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General Betting
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I produce ratings for football matches, these ratings are used to produce prices for 1x2.
Currently I take the Rating Home Team - Rating Away Team to produce a match rating. I have results for my ratings over 1000s of games, and I can model from this what percentage of any given rating will finish in a 1,x or 2.
It's not perfect but going in the right direction. However I think I might be able to improve it if I can incorporate the following.
My reasoning is this Home Team Rating 45 - Away Team Rating 67, produces a rating of -22, as does a HTR of 14 against an ATR of 36. How can I measure the significance of the home team rating in the percentage of 1,x,2 outcomes?
If you need further clarification let me know.
Currently I take the Rating Home Team - Rating Away Team to produce a match rating. I have results for my ratings over 1000s of games, and I can model from this what percentage of any given rating will finish in a 1,x or 2.
It's not perfect but going in the right direction. However I think I might be able to improve it if I can incorporate the following.
My reasoning is this Home Team Rating 45 - Away Team Rating 67, produces a rating of -22, as does a HTR of 14 against an ATR of 36. How can I measure the significance of the home team rating in the percentage of 1,x,2 outcomes?
If you need further clarification let me know.
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How about running a pivot table in Excel (Took me less than a day to learn using google)
For instance: You could chart "Difference" across the top, in groups of 10pts or 5pts or whatever, rather than exact numbers and "Home rating" down the side. That way, for example, you'd see if a Difference of 6-10 pts when the home rating was 46-50 was the same as a difference of 6-10 pts when the home rating was 21-30 |
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That sounds worth a look.
Cheers. |