General Betting
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
I was reading an article about trading the other week. A comment in there made me realise why the 3% of account holders in profit don't share what they're doing.
Basically, new trading strategies for the financial markets have to be invented all the time, because the moment it becomes knowledge how a particular method is successful - and is copied by others - the liquidity dries up and hence the method becomes less successful (or worse, starts to fail).
This has meant more exotic trading strategies are kept secret, and on the whole the only strategies that can be discussed openly are the ones where "everybody wins" - e.g. if everybody accepts a fundamental in an annual report means the price will go up and everybody invests, the price goes up, hence profit.
I'm thinking in terms of betting - most of us are probably aware of most strategies including dutching and backing under-round, laying over-round to payout or liability (where you can get matched!), straight trading on price movements outside of in-play, "stats bets" on 1.05 or 1000 in-play, trying to get an edge by going to the course, etc.
However, these put most of us in the 97% of accounts not making money. I'm wondering if this is because the moment you share a strategy, it becomes worthless. The only one I can think of that seems to have stood up is trading on fluctuations, but then people keep their reasoning for targeting markets and runners to themselves, so same thing.
One other contrary point I realised is that bookmaker's adopt a "betting strategy" of laying over-round, which seems to have stood up to a few hundred years of hammering... why does that strategy survive being in the open, and others do not?
In essence, it seems these last two strategies still work because there is still a fundamental disagreement over value within the markets. "I believe this is good/bad value" is the bedrock of both actually working.
Was just curious what people's thoughts are: can a successful Betfair strategy ever be shared? And if so, and you have such a strategy, perhaps you would care to prove your point... :-)
Basically, new trading strategies for the financial markets have to be invented all the time, because the moment it becomes knowledge how a particular method is successful - and is copied by others - the liquidity dries up and hence the method becomes less successful (or worse, starts to fail).
This has meant more exotic trading strategies are kept secret, and on the whole the only strategies that can be discussed openly are the ones where "everybody wins" - e.g. if everybody accepts a fundamental in an annual report means the price will go up and everybody invests, the price goes up, hence profit.
I'm thinking in terms of betting - most of us are probably aware of most strategies including dutching and backing under-round, laying over-round to payout or liability (where you can get matched!), straight trading on price movements outside of in-play, "stats bets" on 1.05 or 1000 in-play, trying to get an edge by going to the course, etc.
However, these put most of us in the 97% of accounts not making money. I'm wondering if this is because the moment you share a strategy, it becomes worthless. The only one I can think of that seems to have stood up is trading on fluctuations, but then people keep their reasoning for targeting markets and runners to themselves, so same thing.
One other contrary point I realised is that bookmaker's adopt a "betting strategy" of laying over-round, which seems to have stood up to a few hundred years of hammering... why does that strategy survive being in the open, and others do not?
In essence, it seems these last two strategies still work because there is still a fundamental disagreement over value within the markets. "I believe this is good/bad value" is the bedrock of both actually working.
Was just curious what people's thoughts are: can a successful Betfair strategy ever be shared? And if so, and you have such a strategy, perhaps you would care to prove your point... :-)
Show More
dogrelata
Now here’s the crux of the matter. For the first four months it worked really well, identifying backs, not lays as previously. However, over the course of the last month, results have been bad. This begs the question, is the last month a statistical aberration, or were the previous four months’ profits the result of luck? The answer to that question remains unknown – there’s a clear correlation evident in the data, to what extent it can be exploited is another issue.
Always have to stay ahead of the game, I'm thinking about mixing things up a little for the new year myself. In the last week of the World Cup and in the week since, people havent been lumping on favorites to the same extent they normally, what I've noticed alot more money coming into over/under markets, even though I love people gambling on a glorified coin flip its meant I've more liabilities tied up in two runner markets... which I dont like (Brazil tonight, if every day was like this I'd be posting this message by the side of my pool in the Caribbean, every game was odds on for overs).
As I havent been looking at where money goes following big tournaments in the past I can only assume people will start lumping on the favs again in the new season? Maybe I'll just go with my original plan of only following leagues that arent covered live on UK TV, theres enough liquidity in Dutch, Turkish, Russian etc markets for me. When punters have less info and still punt, it can only maximise my returns.
Who knows? Who cares? Its all a mess on here
The point is I agree with everybody who says you have to keep changing your approach, sports and racing do change fundamentally over time.
Now here’s the crux of the matter. For the first four months it worked really well, identifying backs, not lays as previously. However, over the course of the last month, results have been bad. This begs the question, is the last month a statistical aberration, or were the previous four months’ profits the result of luck? The answer to that question remains unknown – there’s a clear correlation evident in the data, to what extent it can be exploited is another issue.
Always have to stay ahead of the game, I'm thinking about mixing things up a little for the new year myself. In the last week of the World Cup and in the week since, people havent been lumping on favorites to the same extent they normally, what I've noticed alot more money coming into over/under markets, even though I love people gambling on a glorified coin flip its meant I've more liabilities tied up in two runner markets... which I dont like (Brazil tonight, if every day was like this I'd be posting this message by the side of my pool in the Caribbean, every game was odds on for overs).
As I havent been looking at where money goes following big tournaments in the past I can only assume people will start lumping on the favs again in the new season? Maybe I'll just go with my original plan of only following leagues that arent covered live on UK TV, theres enough liquidity in Dutch, Turkish, Russian etc markets for me. When punters have less info and still punt, it can only maximise my returns.
Who knows? Who cares? Its all a mess on here
The point is I agree with everybody who says you have to keep changing your approach, sports and racing do change fundamentally over time.
dogrelata
Now here’s the crux of the matter. For the first four months it worked really well, identifying backs, not lays as previously. However, over the course of the last month, results have been bad. This begs the question, is the last month a statistical aberration, or were the previous four months’ profits the result of luck? The answer to that question remains unknown – there’s a clear correlation evident in the data, to what extent it can be exploited is another issue.
Always a difficult one. You can do some statistical analysis to show the probability of you results being down to chance. Try a chitest. If you're not familiar with it - Excel Help will show you how to do it without too much sweat.
GL
Now here’s the crux of the matter. For the first four months it worked really well, identifying backs, not lays as previously. However, over the course of the last month, results have been bad. This begs the question, is the last month a statistical aberration, or were the previous four months’ profits the result of luck? The answer to that question remains unknown – there’s a clear correlation evident in the data, to what extent it can be exploited is another issue.
Always a difficult one. You can do some statistical analysis to show the probability of you results being down to chance. Try a chitest. If you're not familiar with it - Excel Help will show you how to do it without too much sweat.
GL
As the market has gotten more and more to 100% (less the commission) it has been more importent to take a view of a horse. Money is driving the market, not opinion. You will find value not by looking at the market, but the price.
You will find value not by looking at the market, but the price.
Are they not the same thing ? If not, please explain.
Are they not the same thing ? If not, please explain.
To take an extreme example, if a market is at 100% and you find a hoss at 2.2 that you value at 1.8 then that is a value bet.
At the moment the traders are dictating the market to such an extent that most horses are being over and under bet creating a market rather than a betting medium.
If you can price a horse up then you can win in the long term.
At the moment the traders are dictating the market to such an extent that most horses are being over and under bet creating a market rather than a betting medium.
If you can price a horse up then you can win in the long term.
dogrelata 18 Jul 10 17:52
That was my research. It’s hard to believe it’s over seven years since those two articles were published in SmartSig and quite a lot has changed since then.
Nice one, I still dig around the old copies of smartsig to identify anything relavent to the exchanges! Your article, interested me at the time as it was primarily based on the exchanges that were just taking off and it came at the problem from a different angle. I always said I would get round to investigating your idea a bit further but never got round to it :) On the subject of SmartSig, anyone checked out the online version ? Any good ? The quality of the articles for the magazine version steadily declined until it was stopped a couple of years ago. Have'nt checked out the online version yet but, it does'nt look like things have improved from looking at the website.
That was my research. It’s hard to believe it’s over seven years since those two articles were published in SmartSig and quite a lot has changed since then.
Nice one, I still dig around the old copies of smartsig to identify anything relavent to the exchanges! Your article, interested me at the time as it was primarily based on the exchanges that were just taking off and it came at the problem from a different angle. I always said I would get round to investigating your idea a bit further but never got round to it :) On the subject of SmartSig, anyone checked out the online version ? Any good ? The quality of the articles for the magazine version steadily declined until it was stopped a couple of years ago. Have'nt checked out the online version yet but, it does'nt look like things have improved from looking at the website.
A good read this thread. I said a long time ago on various threads that the best way to make a profit on here long-term, is for people to stop trying to predict the future and concentrate on predicting the punters and how they bet. I have not looked back since realizing this.
I had a great WC betting and won alot by over staking because I could not believe the prices on offer. But I accept this was a one-off. I will take my winnings and return to trading. I had a good month being Mystic Meg but I have had years of disappointment being Mystic Meg beforehand.
I had a great WC betting and won alot by over staking because I could not believe the prices on offer. But I accept this was a one-off. I will take my winnings and return to trading. I had a good month being Mystic Meg but I have had years of disappointment being Mystic Meg beforehand.
the best way to make a profit on here long-term, is for people to stop trying to predict the future and concentrate on predicting the punters and how they bet.
I've been saying that for ages.
I've been saying that for ages.
I.quit & Kenilworth
I agree. We can describe it in different ways. For me it's the Confirmation Bias we discussed earlier in the thread.
I agree. We can describe it in different ways. For me it's the Confirmation Bias we discussed earlier in the thread.
No.
Predict the future and value falls out of the markets like rain from the sky.
Predict how punters bet and you are a trader, feeding the market until the market feeds on you.
If people only bet according to how other people bet you soon have a very circular argument.
Predict the future and value falls out of the markets like rain from the sky.
Predict how punters bet and you are a trader, feeding the market until the market feeds on you.
If people only bet according to how other people bet you soon have a very circular argument.
good point. I told this ages ago but no one listened. It is important to understand punters behaviour (odds changes) , game (odds) and body language of players. Back favourites when they are struggling and you can get good odds. Lay underdogs when cruising. ofcourse timing your bets and trading at right times are crucial. If you can do that then you are winner.
ofcourse timing your bets and trading at right times are crucial. If you can do that then you are winner.
Is that not forecasting the future ? No one but clairvoyants can do that.
Is that not forecasting the future ? No one but clairvoyants can do that.
If people only bet according to how other people bet you soon have a very circular argument.
That is fundamental to how it works.
That is fundamental to how it works.
kenilworth Joined: 04 Nov 05
Replies: 2694 21 Jul 10 06:35
Is that not forecasting the future ? No one but clairvoyants can do that.
Well, if Man Utd are playing at home against Wigan, who happened to score an early goal. Since then Man U have been battering Wigan but have failed to break through and equalise. It reaches HT. I'd say it's not being clairvoyant to suppose the chances of Man U scoring in the second half are high. Backing Man U at say 1.9 or laying Wigan at HT would, in my opinion, be a good bet at that point. And all without psychic powers.
Replies: 2694 21 Jul 10 06:35
Is that not forecasting the future ? No one but clairvoyants can do that.
Well, if Man Utd are playing at home against Wigan, who happened to score an early goal. Since then Man U have been battering Wigan but have failed to break through and equalise. It reaches HT. I'd say it's not being clairvoyant to suppose the chances of Man U scoring in the second half are high. Backing Man U at say 1.9 or laying Wigan at HT would, in my opinion, be a good bet at that point. And all without psychic powers.
Backing Man U at say 1.9 or laying Wigan at HT would, in my opinion, be a good bet at that point. And all without psychic powers
It's all about prices. Manu to win the second half by 2 goals or more at 1.9 ? what if it was 1.6, or 1.4 ?
If it hasn't happened, it may not happen, don't forget that.
It's all about prices. Manu to win the second half by 2 goals or more at 1.9 ? what if it was 1.6, or 1.4 ?
If it hasn't happened, it may not happen, don't forget that.
If winners don't share then this thread is useless because it can only ever be a discusion between the losers on the site.
The main winners are the bookmakers I think, William Hill and the others. Seems to be a license to print money for them.
Their licence to print money is in the FOB's they have in the shops, also
virtual racing. Match Odds football betting is very difficult for them
because of the competative nature of it.
virtual racing. Match Odds football betting is very difficult for them
because of the competative nature of it.
I heard Coral almost went bust during Euro 2004 when all the favourites won in the quarter finals.
As if they would put themselves in that position! The whole point of offering a 110% book is that you don't need to gamble, surely.
trevh, they CAN lose on individual matches as the money taken
in any match is out of proportion to the %chance of 3 options
happening, for instance the draw may attract perhaps just 10%
of the take, despite having a near 30%chance of occurring and
is therefore usually a good result. Having said that, the margins
they work to inevitably ensure a profit in the end.
in any match is out of proportion to the %chance of 3 options
happening, for instance the draw may attract perhaps just 10%
of the take, despite having a near 30%chance of occurring and
is therefore usually a good result. Having said that, the margins
they work to inevitably ensure a profit in the end.
All the money goes on the favourite in football betting. If they get a long run of favourites winning they are ****ed.
Correct avocado
88% of the cash in the LA Galaxy 90mins market is losing, they were best priced 1.58 pre KO.
If LA get 2 goals and come back, the books will lose money.
88% of the cash in the LA Galaxy 90mins market is losing, they were best priced 1.58 pre KO.
If LA get 2 goals and come back, the books will lose money.
Yeah. They would lose a lot more money if it was a Premiership game or something more high profile.
368/407.. IR Lays last 26 Days..90.42% SR
Fast pics got nothing to do with it.
Fast pics got nothing to do with it.
Is that purely from a racereading angle or have you taken a view about the form of horse pre-race aswell, kohaku (or mix of both!)?
ps hope you're laying at under 10/1!
ps hope you're laying at under 10/1!
Dunc.
When I first came on here 9 yrs ago. I made 2k the first month.doing what I am now doing again, only its been seriously tweaked,but the principle is the same.
The goal posts moved.and I started to lose,due to the advent of fast pics etc.
Its based on logic,mathematics,human error..
Saturdays highlight this beauifully..ex Last 3. were 74/78..94.87 % SR.
When I first came on here 9 yrs ago. I made 2k the first month.doing what I am now doing again, only its been seriously tweaked,but the principle is the same.
The goal posts moved.and I started to lose,due to the advent of fast pics etc.
Its based on logic,mathematics,human error..
Saturdays highlight this beauifully..ex Last 3. were 74/78..94.87 % SR.
I dont watch the race,study the race,or listen to any pundits etc.
I just go into Robot mode for 3 - 6 hrs.
Have no emotions,nothing..
I will keep this updated.
Flat Racing only...them IR backers dont get much time to use their trigger finger. esp Sats.
I just go into Robot mode for 3 - 6 hrs.
Have no emotions,nothing..
I will keep this updated.
Flat Racing only...them IR backers dont get much time to use their trigger finger. esp Sats.
Intriguing, kohaku. I bet it's harder than it was 9 yrs ago! Certainly a healthy strike rate. Do you use any software for IR (one-click?) or just normal Betfair interface? Thanks for posting and good luck.
Try and name the winner half way through a race.It's just as difficult as before the start,yet the odds on some runners have halved.(admittedly some will have dropped away)
The first horse that shortens significantly in running usually is not the eventual winner.
The first horse that shortens significantly in running usually is not the eventual winner.
''The first horse that shortens significantly in running usually is not the eventual winner.''
The betting isnt suggesting it would be unless it has gone odds-on
The betting isnt suggesting it would be unless it has gone odds-on
Thinking Outside the Box..is the way forward nowdays..
You have to do the OPPOSITE to what the majority do,to WIN.
Its the same with shares,although its going against human nature.
Let the stats take care of it.
Looking at IR prices after each race,is the Key.
You have to do the OPPOSITE to what the majority do,to WIN.
Its the same with shares,although its going against human nature.
Let the stats take care of it.
Looking at IR prices after each race,is the Key.
Latest Update.
Last. 7 Days..Horse Racing: £1,078.19 | Tote: | Total P&L: £1,078.19
Last 28 Days.+ £3063
Last.30 Days..Horse Racing: £2,603.55 | Tote: | Total P&L: £2,603.55
Total Lays IR. 28 Days
390/430........90.70 %..SR.
Has it been Done..Will continue update until 1000 race sample.
Last. 7 Days..Horse Racing: £1,078.19 | Tote: | Total P&L: £1,078.19
Last 28 Days.+ £3063
Last.30 Days..Horse Racing: £2,603.55 | Tote: | Total P&L: £2,603.55
Total Lays IR. 28 Days
390/430........90.70 %..SR.
Has it been Done..Will continue update until 1000 race sample.
K, impressive figures. You must have nerves of steel and/or a very good approach to play IR blind. I sometimes dip in that way, but by the time I've enough confidence to place a bet the moment is usually gone. There are some sports where I find pictures do hinder me and I much prefer to watch the market and work out my bet based on the overall situation.
Must say I miss your hunter chase write-ups.
Must say I miss your hunter chase write-ups.
REM
No nerves at all.Robot.
Imperative that i do NOT watch the RUK races,forming opinions IR is fraught with massive danger.
Had a couple of 1.01's 1.05 & 1.08 beat.
The stats say,carry on. In another plus £200,moving up to Level 5
= Even more Profit.
No nerves at all.Robot.
Imperative that i do NOT watch the RUK races,forming opinions IR is fraught with massive danger.
Had a couple of 1.01's 1.05 & 1.08 beat.
The stats say,carry on. In another plus £200,moving up to Level 5
= Even more Profit.
Weekly update later 2 day. Sat-Thur totally dif to previous 4 weeks,for some unknown reason.
Update after 7.35 HAM..
System having best ever day 17/17..+ £479
Hope it doesnt go t1ts up over last 2 races..Stopping on a LOSS
System having best ever day 17/17..+ £479
Hope it doesnt go t1ts up over last 2 races..Stopping on a LOSS
Started the week (Last Sat) with my ar$e kicked on race 1..
Broke one of my written rules.Forget CHESTER.Lost over 300 there.ended the day with system worse.LOSS £536.by end Thurs Losing £552.
Back with system best today.. 20/20,got 2 in the 7.35 H
Today..Horse Racing: £570.21 | Tote: | Total P&L: £570.21
Last 7 Days.. + £18.
System Total (35 Days) PROFIT..£3081.
446/496...89.92% SR
Current Winning Run 20. Previous bests 21.25x3. 27x2
Hoping tomorrow is back to norm..
Less is More.
Broke one of my written rules.Forget CHESTER.Lost over 300 there.ended the day with system worse.LOSS £536.by end Thurs Losing £552.
Back with system best today.. 20/20,got 2 in the 7.35 H
Today..Horse Racing: £570.21 | Tote: | Total P&L: £570.21
Last 7 Days.. + £18.
System Total (35 Days) PROFIT..£3081.
446/496...89.92% SR
Current Winning Run 20. Previous bests 21.25x3. 27x2
Hoping tomorrow is back to norm..
Less is More.
how about most of bf profit memebers are the bookmakers
kohaku...so u lost 536 last saturday.....did u lose anonther 552 between sunday and thursday?
No Freddie...
I held on well to be a total of 552 down by end of Thurs play.
I held on well to be a total of 552 down by end of Thurs play.
Obviously a consolidation phase,which is healthy in the march forward.
Hopefully.
Hopefully.
Yes Freddie.
Sat UpDate...Horse Racing: £514.64 | Tote: | Total P&L: £514.64
System.25/27..92.59% SR---Profit £363.
36 Days.471/523..Back over 90 at 90.06% SR
Profit £3444.
Dont forget...Less is More
Sat UpDate...Horse Racing: £514.64 | Tote: | Total P&L: £514.64
System.25/27..92.59% SR---Profit £363.
36 Days.471/523..Back over 90 at 90.06% SR
Profit £3444.
Dont forget...Less is More
thanks for clarifying kohaku
why do u think saturday to the thursday was so bad?
why do u think saturday to the thursday was so bad?
End of an Amazing 3 Days 60/62 ..96.77% SR.
On current winning run of 30
Not bad for an old git with slow pics.
Experience Counts.imo..
Watch the Replay of 4.55 Y..Knot Garden 6/5 IR. lol
Fast Pic idiots,cutting each others throats
On current winning run of 30
Not bad for an old git with slow pics.
Experience Counts.imo..
Watch the Replay of 4.55 Y..Knot Garden 6/5 IR. lol
Fast Pic idiots,cutting each others throats
Did any one else read a certain large bookies (lad*b) artical about the world cup ???
All bets recieved on there website, that were placed inrunning during the match..
were ALL matched against betfair , and other online providers !!
I kid u not they to no risk, yet did a Huge turnover..
All bets recieved on there website, that were placed inrunning during the match..
were ALL matched against betfair , and other online providers !!
I kid u not they to no risk, yet did a Huge turnover..
Update.. System Aborted after 6 weeks..
Had a blinding 3 days £1400 ( High + £3904)
followed by a p1ss poor week.lost 4 from 5 days.
Gratefully took the £2910 profit.. May resume for the final RUK meets for small stakes.
Gone back to Selective Back/Lay IR..
The obvious just scored at Newcastle Calypso Magic..6/4 Win or Lose.
Had a blinding 3 days £1400 ( High + £3904)
followed by a p1ss poor week.lost 4 from 5 days.
Gratefully took the £2910 profit.. May resume for the final RUK meets for small stakes.
Gone back to Selective Back/Lay IR..
The obvious just scored at Newcastle Calypso Magic..6/4 Win or Lose.
3.10 Bath.
Layed Yurutuni at 3.8
Packing up taking, the £93 profit for 90 mins minor effort.
Layed Yurutuni at 3.8
Packing up taking, the £93 profit for 90 mins minor effort.
Update 9 Oct from 24/7
Highest + £3904
Went a bit t1ts up when the ground went,went down to +£2350.
Adapted and reduced stakes by 50%
Today 12/12 + £179..Total + £3064
Highest + £3904
Went a bit t1ts up when the ground went,went down to +£2350.
Adapted and reduced stakes by 50%
Today 12/12 + £179..Total + £3064
so the point earlier in the thread regarding robben , if i was laying to a level stakes £50 should my new lay be 50*2.73 ????
thanks
thanks
New Henderson B/Lay IR System launched today
Objective to win stake.win or lose.
Level 1. £50
Bet 1. Lets Get Serious WON... + £57 (probably robbed this time),but all part of the stats.
Objective to win stake.win or lose.
Level 1. £50
Bet 1. Lets Get Serious WON... + £57 (probably robbed this time),but all part of the stats.
don't quite understand mate - could you explain please ?
I had £50 at 4.7 (could have had 6.6 pre race)
Layed £50 at 2.7 to get my money back.(free £100 ie the 2pts) & £50 at 1.8 for potential profit..
Layed £50 at 2.7 to get my money back.(free £100 ie the 2pts) & £50 at 1.8 for potential profit..
How accurate is the money punted on here as to where the money is going ?
maybe theyve all started winning 
when i browse these forums, i actually feel like a god looking down on ants pushing rocks around, getting nowhere.
forget everything you think you know about betfair and youll be in a far better position
when i browse these forums, i actually feel like a god looking down on ants pushing rocks around, getting nowhere.
forget everything you think you know about betfair and youll be in a far better position
Glasgow Brian Joined: 03 Feb 09
Replies: 1122 18 Oct 10 12:22
How accurate is the money punted on here as to where the money is going ?
60% of the time it works every tme
Replies: 1122 18 Oct 10 12:22
How accurate is the money punted on here as to where the money is going ?
60% of the time it works every tme
clacherholiday2 can I ask You couple of questions concerning this thread earlier on in private? it has now gone whole different way than it use to be...my email is haifisch(at)hot(dot)ee.
Amazing this post.
Really good content on first 4 pages then...........!!!
Really good content on first 4 pages then...........!!!
Hi,i'm willing to give people help as regards understanding form,and how to interpret it correctly.Ive been punting for 40 years and should have won a pile.Unfotunately as in the case of Abu Kadra [Nov Handicap 1988?]i was asked that as it was the outsider of 24,how could i be right and everybody else wrong?,exactly what i was thinking myself.The horse travelled in second place all the way down the straight travelling like a 5 to 1 on shot just waiting to go,and duly hosed up.So i reckon i know a bit,shame about the lack of confidence,[betting shop punters negativity?],anyway.
I will not discuss "systems".So to start,tell me all the things that you think you need to cover as regards what you think comes under the banner of "form",and marks out of ten as to how important you rate them.
I will not discuss "systems".So to start,tell me all the things that you think you need to cover as regards what you think comes under the banner of "form",and marks out of ten as to how important you rate them.
You people are a waste of space!!.if you dont want to discuss anything,dont waste my time by giving the impression that you do!!!!.
It's not much to discuss. People have tried hard to find something to talk about, over the years that Betfair have existed. For example a trivial subject as "value" have been discussed to malediction, from every possible angle. Many members have also been old and tired over the years, and younger generations are quicker to learn. Anyway, I sincerely hope you can find someone who can at least fake some enthusiasm.
Good luck and good night!
Good luck and good night!
tier 19 Oct 10 13:24
clacherholiday2 can I ask You couple of questions concerning this thread earlier on in private? it has now gone whole different way than it use to be...my email is haifisch(at)hot(dot)ee.
If you ever see this then just send me a message on here.
clacherholiday2 can I ask You couple of questions concerning this thread earlier on in private? it has now gone whole different way than it use to be...my email is haifisch(at)hot(dot)ee.
If you ever see this then just send me a message on here.
pipedreamer, if you look at the dates, you will realise that this is a very old thread 
Out of interest, which factors do you consider the most important re. form study? is there anything that others prob dont routinely use that you consider important? cheers
Out of interest, which factors do you consider the most important re. form study? is there anything that others prob dont routinely use that you consider important? cheers
Duncan Id,i actually have no idea as to what other punters think as regards form,i was mailing a guy a few months ago re looking at form and the value of certain horses being held up in the rear and coming thru to win when it was a slow pace early, and the horse being the only one to come from the rear.Of course the placed horses in said race must have raced prominently,esp if the 2nd actually led and didnt get taken on.
He mailed me a few weeks later and told me that Nick Mordin had that week put it in his column in the weekender as a system to use.Iwas astounded,AS I THOUGHT THAT ALL PUNTERS USED IT WHEN WORKING OUT FORM!!!.
I have tried b4 to discuss such stuff on here and actually received no replies!!!!.As i say i have no idea how punters think.Well actually theres a lot of nonsense spoke as regards punters comparing Group form and handicap form,esp big field handicaps.
Theres a world of difference between a fast run cavalry charge up the straight,i.e. Lincoln,and a small field group/listed race where theres no pace,something that sinks St Nick Abbey etc.
only the other day at Chester,punters were supposedly surprised when Brown Bomber finished last.He had won a very fast run race when being held up at Royal Ascot.So small was the field at Chester and surprise surprise no pace on that Fallon at one point had to actually attempt to take the lead so that the crawl would sink him.He probably thought he'd get sunk anyway so slow was the pace!!.
Anyway thanks for the reply,I welcome any more discussion on the subject,perhaps we can open up a new discussion on another thread.p.s.i'mabroad for 8 days from the 22nd of this month.
He mailed me a few weeks later and told me that Nick Mordin had that week put it in his column in the weekender as a system to use.Iwas astounded,AS I THOUGHT THAT ALL PUNTERS USED IT WHEN WORKING OUT FORM!!!.
I have tried b4 to discuss such stuff on here and actually received no replies!!!!.As i say i have no idea how punters think.Well actually theres a lot of nonsense spoke as regards punters comparing Group form and handicap form,esp big field handicaps.
Theres a world of difference between a fast run cavalry charge up the straight,i.e. Lincoln,and a small field group/listed race where theres no pace,something that sinks St Nick Abbey etc.
only the other day at Chester,punters were supposedly surprised when Brown Bomber finished last.He had won a very fast run race when being held up at Royal Ascot.So small was the field at Chester and surprise surprise no pace on that Fallon at one point had to actually attempt to take the lead so that the crawl would sink him.He probably thought he'd get sunk anyway so slow was the pace!!.
Anyway thanks for the reply,I welcome any more discussion on the subject,perhaps we can open up a new discussion on another thread.p.s.i'mabroad for 8 days from the 22nd of this month.
Winners don't share. Discuss
I tried but you all thought I was bonkers. Well I aint and it works.
http://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29164201/on-the-chase?pg=1
Today will be a good day.
I tried but you all thought I was bonkers. Well I aint and it works.
http://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/29164201/on-the-chase?pg=1
Today will be a good day.
so it sounds like this is working out for you Lex? number bets, average odds, strike rate, if you're happy to share...
You obviously had to wait a hell of a long time for that reply!!
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539