joined: 20 Aug 03
Replies: 43 18 Aug 10 20:39
seems that some of us don't have to pay it
Read the thread properly...
if you look at the last post in page 3 you will see it says +£95 for another goal and -£10 if no goal, now im getting £100 so -5% leaves me £95.00
also original post says (b4 comm)
surely everyone knows we all pay comm... didnt think that had to be stated
Im not bothering with 2 goals ahead here as im busy with other things and some games had too many goals..
just laying correct score/no next goal in the 5 matches once they reach 1.10 for £200 each..
just laying correct score/no next goal in the 5 matches once they reach 1.10 for £200 each..
was waiting for bremen game to hit 1.15 before laying 3-0 
how did you not get mached???
i got matched at 1.10 for lay of under 3.5 goals
got matched on all 5 games....
i got matched at 1.10 for lay of under 3.5 goals
got matched on all 5 games....
You totally missed the point there. Whether you lay or back these 1.1s if you are doing it blind you will end up losing as commission will get you. Betfair has been around long enough for the makets to be an accurate reflection of a given situation.
The small percentage of people winning have an edge usually gained through hard work and analysis. They don't bet blind.
The small percentage of people winning have an edge usually gained through hard work and analysis. They don't bet blind.
All 5 matched..
Bremen/sampdoria had the late goal +£190
-£80 on the other 4 matches
Thread Profit/Loss: +£100
Total Bets: 6
Winning Bets 1
Bremen/sampdoria had the late goal +£190
-£80 on the other 4 matches
Thread Profit/Loss: +£100
Total Bets: 6
Winning Bets 1
chesterboys....
if you read previous posts then you will see that i am normally selective with these bets
when the home team/fav team isnt winnin, im doing them blind(ish) just to show and get the thread going..
once things kick on abit ill become more selective here..
if you read previous posts then you will see that i am normally selective with these bets
when the home team/fav team isnt winnin, im doing them blind(ish) just to show and get the thread going..
once things kick on abit ill become more selective here..
Laid Under 2.5 goals in vienna/villa match @ 1.10 (£200)
Match ended 1-1 so £20.00 loss, comp is running abit sloe ATM so never had time to post it before the end of the match..
-£20.00
Total Bets: 7
Winning Bets: 1
Thread Profit/Loss: +£80.00
Match ended 1-1 so £20.00 loss, comp is running abit sloe ATM so never had time to post it before the end of the match..
-£20.00
Total Bets: 7
Winning Bets: 1
Thread Profit/Loss: +£80.00
nice work i-only-lay
i layed under 2.5 in grasshopper game after 60 mins at 1.05
i layed under 2.5 in grasshopper game after 60 mins at 1.05
1.02 just been gubbed in liverpool match
0-0 HT score
£4000 between 1.02 and 1.05
0-0 HT score
£4000 between 1.02 and 1.05
I have just laid under 4.5 goals in the galatasary match @ 1.05 for £200 (£10 liability)
1-2 6 mins to play
1-2 6 mins to play
goal came 60 seconds after i laid the bet... no more came so -£10.00
Total Bets: 8
Winning Bets: 1
Thread Profit/Loss: +£70.00
Total Bets: 8
Winning Bets: 1
Thread Profit/Loss: +£70.00
IOL - did you lay Under 1.5 near the end of the Fulham v Man U game today?
I like the thinking behind your system and will give it a try myself.
GL.
I like the thinking behind your system and will give it a try myself.
GL.
Is there some thinking behind it? I must have missed a post :p
i-only-lay Joined: 11 Nov 09
Replies: 1689 19 Aug 10 20:57
"For every layer there is a backer, just say you are backing 1.10 shots for £100 a time, you make £10 profit with each winning bet.. just say your 1st 9 bets win then you make £90 profit (b4 comm) if the 10th bet loses then you have had 9 winning bets out of 10 but you are -£10.00..
Now lets say you lay @ 1.10 for £100 and your 1st 9 are losers you are -£90.00 but the 10th wins you make £100 so you had just 1 winning bet from 10 but you are +£10.00"
You distort the figures by using only 10 bets and having the backer win 9 times and the layer win once.
If the true odds of an event occurring are 1.1 it will happen 90.91% of the time. The backer wins 9.091 times out of 10 and the layer 0.809 times. These figures are still subject to a slight rounding error.
The more bets you have in your sample and the more precise you are with your approximations the closer you get to neither backer nor layer losing or winning anything. Which is exactly what you would expect.
Taking one side over the other may suit your temperament but it's not right to suggest one is more rational than the other.
Replies: 1689 19 Aug 10 20:57
"For every layer there is a backer, just say you are backing 1.10 shots for £100 a time, you make £10 profit with each winning bet.. just say your 1st 9 bets win then you make £90 profit (b4 comm) if the 10th bet loses then you have had 9 winning bets out of 10 but you are -£10.00..
Now lets say you lay @ 1.10 for £100 and your 1st 9 are losers you are -£90.00 but the 10th wins you make £100 so you had just 1 winning bet from 10 but you are +£10.00"
You distort the figures by using only 10 bets and having the backer win 9 times and the layer win once.
If the true odds of an event occurring are 1.1 it will happen 90.91% of the time. The backer wins 9.091 times out of 10 and the layer 0.809 times. These figures are still subject to a slight rounding error.
The more bets you have in your sample and the more precise you are with your approximations the closer you get to neither backer nor layer losing or winning anything. Which is exactly what you would expect.
Taking one side over the other may suit your temperament but it's not right to suggest one is more rational than the other.
Is this thread over or can we expect an update. Thanks
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