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General Betting
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This doubtless a dumb question, but I'll ask it nonetheless. For those people who gather and formulate their own goal time stats I have this:
If there has been one game with a goal after ten minutes, then the average goal time is 10 minutes. If the next game is 0-0, what should be done with the stats?
1) Include the 0-0 game, therefore average goal time is now 5 minutes.
2) Exclude the 0-0 game, therefore average goal time stays at 10 minutes.
3) Add 90 minutes, therefore average goal time is 50 minutes.
Presently I'm using scenario 2), but is this correct?
If there has been one game with a goal after ten minutes, then the average goal time is 10 minutes. If the next game is 0-0, what should be done with the stats?
1) Include the 0-0 game, therefore average goal time is now 5 minutes.
2) Exclude the 0-0 game, therefore average goal time stays at 10 minutes.
3) Add 90 minutes, therefore average goal time is 50 minutes.
Presently I'm using scenario 2), but is this correct?
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assuming you mean average time of the FIRST goal of a game.
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Yes, that's right. Do you know if option 3 is used generally?
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It is on Leaguepad.
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If you bought the time on the spreads, if 0-0, the
makeup would be 90. (BTW the average time of the first goal is around 28, and the average of [u]all[/u] goals is around 50) |
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depends what your using it for
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Thanks for the replies everyone. I think I've got this sussed now.
I'm now happily calculating these: 1) Average time of first, second, third goal. 2) Average time of first goal for/against for each side. Incidentally, the average time of the first goal varies greatly from league to league. Even then, I cannot see any of them that are around 28 minutes. If you are calculating this yourself, you may want to look again at your stats. Cheers. |
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how far are you going back? how many matches?
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No reason why any of the English Leagues should be different over a period of time. What average do you get for the four leagues combined, and over a season or more ? Historically the average for 1st goal is 28.
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I have stats for going back the last four seasons for most European leagues. I'm also generating them as they come for the current season.
You say there is no reason why any of the English leagues should be different, but they are. Exactly why could be due to any one of a number of reasons: fitness, incisiveness of attack, defensive abilities, quality of pitch, blah de blah. Who knows. I spent a lot of time generating these stats myself, so I hope you won't mind if I don't share my precise findings with you. We don't know, some people may place bets based on your 28 minutes general figure... which may just open up possibilities for me if I believe otherwise. [;)] Cheers. |
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The average time of the first goal may be higher than 28, but what is important is how many times above and how many times below, two different things. some people may place bets based on your 28 minutes general figure..., well actually bookmakers do, and in different ways. SP books bet either side of (usually) 28 mins, evens each, and about 8/1 exactly 28 mins, whereas spreads betting is usually based around 38 mins, buy or sell 1 min either side (37-39) the difference between books and spreads is because the make up can be from 1 to 90 meaning the seller can lose a lot more than he can win and adjusted accordingly. Actually I should have been more precise, the average and the median being two different entities (38 and 28 respectively)
I have no problem with you not disclosing your findings as those figures are common knowledge and available to some people at a touch of a button. |