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General Betting
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I know that most of you (probably all of you) want believe me. Thats because I'm able to do something that should not be possible. I've read a lot of books and numerous articles on the internet on gambling, and they all say the same. It's not possible. It's not possible to make a LONG TERM profitt on gambling ONLY using statistics.
Well, I don’t agree. I’m live betting on soccer matches. I only use statistics. I know nothing about the matches and teams I’m betting on. I don’t even watch the matches. I bet only on over/unders. But I’m able to make a long term profit. After more than 2500 bets I’ve made a profit of 130 %.
How? I look for imbalances in the odds. I look at the odds on over/under 2,5 goals just before the game starts. When you know the odds on over/under 2,5 it’s possible to calculate what the odds should be on over/under 0,5, 1,5, 2,5, 3,5, 4,5 and so on at any given moment in the match, both on full time and half time bets. When I see an imbalance I bet. If there’s an imbalance in the odds on over/under 2,5 goals and over/under 4,5 goals I can’t be sure which odds is wrong. But I can be sure that something is wrong. It can be both odds. That’s pure mathematics. I wan’ tell you any more. There’s more to it. But live betting gives a lot of opportunities that are still not discovered. It works.
Does anybody out there believe me?
Well, I don’t agree. I’m live betting on soccer matches. I only use statistics. I know nothing about the matches and teams I’m betting on. I don’t even watch the matches. I bet only on over/unders. But I’m able to make a long term profit. After more than 2500 bets I’ve made a profit of 130 %.
How? I look for imbalances in the odds. I look at the odds on over/under 2,5 goals just before the game starts. When you know the odds on over/under 2,5 it’s possible to calculate what the odds should be on over/under 0,5, 1,5, 2,5, 3,5, 4,5 and so on at any given moment in the match, both on full time and half time bets. When I see an imbalance I bet. If there’s an imbalance in the odds on over/under 2,5 goals and over/under 4,5 goals I can’t be sure which odds is wrong. But I can be sure that something is wrong. It can be both odds. That’s pure mathematics. I wan’ tell you any more. There’s more to it. But live betting gives a lot of opportunities that are still not discovered. It works.
Does anybody out there believe me?
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Yes.
Got any tips for the 2000-2001 Premiership? |
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You seem to be talking about betting inplay and of course it's possible to make a profit long-term that way. It's also possible to make a profit just by pure gambling pre-event on something like correct scores. The 5% commission makes it extremely difficult though for pre event betting - but not impossible.
Make sure you only bet on the total goals market rather than the over/unders on 1.5,2.5,3.5,4.5 markets! |
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Why is TG market better Cosmic?
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If you are playing on more than one of the goals market you only pay one lot of net commission on total goals whereas you would pay full commission on one of the 1.5/2.5/3.5/4.5 if you won, even if you lose on another one.
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I believe you, seeing as I'm doing the same thing
 Did you previously have a different username? |
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I also believe you. I have tinkered with this stuff at the end of last season (on different soccer markets) but never delved too deep as I always assumed that it would only take a handful of people with bots to be doing this to make sure the markets were priced fairly efficiently relative to one another and so all opportunities would go quickly?
Also, does the way a game pans out have any bearing on the relative prices of say, the 2.5 goals market v the 4.5 goals market. Eg, if a game has unexpectedly few chances then the 2.5 goals price falls relatively less than the 4.5 market? Thus not giving an 'error' that your statistics suggest? |
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mc selecta, whenever i find 'obvious' opportunities, I think to myself 'why hasn't someone botted this?'.
Eventually the people like me that are doing this will bot it and it will dissappear. Right now there are definitely still opportunities, although they are becoming more and more rare. Back in 2008 / 2009 I used be able to put prices up late at night and find perhaps 10-15% of those bets matched the following (late) morning. If I do that now, I will find perhaps 2% of bets matched, as bots have jumped in front of most of the bets. In running is more of a challenge for bot users, although they are there of course. |
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shrewdbury Joined: 25 Sep 09
Replies: 3748 16 Aug 10 15:04 Why is TG market better Cosmic? I think he is saying this because your overall commission costs will be lower if you are both backing and laying the various over/unders equivalents in the total goals market than in a bunch of separate markets. I bet on both over/unders and total goals. As a PC payer the commission savings are not worth pursuing and I just try to get all the value I can. |
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What do you think is the bots modus operandi with IR horse racing, the investor?
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The Investor, interesting stuff. Whenever I see an 'obvious' opportunity like that my first instinct is that my maths must be wrong as the markets should be efficient. [:(]
Out of interest what sort of % mispricings are you looking for? I hope I'm not asking anything that would comprimise what you do. |
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I almost always find value on under bets, and very seldom on over bets. This is especially the case when I bet in-play. I think this is natural. A lot of non-professional bettors watching a game is hoping for a goal. 0-0 games are not fun watching. It's a lot more fun betting on what you're hoping for, a goal. I believe this is why I mostly find the opportunities on under bets.
But I still think it's strange that I almost never find value on over bets. This tells me that my system might not be that perfect and that I might be doing something wrong. What is your experience on this? |
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I don't know how that works duncan.. There is a guy called aye robot who does that. I bet mainly on football.
selecta, during the world cup i saw some odds that were easily 30-40% out on low liquidity markets. --- that's what i believe too livebetter. Another reason that it's more difficult to find value on overs bets trading manually, is that you have to keep cancelling or adjusting your bets at regular intervals, as the odds naturally move against you if nothing significant happens. |
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Livebetter, if you don't mind me saying, your approach is rather on the same lines as the train of thought in Kevin Pulleins book in terms of betting on unders. Have you read the book?
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I enjoy watching 'nothing happening' as someone says.
The difference is that I usually want 'nothing to happen' and watching the ball flying over the bar, corners being avoided, refs giving goal kicks when it should have been a corner etc, etc. More of what I want happens more often than vice versa. How many shots at goal, compared with goals scored ? A lot less. |
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Livebetter,
After more than 2500 bets I’ve made a profit of 130 %. 130%? what is your ROI on your 2500 bets? and do you just use Betfair & not the Asian books? |
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My ROI is 4,3 %. I only use Betfair.
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After commission ?
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That's ok.
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Imv it's better than ok, it's excellent.
On the horse markets, it seems anecdotally the case that the first horse IR that breaks the 2.0 price barriers win less than 49.9% of the time, and the third horse to do so wins more often than that. IR bettors are preciptate, though someone wd have to do the hard yards to make a strategy of taking advantage of this pay. (I don't bet this race; I bet on movements and actual chances pre-race.) |
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49.8%?
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but Livebetter ist this what You are doing finding value? Because I dont see much statistics in it if You take a football game and look the price at KO and then if at some point in game it is wrong You make Your bet.
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Duncan, maybe. If it's 'fastest finger wins' in IR, then surely the fastest finger is a triggered bot.
The prob. is that a laying bot wants to lay to people who are a little slow, not the people who are the fastest. I have no idea how to win in these markets; I typically make a partial book over a few hours pre-race. |
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what's triggering the bot tho? A bot cant see a horse find nowt off the bridle, can it? I can see how bots may react to the overround being out of kilter IR but beyond that???
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askari1, even excellent is ok.
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I almost always find value on under bets, and very seldom on over bets. This is especially the case when I bet in-play. I think this is natural. A lot of non-professional bettors watching a game is hoping for a goal. 0-0 games are not fun watching. It's a lot more fun betting on what you're hoping for, a goal. I believe this is why I mostly find the opportunities on under bets.
Spot on. Blind you can back unders and expect (as a best price punter) to return around 99.9% of your stakes over time from the figures I have seen. The margin (blind, long run) is in the overs and that's where the loss of 4-5% of stakes long run comes. In-running the market is likely to be less efficient, and even more keen on overs than pre-game, more often than not. They used to say on the spreads: Buyers have fun, sellers make money - same sort of principle (although of course, its not as simple as that!). |