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General Betting
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I only bet over/under on soccer matches. I win more than I loose. I bet far more under than over. My opinion is that it's far easier to find value on under bets than on over bets, especially when betting in-play.
I want to know if this is what other bettors also experience.
1. Do you bet mostly under or over?
2. Are you a winner or a looser or do you break even?
3. Are you betting mostly in-play?
I want to know if this is what other bettors also experience.
1. Do you bet mostly under or over?
2. Are you a winner or a looser or do you break even?
3. Are you betting mostly in-play?
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Replies: 19
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overs/unders is my biggest earner and its always overs..
Unders are the WORST BETS IN FOOTBALL i absolutely hate them, theres nothing worse than watching a football match hoping there wont be goals.  plus with unders bets you have to wait until the final whistle before you get a winner, with overs you can have a winner by halftime, last night my overs bet on young boys/spurs was won after 28 mins I like to have odds against for my overs bets so if he game is inplay but odds on i will wait 5-15 mins until he ods go odds against i have alot of data from the last 5 years and the amount of over 2.5 goals bets where there hasnt ben a goal inside the opening 20 mins is stagering you can waut 20 mins and if a game is still goaless odds can shift 30-50 ticks 1.80 at K.O will be 2.20-2.30 after 20 mins |
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Your point is that it's more FUN betting overs. And as far as you ignore or do not know whether or not it's profitable you're absolutely right. That's the reason most people bet overs. It's more fun, especially if you're betting in-play and maybe watching the game.
But how could it be more profitable doing what everybody else is doing? Should it not be easier making a profit doing what most people not are doing? To me it seems you're saying you're winning because you're doing what is most fun. My opinion is that nothing is more fun than winning. And nothing is less fun than loosing. It's a lot more fun betting the boring way, and win. Than betting the fun way, and loose. |
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I think unders used to be value when these market first started because people wanted to watch goals - but that shifted and most of the prices for unders are now accurate.
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There's also too much trading on unders - which pushes the unders prices down even further.
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I've still found huge value in unders bets as late as 2009 on some Spanish games. Obviously you could pick any one of these patterns and see it change or disappear over time as more and more people move in to take advantage.
It used to be much easier to make significant amount before kick-off than it is today, due to so many people using bots. |
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Investor, I'm not very familiar with bots, and how they work. But my experience is also that it's very difficult to find value in over/under betting before kick-off. An probably the bots are to blame. But once the game turn in-play I find it a lot easier.
My opinion is that this is partly because far less bettors know how to bet in-play, how to calculate the probability of a goal at any given moment in a game. It's easier to this before kick-off. A bot can't help you if you're not able to tell the bot "what to look for". Also, even though you are able to tell the bot what to look for, it's harder to programme the bot in advance to function in-play. To smoe extent you'll have to be there yourself, with the bot. Whats your opinion on this Investor? Will the bots eventually make all value dissapear also in in-play games. Or will there always be value? |
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Most punters bet on things happening, it's a known fact, whether it
be corners, bookings, overs etc. When I work things out, invariably if a bet emerges, it is usually a negative bet, be it backing corners 9 or less, laying 13+ etc. Look at the spreads, their prices are almost always angled against buyers, and the only time you hear them screaming is when some late goals go in, usually in a high profile match. My advice is either back negative or no bet. |
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Livebetter, good posts but the word is ''lose'' not ''loose''
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It's very very common for people on the net to put loose instead of lose, your instead of you're, noone instead of no one etc etc. But I agree, good posts livebetter.
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kenilworth - do you still think unders gives more value, I had an inkling that the bias had pretty much corrected itself in markets these days?
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The problem is that I'm Norwegian. So my English is not perfect
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since i started here i bet 95% on the unders market (no overs bets unless its made with the green of the unders), so im pretty much specialized on the unders betting, it can be profitable but you need to try a lot of approaches until you get things right, there is no one right approach but a mix of them depending of conditions in-play (been doing it full time for 2 years now) and also have some unorthodox approach so that i don't follow the herd
i never make straight bets i always trade my positions and depending on the teams/leagues i stay exposed more or less time having a good analysis of goals in terms of team and leagues will help you get a feel for things but imo you shouldn't look very hard at stats because they'll give you a false sense of security hope it helps |
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shrewdbury, like I said, whenever a 'value' price emerges, it's 9 times
out of 10 a negative bet. |
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I'm surprised though - I'm sure unders prices have contracted generally in more recent times.
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It used to be a lot easier to find value pre-off. You'll always be able to find value though.
Most people I know that make significant amounts use bots. |
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shrewdbury, I didn't say 9 from 10 unders are backs. What I mean is that
from those that fit my criteria to back 9 from 10 are 'unders'. |
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Yes, can get that - but do you think the prices overall have contracted for unders?
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Shrewdbury, just spotted this ! Re your post, I'm not
aware of any contraction. |
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Livebetter wrote:
The problem is that I'm Norwegian. So my English is not perfect LOL, whenever I've been in Norway I've had a lesson in how to speak English correctly. For example, go into a small country supermarket with three young children and ask the 17 year old female blonde blue eyed assistant where I could find the concentrated fruit juices that you dilute to taste with water and give to children - "Oh you mean Cordial do you"? she replied |