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General Betting
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If you know that selection A has odds x of placing in a 2 winners race and selection B has odds y, what is then the odds that both A and B will place?
Can your answer be generalized to a multiple (>2) winner race?
Can your answer be generalized to a multiple (>2) winner race?
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Replies: 4
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Are you asking how to calculate a dual forecast?
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I am not 100% sure of the terminology here, but I think that is what I am asking:-) I would also like to do this for races with more than two winners (triple forecast?)
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Not sure if there is a general formula. This is my view on it from learning about conditional probability back in the 1960s.
This Assumes that the odds are digital and it is a 100% book. Two horses, horse A with odds of 2 and horse B with odds of 5 running in a race against other horses. There 2 ways of both being placed, A is First, B second and B first and A second. A to be First, B second The chances of horse A winning is 2 ie 50% chance. To find the chances of horse B being second, consider it to be a race without horse A competing. The new market is now 50% of the original because Horse A's percentage has been removed. Horse B's percentage of the new market is 1/5 divided by 50% which gives 40% Therefore percentage probability of A being for first is 50% percentage probability of B being second given that A has won is 40% the probability of both occurring is 50% * 40% = 20% The same calculation for B first and A second works out as 12.5% The means that the probability of one way or the other will occur is the sum 20% 12.5% = 32.5% Digital odds of 3.08 To do it for 3 place event is much more complicated as there are 6 ways of achieving it: ABC,ACB,BAC,BCA,CAB and CBA These each have to be worked out with the third place being calculated with the first two horse's percentages removed. This should be simple to put in to a spreadsheet. In reality there are problems some NH horses are fast but are dodgy jumpers. They either win or fail to complete rarely are they placed. |
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Thanks a lot Lay Low. Was thinking along those lines but was unsure if there was a simpler way. More answers like this, and this would be a great forum[:)]
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