Backing over 2.5 when to cut losses

I expect the people who are succesful at it will be watching the price as much as the clock and will probably let it ride all the way if they don't think the price worth laying at .

Is this a 'i cut a winning position in the play off game but let a losing position run to it's conclusion in the final thread'? Traders have different strategies/entry-exit positions and even in running look to back at a value price, usually when a sharp drop is expected, and they look to exit, when backing overs, if after a goal is scored the price is then too low so becomes a lay. Many people are quick to tell others when they are all green and spout the 'Nobody went skint taking a profit' lines but they will go skint very quickly if they're more than willing to green but fail to red when the markets move against them.

I wondered about that, basically i looked through my stats for last year and my strike rate betting wise on over/unders is excellent by far my best.

I was just thinking about expoliting this fully by also trading on my bets on this market. So still do my £25 level stake betting but trade as well for a £100 a go. Letting it run seems to be a bit risky. 

Do you know of any general staregies for this type of betting I could look at and then adapt?

sorry buzzer didn't see your reply before.

No i was on unders in the final, I am just thinking about a new way of betting for this season and was trying to explore the avenue of trading on the o/u 2.5. I was after soem help working out exit strategies and how long to leave bets before taking a loss.

Why trade out at all ? How do you feel when cutting out
after 30 mins with no goals scored and the bet turns out
to be successful ? The trouble is, there is no 'right time'
to close, unless you are clairvoyant. Normally you shouldn't
bet unless the price seems to in your favour, and chances are even
after, say 30 mins with no goals, the current price is still
attractive to backers, in which case you shouldn't be closing
anyway for that reason alone.

I spent the past six months looking at my betting, strategies, staking, etc and looking at where the pluses and minuses are. 

Clearly I make more profit when I put the effort in to research straight positions versus the time I put into trading. 

I've also come up with a staking plan that suits my approach rather than percentage bank, etc.  This has created a more 'relaxed' approach to the 'game' for me.

Thus leads to my attitude of "hedging" rather than recouping a losing bet.  The key I find is not to try to (a) recoup 100% or (b) put yourself in a position that kills more than 80% of what you would have made (re: when taking a position on an event, it is based on the final result). 

With that headspace, simply trading to reduce the loss by even a small percentage gives an edge back to your overall gains.

But, repeating myself, it's a matter of doing the math just to trim a percentage and not trying to get 100% back. 

If you find yourself trying to recoup 100%, it means you over-exposed your account in the first place.

"Trading out" is just a fancy name for making another bet, and the answer to your question is that you only bet (or trade out) when the price is value.

Some good advice, especially with regards value. I think you need to go in to a game with a set of assumptions (your reason for betting on an event in the first place). As long as your assumptions hold you stick with your bet. If it becomes clear that your assumptions are wrong, then you need a plan B or simply get out as quickly as you can. That's probably stating the obvious.

Size of stake is an important factor - I will often trade with much bigger than my maximum betting stake, therefore I will need to trade out at some point, or I am risking too much.

Sometimes I trade intending to trade out, but if the game goes my way I let it ride (with much more than my max risk on the bet)

Snrewdbury that is my dilema, I want to trade and utilise my knowledge on the over/under market to gain far bigger profits but can't afford to increase my stakes to the level I would like to trade at.

It's still a bit of a gray area for me too - how big a trading stake I should work with, and I have come a cropper in the past letting trades run too long.

Clowns

shrewdbury Joined: 25 Sep 09
Replies: 3308 16 Jul 10 14:11   


It's still a bit of a gray area for me too - how big a trading stake I should work with, and I have come a cropper in the past letting trades run too long.


Would you be saying that if it had gone your way ? ...and that brings us back to the opening post...

Depends how risky the situation is/was - if I win, but do so by risking too much then that's obviously wrong. But, it's different depending on the risk attached - I had a football game where i layed a side intending to trade out of the risk after 15 minutes - if they scored I would have traded out red, and not lost the whole stake. However, the other side scored early so I left the whole stake riding. Its just like any other bet I suppose in that it's a risk/stake analysis for each point of a trade.

This is my issue.

I think there will be goals in a game so back overs, now i feel by trading as well betting this judgement i will make more money, due to my currect success rate.

The problem is If i trade out after 30 minutes am I cutting too quickly? if i leave it to 60 minutes have i left it too late.

Does anyone have any suggestions on techniques, books, blogs that talk about exit strategies in more detail.

I wouldn't bother squirrel - I think experience and just getting on with it yourself is the best way to learn your own trading approaches.

After all, there's no one simple answer or else we'd all be doing it.

On what squirrel was saying:

Best to throw back portions of your bet. As the price moves in your favour, even if it is small amount, take the prices. 

With O/U, you can always go back in at a lower price after a goal but you'll find yourself in a better position if the market moves against you.

There are loads of sensible comments on this fred.  In fact if you read them you have the best posters providing the best advice possible.  It ought to be saved.

I resisted commenting because I figured some or our best had already