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TOTGA
28 Jun 10 18:43
Joined:
Date Joined: 13 Jun 10
| Topic/replies: 25,132 | Blogger: TOTGA's blog
I was reading an article about trading the other week. A comment in there made me realise why the 3% of account holders in profit don't share what they're doing.

Basically, new trading strategies for the financial markets have to be invented all the time, because the moment it becomes knowledge how a particular method is successful - and is copied by others - the liquidity dries up and hence the method becomes less successful (or worse, starts to fail).

This has meant more exotic trading strategies are kept secret, and on the whole the only strategies that can be discussed openly are the ones where "everybody wins" - e.g. if everybody accepts a fundamental in an annual report means the price will go up and everybody invests, the price goes up, hence profit.

I'm thinking in terms of betting - most of us are probably aware of most strategies including dutching and backing under-round, laying over-round to payout or liability (where you can get matched!), straight trading on price movements outside of in-play, "stats bets" on 1.05 or 1000 in-play, trying to get an edge by going to the course, etc.

However, these put most of us in the 97% of accounts not making money. I'm wondering if this is because the moment you share a strategy, it becomes worthless. The only one I can think of that seems to have stood up is trading on fluctuations, but then people keep their reasoning for targeting markets and runners to themselves, so same thing.

One other contrary point I realised is that bookmaker's adopt a "betting strategy" of laying over-round, which seems to have stood up to a few hundred years of hammering... why does that strategy survive being in the open, and others do not?

In essence, it seems these last two strategies still work because there is still a fundamental disagreement over value within the markets. "I believe this is good/bad value" is the bedrock of both actually working.

Was just curious what people's thoughts are: can a successful Betfair strategy ever be shared? And if so, and you have such a strategy, perhaps you would care to prove your point... :-)
Pause Switch to Standard View Winners don't share. Discuss.
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Report REM July 18, 2010 7:19 PM BST
I have great respect for the market. We all should. The market is the total opinion of everyone prepared take a fincial risk speculating on the outcome of an event. That's the combined opinion of experts, insiders, shrewd punters and mug punters, together with bored thrill seekers and those who pinch money in the margins. At the off the market is at its most informed. The difficulty is that betfair is not the complete market and it carries recycled money, but it is probably the most readily available element that allows a signfificant degree of study.
Report clacherholiday2 July 19, 2010 1:10 AM BST
dogrelata

Now here’s the crux of the matter.  For the first four months it worked really well, identifying backs, not lays as previously.  However, over the course of the last month, results have been  bad.  This begs the question, is the last month a statistical aberration, or were the previous four months’ profits the result of luck?  The answer to that question remains unknown – there’s a clear correlation evident in the data, to what extent it can be exploited is another issue.   



Always have to stay ahead of the game, I'm thinking about mixing things up a little for the new year myself.  In the last week of the World Cup and in the week since, people havent been lumping on favorites to the same extent they normally, what I've noticed alot more money coming into over/under markets, even though I love people gambling on a glorified coin flip its meant I've more liabilities tied up in two runner markets... which I dont like (Brazil tonight, if every day was like this I'd be posting this message by the side of my pool in the Caribbean, every game was odds on for overs).

As I havent been looking at where money goes following big tournaments in the past I can only assume people will start lumping on the favs again in the new season?  Maybe I'll just go with my original plan of only following leagues that arent covered live on UK TV, theres enough liquidity in Dutch, Turkish, Russian etc markets for me.  When punters have less info and still punt, it can only maximise my returns.

Who knows?  Who cares?  Its all a mess on here Cool

The point is I agree with everybody who says you have to keep changing your approach, sports and racing do change fundamentally over time.
Report Beefie July 19, 2010 12:34 PM BST
dogrelata

Now here’s the crux of the matter.  For the first four months it worked really well, identifying backs, not lays as previously.  However, over the course of the last month, results have been  bad.  This begs the question, is the last month a statistical aberration, or were the previous four months’ profits the result of luck?  The answer to that question remains unknown – there’s a clear correlation evident in the data, to what extent it can be exploited is another issue.   

Always a difficult one.  You can do some statistical analysis to show the probability of you results being down to chance.  Try a chitest.  If you're not familiar with it - Excel Help will show you how to do it without too much sweat.

GL
Report AussiInUK July 19, 2010 1:34 PM BST
As the market has gotten more and more to 100% (less the commission) it has been more importent to take a view of a horse. Money is driving the market, not opinion. You will find value not by looking at the market, but the price.
Report kenilworth July 19, 2010 4:33 PM BST
You will find value not by looking at the market, but the price.

Are they not the same thing ? If not, please explain.
Report AussiInUK July 19, 2010 5:38 PM BST
To take an extreme example, if a market is at 100% and you find a hoss at 2.2 that you value at 1.8 then that is a value bet.

At the moment the traders are dictating the market to such an extent that most horses are being over and under bet creating a market rather than a betting medium.

If you can price a horse up then you can win in the long term.
Report chelseagirl July 19, 2010 11:46 PM BST
dogrelata 18 Jul 10 17:52

That was my research.  It’s hard to believe it’s over seven years since those two articles were published in SmartSig and quite a lot has changed since then.


Nice one, I still dig around the old copies of smartsig to identify anything relavent to the exchanges!  Your article, interested me at the time as it was primarily based on the exchanges that were just taking off and it came at the problem from a different angle.  I always said I would get round to investigating your idea a bit further but never got round to it :)  On the subject of SmartSig, anyone checked out the online version ?  Any good ?  The quality of the articles for the magazine version steadily declined until it was stopped a couple of years ago.  Have'nt checked out the online version yet but, it does'nt look like things have improved from looking at the website.
Report I.quit.my.country July 20, 2010 10:18 AM BST
A good read this thread. I said a long time ago on various threads that the best way to make a profit on here long-term, is for people to stop trying to predict the future and concentrate on predicting the punters and how they bet. I have not looked back since realizing this.

I had a great WC betting and won alot by over staking because I could not believe the prices on offer. But I accept this was a one-off. I will take my winnings and return to trading. I had a good month being Mystic Meg but I have had years of disappointment being Mystic Meg beforehand.
Report kenilworth July 20, 2010 3:30 PM BST
the best way to make a profit on here long-term, is for people to stop trying to predict the future and concentrate on predicting the punters and how they bet.

I've been saying that for ages.
Report Beefie July 20, 2010 4:14 PM BST
I.quit & Kenilworth

I agree.  We can describe it in different ways.  For me it's the Confirmation Bias we discussed earlier in the thread.
Report Coachbuster July 20, 2010 8:01 PM BST
agree kenilworth
Report REM July 20, 2010 10:38 PM BST
No.

Predict the future and value falls out of the markets like rain from the sky.

Predict how punters bet and you are a trader, feeding the market until the market feeds on you.

If people only bet according to how other people bet you soon have a very circular argument.
Report u25k July 20, 2010 11:31 PM BST
good point. I told this ages ago but no one listened. It is important to understand punters behaviour (odds changes) , game (odds) and body language of players. Back favourites when they are struggling and you can get good odds. Lay underdogs when cruising. ofcourse timing your bets and trading at right times are crucial. If you can do that then you are winner.
Report kenilworth July 21, 2010 6:35 AM BST
ofcourse timing your bets and trading at right times are crucial. If you can do that then you are winner.

Is that not forecasting the future ? No one but clairvoyants can do that.
Report Zola's Back Heel July 21, 2010 9:22 AM BST
If people only bet according to how other people bet you soon have a very circular argument.

That is fundamental to how it works.
Report ebasson61 July 21, 2010 8:58 PM BST
kenilworth Joined: 04 Nov 05
Replies: 2694 21 Jul 10 06:35   

Is that not forecasting the future ? No one but clairvoyants can do that.


Well, if Man Utd are playing at home against Wigan, who happened to score an early goal. Since then Man U have been battering Wigan but have failed to break through and equalise. It reaches HT. I'd say it's not being clairvoyant to suppose the chances of Man U scoring in the second half are high. Backing Man U at say 1.9 or laying Wigan at HT would, in my opinion, be a good bet at that point. And all without psychic powers.
Report kenilworth July 21, 2010 9:08 PM BST
Backing Man U at say 1.9 or laying Wigan at HT would, in my opinion, be a good bet at that point. And all without psychic powers

It's all about prices. Manu to win the second half by 2 goals or more at 1.9 ? what if it was 1.6, or 1.4 ?
If it hasn't happened, it may not happen, don't forget that.
Report Zola's Back Heel July 21, 2010 11:05 PM BST
Burnley.
Report Avocado July 21, 2010 11:58 PM BST
This thread is absolutely discussting.
Report no moves July 22, 2010 12:02 AM BST
If winners don't share then this thread is useless because it can only ever be a discusion between the losers on the site.
Report Avocado July 22, 2010 12:19 AM BST
The main winners are the bookmakers I think, William Hill and the others. Seems to be a license to print money for them.
Report kenilworth July 22, 2010 9:07 AM BST
Their licence to print money is in the FOB's they have in the shops, also
virtual racing. Match Odds football betting is very difficult for them
because of the competative nature of it.
Report Avocado July 22, 2010 11:11 AM BST
I heard Coral almost went bust during Euro 2004 when all the favourites won in the quarter finals.
Report Trevh July 22, 2010 11:58 AM BST
As if they would put themselves in that position! The whole point of offering a 110% book is that you don't need to gamble, surely.
Report kenilworth July 22, 2010 12:10 PM BST
trevh, they CAN lose on individual matches as the money taken
in any match is out of proportion to the %chance of 3 options
happening, for instance the draw may attract perhaps just 10%
of the take, despite having a near 30%chance of occurring and
is therefore usually a good result. Having said that, the margins
they work to inevitably ensure a profit in the end.
Report Avocado July 23, 2010 12:27 AM BST
All the money goes on the favourite in football betting. If they get a long run of favourites winning they are ****ed.
Report Avocado July 23, 2010 12:27 AM BST
****/e/d
Report Avocado July 23, 2010 12:27 AM BST
fooked
Report clacherholiday2 July 23, 2010 3:59 AM BST
Correct avocado

88% of the cash in the LA Galaxy 90mins market is losing, they were best priced 1.58 pre KO.

If LA get 2 goals and come back, the books will lose money.
Report Avocado July 23, 2010 4:45 AM BST
Yeah. They would lose a lot more money if it was a Premiership game or something more high profile.
Report shiraz August 18, 2010 7:34 PM BST
ttt
Report kohaku August 18, 2010 8:34 PM BST
368/407.. IR Lays last 26 Days..90.42% SR

Fast pics got nothing to do with it.
Report duncan idaho August 18, 2010 8:57 PM BST
Is that purely from a racereading angle or have you taken a view about the form of horse pre-race aswell, kohaku (or mix of both!)?


ps hope you're laying at under 10/1!
Report kohaku August 18, 2010 10:05 PM BST
Dunc.

When I first came on here 9 yrs ago. I made 2k the first month.doing what I am now doing again, only its been seriously tweaked,but the principle is the same.

The goal posts moved.and I started to lose,due to the advent of fast pics etc.

Its based on logic,mathematics,human error..

Saturdays highlight this beauifully..ex Last 3. were 74/78..94.87 % SR.
Report kohaku August 18, 2010 10:09 PM BST
I dont watch the race,study the race,or listen to any pundits etc.

I just go into Robot mode for 3 - 6 hrs.

Have no emotions,nothing..

I will keep this updated.

Flat Racing only...them IR backers dont get much time to use their  trigger finger. esp Sats.
Report duncan idaho August 18, 2010 10:42 PM BST
Intriguing, kohaku. I bet it's harder than it was 9 yrs ago! Certainly a healthy strike rate. Do you use any software for IR (one-click?) or just normal Betfair interface? Thanks for posting and good luck.
Report kohaku August 19, 2010 8:26 AM BST
No Software,only 1 Sec Refresh.
Report YoungDuncan August 19, 2010 9:45 AM BST
Try and name the winner half way through a race.It's just as difficult as before the start,yet the odds on some runners have halved.(admittedly some will have dropped away)
The first horse that shortens significantly in running usually is not the eventual winner.
Report duncan idaho August 19, 2010 10:25 AM BST
''The first horse that shortens significantly in running usually is not the eventual winner.''


The betting isnt suggesting it would be unless it has gone odds-on
Report kohaku August 19, 2010 10:36 AM BST
Thinking Outside the Box..is the way forward nowdays..

You have to do the OPPOSITE to what the majority do,to WIN.

Its the same with shares,although its going against human nature.

Let the stats take care of it.

Looking at IR prices after each race,is the Key.
Report kohaku August 20, 2010 6:16 PM BST
Latest Update.

Last. 7 Days..Horse Racing: £1,078.19 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £1,078.19
Last 28 Days.+ £3063
Last.30 Days..Horse Racing: £2,603.55 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £2,603.55

Total Lays IR. 28 Days

390/430........90.70 %..SR.

Has it been Done..Will continue update until 1000 race sample.
Report REM August 20, 2010 7:22 PM BST
K, impressive figures. You must have nerves of steel and/or a very good approach to play IR blind. I sometimes dip in that way, but by the time I've enough confidence to place a bet the moment is usually gone. There are some sports where I find pictures do hinder me and I much prefer to watch the market and work out my bet based on the overall situation.

Must say I miss your hunter chase write-ups.
Report kohaku August 20, 2010 7:57 PM BST
REM

No nerves at all.Robot.

Imperative that i do NOT watch the RUK races,forming opinions IR is fraught with massive danger.

Had a couple of 1.01's  1.05 & 1.08 beat.

The stats say,carry on. In another plus £200,moving up to Level 5

= Even more Profit.
Report duncan idaho August 21, 2010 11:42 AM BST
Level 5?
Report ticktocktimmy August 26, 2010 7:33 PM BST
how's it going kohaku?
Report kohaku August 27, 2010 4:37 PM BST
Weekly update later 2 day. Sat-Thur totally dif to previous 4 weeks,for some unknown reason.
Report freddiewilliams August 27, 2010 4:51 PM BST
Shocked
Report kohaku August 27, 2010 6:45 PM BST
Update after 7.35 HAM..

System having best ever day 17/17..+ £479

Hope it doesnt go t1ts up over last 2 races..Stopping on a LOSS
Report kohaku August 27, 2010 7:51 PM BST
Started the week (Last Sat) with my ar$e kicked on race 1..

Broke one of my written rules.Forget CHESTER.Lost over 300 there.ended the day with system worse.LOSS £536.by end Thurs Losing £552.

Back with system best today.. 20/20,got 2 in the 7.35 H

Today..Horse Racing: £570.21 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £570.21
Last 7 Days.. + £18.
System Total (35 Days) PROFIT..£3081.

446/496...89.92% SR

Current Winning Run 20. Previous bests 21.25x3. 27x2

Hoping tomorrow is back to norm..

Less is More.
Report yazza101 August 27, 2010 10:01 PM BST
how about most of bf profit memebers are the bookmakers
Report freddiewilliams August 28, 2010 1:54 PM BST
kohaku...so u lost 536 last saturday.....did u lose anonther 552 between sunday and thursday?
Report kohaku August 28, 2010 4:28 PM BST
No Freddie...

I held on well to be a total of 552 down by end of Thurs play.
Report kohaku August 28, 2010 4:29 PM BST
Obviously a consolidation phase,which is healthy in the march forward.

Hopefully.
Report freddiewilliams August 28, 2010 5:55 PM BST
so u lost only 16 between sunday and thursday?
Report kohaku August 28, 2010 6:18 PM BST
Yes Freddie.

Sat UpDate...Horse Racing: £514.64 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  £514.64

System.25/27..92.59% SR---Profit £363.

36 Days.471/523..Back over 90 at 90.06% SR

Profit £3444.

Dont forget...Less is More
Report freddiewilliams August 28, 2010 7:22 PM BST
thanks for clarifying kohaku
why do u think saturday to the thursday was so bad?
Report kohaku August 29, 2010 5:52 PM BST
End of an Amazing 3 Days 60/62 ..96.77% SR.

On current winning run of 30

Not bad for an old git with slow pics.

Experience Counts.imo..

Watch the Replay of 4.55 Y..Knot Garden 6/5 IR. lol

Fast Pic idiots,cutting each others throats
Report MIB34 August 29, 2010 9:32 PM BST
Did any one else  read  a certain large bookies (lad*b)   artical  about  the world cup  ???


All bets  recieved on there website, that were placed  inrunning during the match..
were ALL   matched  against  betfair ,  and other online  providers !!




I kid  u not  they  to no risk,  yet did a Huge turnover..
Report TameTheTiger August 30, 2010 11:37 AM BST
What odds did you match Knot Garden at ?
Report IB Gaming September 5, 2010 7:03 AM BST
I share.
Report freddiewilliams September 6, 2010 10:57 AM BST
kohaku an update please
Report kohaku September 6, 2010 2:30 PM BST
Update.. System Aborted after 6 weeks..

Had a blinding 3 days £1400 ( High + £3904)
followed by a p1ss poor week.lost 4 from 5 days.

Gratefully took the £2910 profit.. May resume for the final RUK meets for small stakes.

Gone back to Selective Back/Lay IR..

The obvious just scored at Newcastle Calypso Magic..6/4 Win or Lose.
Report kohaku September 6, 2010 3:09 PM BST
3.0 NA.. £6 Chestnut Ben at 18 IR.Lay £33 at 3.1
Report kohaku September 6, 2010 3:13 PM BST
3.10 Bath.

Layed Yurutuni at 3.8

Packing up taking, the £93 profit for 90 mins minor effort.
Report freddiewilliams September 11, 2010 8:38 PM BST
an update kohaku please
Report kohaku October 9, 2010 6:05 PM BST
Update 9 Oct from 24/7

Highest  + £3904

Went a bit t1ts up when the ground went,went down to +£2350.

Adapted and reduced stakes by 50%

Today 12/12 + £179..Total + £3064
Report ZEALOT October 11, 2010 8:21 PM BST
so the point earlier in the thread regarding robben , if i was laying to a level stakes £50 should my new lay be 50*2.73  ????
thanks
Report ZEALOT October 12, 2010 6:33 PM BST
anyone ? Happy
Report ZEALOT October 14, 2010 8:00 PM BST
anyone ?
Report ZEALOT October 16, 2010 6:10 PM BST
[:)]
Report ZEALOT October 16, 2010 7:15 PM BST
i thibk i get the message
cheers Cool
Report The Betfairy October 16, 2010 7:34 PM BST
Few people have a discus.
Report ZEALOT October 16, 2010 7:38 PM BST
CAN YOU HELP , BETFAIRY ?
Report The Betfairy October 16, 2010 7:45 PM BST
[:x]
Report ZEALOT October 16, 2010 9:28 PM BST
ha ha Grin
Report kohaku October 16, 2010 9:38 PM BST
New Henderson B/Lay IR System launched today

Objective to win stake.win or lose.

Level 1. £50

Bet 1. Lets Get Serious WON... + £57 (probably robbed this time),but all part of the stats.
Report ZEALOT October 16, 2010 9:42 PM BST
don't quite understand mate - could you explain please ?
Report kohaku October 16, 2010 9:47 PM BST
I had £50 at 4.7 (could have had 6.6 pre race)

Layed £50 at 2.7 to get my money back.(free £100 ie the 2pts) & £50 at 1.8 for potential profit..
Report ZEALOT October 16, 2010 10:01 PM BST
ok , with you
cheers
Report Glasgow Brian October 18, 2010 12:22 PM BST
How accurate is the money punted on here as to  where the money is going ?
Report duncan idaho October 18, 2010 1:39 PM BST
64% accurate
Report ZEALOT October 18, 2010 8:06 PM BST
is everybody aslep ?
Report kohaku October 18, 2010 8:08 PM BST
All quiet on the Western Front.

Patience is a Virtue
Report clacherholiday2 October 18, 2010 11:53 PM BST
maybe theyve all started winning Grin


when i browse these forums, i actually feel like a god looking down on ants pushing rocks around, getting nowhere.

forget everything you think you know about betfair and youll be in a far better position
Report leaner October 19, 2010 4:49 AM BST
Glasgow Brian Joined: 03 Feb 09
Replies: 1122 18 Oct 10 12:22   


How accurate is the money punted on here as to  where the money is going ?



60% of the time it works every tme
Report tier October 19, 2010 1:24 PM BST
clacherholiday2 can I ask You couple of questions concerning this thread earlier on in private? it has now gone whole different way than it use to be...my email is haifisch(at)hot(dot)ee.
Report Pinza October 19, 2010 2:46 PM BST
Amazing this post.
Really good content on first 4 pages then...........!!!
Report G Hall April 10, 2012 10:16 PM BST
Discuss!!
Report pipedreamer April 30, 2012 8:08 PM BST
Hi,i'm willing to give people help as regards understanding form,and how to interpret it correctly.Ive been punting for 40 years and should have won a pile.Unfotunately as in the case of Abu Kadra [Nov Handicap 1988?]i was asked that as it was the outsider of 24,how could i be right and everybody else wrong?,exactly what i was thinking myself.The horse travelled in second place all the way down the straight travelling like a 5 to 1 on shot just waiting to go,and duly hosed up.So i reckon i know a bit,shame about the lack of confidence,[betting shop punters negativity?],anyway.
I will not discuss "systems".So to start,tell me all the things that you think you need to cover as regards what you think comes under the banner of "form",and marks out of ten as to how important you rate them.
Report pipedreamer May 2, 2012 1:39 PM BST
You people are a waste of space!!.if you dont want to discuss anything,dont waste my time by giving the impression that you do!!!!.
Report chatlame May 3, 2012 2:15 AM BST
It's not much to discuss. People have tried hard to find something to talk about, over the years that Betfair have existed. For example a trivial subject as "value" have been discussed to malediction, from every possible angle. Many members have also been old and tired over the years, and younger generations are quicker to learn. Anyway, I sincerely hope you can find someone who can at least fake some enthusiasm.

Good luck and good night!
Report clacherholiday2 May 9, 2012 11:37 PM BST
tier 19 Oct 10 13:24 
clacherholiday2 can I ask You couple of questions concerning this thread earlier on in private? it has now gone whole different way than it use to be...my email is haifisch(at)hot(dot)ee.


Grin

If you ever see this then just send me a message on here.
Report duncan idaho May 10, 2012 10:25 AM BST
pipedreamer, if you look at the dates, you will realise that this is a very old thread Laugh

Out of interest, which factors do you consider the most important re. form study? is there anything that others prob dont routinely use that you consider important? cheers
Report ZEALOT May 10, 2012 1:16 PM BST
Horses actual weight can be a valuable tool .
Report pipedreamer May 12, 2012 11:25 PM BST
Duncan Id,i actually have no idea as to what other punters think as regards form,i was mailing a guy a few months ago re looking at form and the value of certain horses being held up in the rear and coming thru to win when it was a slow pace early, and the horse being the only one to come from the rear.Of course the placed horses in said race must have raced prominently,esp if the 2nd actually led and didnt get taken on.
He mailed me a few weeks later and told me that Nick Mordin had that week put it in his column in the weekender as a system to use.Iwas astounded,AS I THOUGHT THAT ALL PUNTERS USED IT WHEN WORKING OUT FORM!!!.
I have tried b4 to discuss such stuff on here and actually received no replies!!!!.As i say i have no idea how punters think.Well actually theres a lot of nonsense spoke as regards punters comparing Group form and handicap form,esp big field handicaps.
Theres a world of difference between a fast run cavalry charge up the straight,i.e. Lincoln,and a small field group/listed race where theres no pace,something that sinks St Nick Abbey etc.
only the other day at Chester,punters were supposedly surprised when Brown Bomber finished last.He had won a very fast run race when being held up at Royal Ascot.So small was the field at Chester and surprise surprise no pace on that Fallon at one point had to actually attempt to take the lead so that the crawl would sink him.He probably thought he'd get sunk anyway so slow was the pace!!.
Anyway thanks for the reply,I welcome any more discussion on the subject,perhaps we can open up a new discussion on another thread.p.s.i'mabroad for 8 days from the 22nd of this month.
Report ZEALOT August 8, 2012 12:40 PM BST
.
Report Lex August 9, 2012 9:04 AM BST
Winners don't share. Discuss

I tried but you all thought I was bonkers. Well I aint and it works.

http://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29164201/on-the-chase?pg=1

Today will be a good day. Laugh
Report JLivermore August 9, 2012 11:08 AM BST
so it sounds like this is working out for you Lex?  number bets, average odds, strike rate, if you're happy to share...
Report duncan idaho July 18, 2018 4:45 PM BST
thanks for reply pipedreamer
Report HonkyJoe July 21, 2018 4:57 PM BST
You obviously had to wait a hell of a long time for that reply!!
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