Slicer's World Cup Thread-Final ever thread and postings

ace- read my previous post regarding not spending too much time on it.

I am not around for tonite's games.

Good nite and good luck.

Good Morning Dr I hope this very sunny day finds you well.

Regarding the HG, would it be correct to say that after Bet 3 at HT no other bets are required , the Bet 3 sequence is sufficient to ensure no loss on the game or a small prophet, whatever the result.

Hope you made lots of monet out of the Uruguay game.

Additionally, it strikes me that commission plays a large part of this conundrum, anybody on or around 5% shouldn't waste their time looking as prophets would be lost before you start.

Have a good day.

Wot no bets??? [:p]

dr dr...............where are u?

Good Dr wear art thou? Seem to remember that your HG method was introduced in euro 2008 and applied to all games and premiership games in that season according to ur stats. How come in diss world cup there have only been a few games where  HG qulifies? Is it because peple r getting wise to ur methods and /or people have worked out bet tree? shirley any HG method would be 100% fullproof and guranteed 4 all footy matches anywhere in da world? Appreciate ur words of wisdom in advance

dr zipper ...wherefore art thou??????



hope u didnt go for a walk in the scrap yard again and walk under the big magnet!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Puma
"you are right tier, i dont believe you can lay 100 and back 95 and be able to create all green book at HT, never mind lay 100 and back 18, that would be massive % profit if goal in 1st half, and still guarantee profit if 0-0? thats just silly..."
Totally agree with you. There is no way that the Full-Time Correct-Score odds can be so out of line as to actually compensate for losses incurred cos of Half-Time 0-0 Lay.

Dr Slicer .. i am extremely concerned about your well being...i am praying you are ok.[:(]

this thread is total and utter b@llo@x!! anyone who eats this crap needs there head testing

Good Dr I hope you are well, look forward with anticipation to your comments on the recent games and whether you have won any monet gamboling on them. Odds have been restrictive and have produced some good opportunites to Lay Lay Lay.

...i am praying you are ok

Praying is, and always has been, rather pointless. I trust that was said in jest.

Kingmax has it right. What a bunch of sycophants! The post below is from 2008 but it holds true today: http://green-all-over.blogspot.com/2008/12/roulette-system-win-or-your-money...

cpfc4me the link You provided is incomplete...

i am really really worried now...will someone please update us on the dear doctors health?..god bless you slicer

http://green-all-over.blogspot.com/2008/12/roulette-system-win-or-your-money-back.html

Stupid new forum! [:x]

Its a good article and a fair point. But if somewhere is value then that doesn't 100% mean that this will or can not happen. So I think Slicer finds games where sth is out of a true price or has value (game selection) and then bet1 and bet2 will buy him time until half time and by then this value bet has taken its true price maybe.... In that way it sounds logical how to exploit value prices risk free....

But the question in that case would be that how to determine true price? surely every game has different % of outcomes. It is not that 0-0 ie has always the same %. During a game it is easier because you have starting prices to compare with and you know how some scoreline price should move during time if its goalless. Yet again if it doesnt move according then again question arises that maybe it was wrond at KO and is correct now....

If Spicer is saying he greens out of the 0-0 at HT and then places 'bet 3' which makes up for the rest of the money lost from bet 1 then he is basically saying that he has a guaranteed way of making a profit during HT which is not possible.  If it were possible then why would he bother with bets 1 and 2 in the first place?  i.e. why not just place your 'guaranteed' bet 3 on every match?!

I dont think he is saying that. He just lays off some of it and that is not the whole adjustment it might involve some more lays or bets and after that bet 3 also. So basically these figures that he gave here it seems more of a building overround book by betting not by trading 0-0 ft and using this free bet to cover everything else. I did some calculations and if bet1 is lay HT 0-0 and it usually is around 3.0 odds that would mean backing at 1.5'sh odds. Then bet2 is about 11'sh odds. that means that at HT if its 0-0 he needs combined odds around 4'sh to get into profit and cover everything else....I cant see any combination of bets that provide these odds to cover the rest yet....

Spicer has always been careful to guard against disclosing the nature of Bet 3 on the basis that it is essential to maintain his edge.

Surely any Betfair employee could pick it up from his account and any advantage would have been lost by now.

tier you haven't found any combination of bets to provide the required odds to cover the losses from bet one because there aren't any!  The 'edge' provided from bet 2 of taking the 0-0 FT odds at the start of the match and then trading out at HT only covers you so far - after that it doesn't matter what combination of backs/lays you place on whatever scoreline etc, the markets are too efficient to allow any 'guaranteed' profit as Slicer claims.  Slicer seems like quite a jovial character in some respects but really it seems to me that lots of people like yourself have wasted a lot of time thanks to him looking for something that blatantly isn't there....

I think you have hit the nail on the head Boldpunter. Football markets are simply too efficient to allow for any Holy Grail type of wrong price on a frequent basis. You may occasionally find an anomaly in-running that allows you to make a guaranteed profit, but on a World Cup game with millions traded and thousands of individuals watching and running their own calculations, it is simply not credible that a Holy grail exists. Slicer may be mildly entertaining but he is not the guru that so many seem to think he is. And as Kafkaland says, any interested person at Betfair with access to account history would easily be able to see what Bet 3 is and the advantage would be lost.

evenning folks, just a idea, what happens to 1-1 odds in second half when first goal is scored.
just been playing with the 'what if' button, i found that if you turned your 0-0 score into freebet, left enough to cover loss of bet 1 and shoved rest on 1-1 score.
depending who scores first this score line will reduce in odds by alot or a smaller amount, either way you will be able to green up on correct score.
two quick goals will cause issues as will i late goal.
any feedback

commission comes into play when you're playing more than one market too and that is not to be underestimated

yes buzzer, but i would be trading on one market and spreading profit,so commission is not a big issue.
i guess if it stays 1-0 to ghana half time, the 1-1 odds would give us a idea of how a early second half goal would effect 1-1 odds.
1-1 before game 7.4 odds.

jepfrog as you said yourself late goal will ruin it. now you could overcome that by leaving a little more on 0-0 for late laying. but this does not work anyway even if there is early goal in second half. 1-1 odds should roughly over take the odds of 0-1 or 1-0 depends who scores. also if fav scores right at the beginning of second half surely market will expect them to go on and win now so 1-1 might not overtake underdogs 0-1 odds but drift instead...

1-1 on ghana game has come in from 7.4 to 4.8 (lay), remember usa were starting favourites.
so odds would reflect early goal second half.
what i have noticed that shoving most of 0-0 profits on 1-1 to green up after goal only works were their is a big enough gap between odds on h-t 0-0 & 0-0 f-t pre match, which kind of fits in with slicers puzzle.

the goal was scored in 1st half and USA favorites so 1-1 overtook odds of what would be USA 1-0 if it were goalless

also USA is holding initiative and market expects them to score one more that is why these odds have come in. if it was USA 1-0 ahead and holding still initiative then 1-1 odds would have drifted. but HG must work whoever scores first. also HG would have won by 1st half goal so I think you really cant figure out anythiing by looking at the odds now. you have to look games that are 0-0 at half time and then examine the odds available and how they move in second half

true tier, can't base on one paper test, will have to wait test another time.

Couple of the original postings:

goosesnake1    27 Jun 14:14

right then hear goes.

i think that it is

bet 1 lay 0-0 ht score!

bet2 back 0-0 correct score!

if game still 0-0 at ht like last night then bet 3 happens

bet 3 lay 0-0 correct score at half time

am i right or near there slicer

    
Slicer    27 Jun 14:27

Snakey- you are not close, but you are looking in the right direction.



The only person who appeared to test it out properly was Whelk:
    

whelk    03 Mar 19:32

    I won't say that it can never happen, but there does not appear, following a detailed spreadsheet analysis, to be three bets, starting with a lay of HT 0-0, that can guarantee a return in all circumstances. There are some FT scores that are unlikely to occur after a HT 0-0, but the fact that they are possible invalidates the claim.

It occurred to me that that encouraging punters to lay HT 0-0 might tweak the odds a bit, and an investigation of sequences containing a 0-0 HT back produces several dynamic overround sequences which require a lot of management to guarantee a small return.


Slicer is probably in his N.London flat watching reruns of Countdown and laughing at you all.

Slicer also said that bet 3 was placed during HT and not before or after so I don't think that can be right.  As you say, if you are trying to trade the 1-1 then 2 quick goals by one team would lose you everything and whether the odds drop after a goal is not a certainty in any case. 

It goes back to my original point that Slicer is basically saying he can make a guaranteed profit during HT using a combination of different bets which just isn't possible.  I think trying to come up with an alternative strategy like your 1-1 idea is a much better use of everyone's time though.  It may not be a guaranteed winning bet/trade but at least it definitely exists!

Let's hope Young Slicer is alive and well, and hasn't been clawed to death by Panther and Jaguar just because he didn't get their Go-Cat in their bowls on time. Those two are notorious, and don't take prisoners.

haha in Orientboy's post dr Slicer says his stuff at 27 of June which is also today so I first thought he is back :D

but anyway what is strange is that back in 2008 Slicer left an impression that bet 3 was actually placed some time into second half. As I see Orientboy has older posts also so I think he can verify that. And also that sounds more logical to make an averround book. But yeah in HT I have also studied match odds, CS, O/U, NG markets which are main markets and there I can't see any opportunity. basically it should be enough when looking CS market because arbers make sure anyway that all the other markets correspond...

yes it did occur to me that slicer might be doing the exact opposite of what he says, if you back 00HT and lay 00FT for slightly more you still profit as soon as a 1st half goal goes in, i only looked at a handful of games but depending one the 00 odds you can get out at HT with very small + or small -, you are certainly in a better position at HT than had you layed 00HT and backed 00FT, but still doesnt look like a plausible strategy...

yep I also have studied the so called reverse Slicer strategy and came to same conclusion as puma that it looks even better but yet again sth is missing to make it bulletproof

from what i have read, bet3 or combination of bets are all placed at half time, no adjustment needed during second half play.
i have been doing my nut for months, making many mistakes at work well dreaming about numbers, last few minutes i have found something interesting.
look forward to testing after many false starts.

The whole idea of a Holy Grail is nonsense. How can there ever be a Holy Grail when the price you need on Bet 3 may just not be available? There are no guaranteed prices on an exchange! ok, so you can probably rely on 1.01 being available, but if Bet 3 is say back outcome x at price y, it assumes that price y will be available which adds a variable into the equation that invalidates the whole idea of a Holy Grail.

I think if one picks a game with enough liquidity then they will be available. And if its 0-0 at HT then the prices in football CS market are pretty predictable. Arbers make sure of that. And the twist is that bet3 is only needed if its 0-0 at HT otherwise you have already won. So if some prices are at some favourable range at KO then if its still 0-0 at HT you would know where they are and if liquidity is there also then I think this would not be a problem. The problem is to make an overround book which seems quite impossible especially by staking like this latest information from Dr. Slicer.

The problem you have is you have an idea but have to wait an age to get enough games to be 0-0 at HT to try them out.

It occurred to me that that encouraging punters to lay HT 0-0 might tweak the odds a bit, and an investigation of sequences containing a 0-0 HT back produces several dynamic overround sequences which require a lot of management to guarantee a small return.

Could the "Holy Grail" simply have been an elaborate ramping exercise, playing on the greed and desperation of those trying to "crack" the HG code in order to manipulate prices for slicer's benefit?

I't has occured to everyone at least once I think but I dont think this is the case. Because I think euro 2008 and WC2010 are far too big markets so that you could manipulate it. And the second thing is that before this time Slicer actually most of the times didn't tell before hand which games he is going to be on. Only couple of games at the end of euros and now during WC but in the meanwhile english leagues where actually there might be impact on markets if you want to manipulate because liquidity is not so high there he only told during the game on which he was on...

[i]h0rnets1988 Joined: 09 Jun 10
Replies: 302 11 Jun 10 19:48 
Ive heard on other forums about you and now i meet you, basically from what i have heard you talk bollocks and there is no holy grail at all

The only sensible post made by this clown

Any news from Dr. Slicer?

Dr.Slicer...is it true that u can win much much more if the HG goes for the second half for adjusting bet 2 and placing ( combinations ) bet 3? ;)
I need only "yes" or "no" :)

ttt for later reading.

Slicer you old fox, enigmatic to the last. You will be missed on the deli counter, was it you who stole the Berkel?

I don't believe there is a holy grail, but...

... if you set up a bet that allows you to create an overround book, you can assemble those other hedge bets into the book as the match progresses.

The idea is sound. If the first bet wins you win, but you might also do some consolidation on the hedges to maximise your return. If the bet loses you will have built up a series of hedges that give you your overround.

Do you think there would be a market for my spreadsheet?

whelk could You explain it a little more I cant understand what hedge bets are You talking about? and how much are You thinking for this spreadsheet?

OK, let's pretend there is a holy grail. I'm sure that everyone else has done these calculations.

You lay HT 0:0, £35.71 at 2.8, but that loses you 64.28 if there's no goal.
You bet Correct Score 0:0 as a hedge £32 at 9.4, so you actually make £1.94 after commission if there's a first half goal.
At half time and no goal you lay Correct Score 0:0, £65.39 at 4.6 making you £31.73 after commission. So 0:0 at half time loses you £32.55.

Any holy grail has to make a profit whatever the outcome, so it obviously isn't that one. Experiment with other 3 bet combinations.

So you have to think like a bookie. On course, I can get more money on the favourite by offering 13 to 8 when everyone else is offering 6 to 4, but this is a betting exchange so you can't offer odds unilaterally in the same way. But inplay markets are dynamic and you can use the movements that occur to emulate a book with the aim of creating an overround. This book has your original bet(s) as part of the book. If the first bet wins you are in profit and move on.

Things like red cards can go either way but are generally not fatal.

The spreadsheet is simply a way of quickly calculating the required odds to overround the book.

I think the real problem is that punters think about outcomes, who will win, will it be overs or unders.

This problem requires that you understand how each market moves.

whelk was it You back in 2008 who discovered sth to do with one red market? Also as You notice now Slicer is saying that staking isnt so...he is more of suggesting that it is a bet building overround without trading/hedging bets. I think I would be interested in Your spreadsheet...so how much? :P

Just to illustrate.

Lets assume that bet one wins you £100 and you have a £100 hedge bet at 8. The price has now gone to 11 so you lay 72.73 at 11 and red out with a £27 loss on that market but a £70 win overall.

how could equate these hedge bets to correct score, how would you treat 0-0 arb at half time and then how do you place hedge bets on which scores

I've already said that I don't believe there is a reliable three bet combination.

My previous post was an exaggeration for illustration purposes. You would more likely red out to make a few pounds overall.

Laying HT 0:0 is an obvious candidate because if a goal is scored you win and if there's no goal you build your book.

There aren't any easy solutions, which is why you need an overround calculator on your spreadsheet and some stats on the way markets change over time.

I'm quite interested in the Maths. It's all about manipulating numbers.

but if You have layed HT 0-0 and then backed FT 0-0 as hedge bet the same amount then You cant sell it out after a goal...so I dont understand what hedge bet that is what moves from 8 to 11. But anyway how can I get this spreadsheet of Yours?

Lay ht 0:0 and bet CS 0:0 doesn't work. I showed you why.

Redding out. Assume you have a bet on one market that wins making you £100. On another market you have a hedge bet, this time £100 at 5.4. When the goal is scored the odds go to 20 so you lay £27 at 20 so that you're now losing £73 on that market but you've made £100 on the first bet.

There are other things that have to be done if the first bet doesn't win.

1. I was just showing you the sort of the early examples everyone was playing with when this idea was first raised and why there's unlikely to be a three bet solution.
2. I don't encourage betting. My father left the family in poverty.
3. This problem requires a high level of maths. Linear, quadratic and some other equations I don't think have a name. These feed into an overround calculator. This feeds into a decision tree.
4. The spreadsheet would require a manual. It's not a 'type in a few numbers and win a fortune' effort but a piece of analysis.
5. You can make a small return but it requires some effort in play.

I shouldn't really have made the comment about the spreadsheet. I'm confident in it, but I wouldn't want others to risk their livelihoods.

I assume that there are others who like the puzzle element of this problem and are working on it themselves.

If it was a genuine puzzle, it would indeed be fun trying to solve it, but there is no Holy Grail - possible a holey one. It's like trying to form a rectangle using three straight lines. Do people really believe that there is an inefficiency in the highly liquid football markets that no one else has yet discovered?

why do You think no one else has discovered it? I think if there is HG then Slicer is not only one who knows it. It is a well kept secret I believe.

Whelk I see now but is the bet number 1 in Your system still lay HT 0-0 ?

There is almost certainly not a slicer style holy grail.

Whatever the relative efficiency of the markets, there are odds changes which allows for various kinds of investment behaviour. The lines aren't actually straight and you have to provide the fourth one yourself.

Is it 0:0 HT?

You're looking for an easy answer. If there was an easy answer then it would be easy to find.

thats it...i cant wait any longer for the great dr slicer to post on here......im going to my local cop shop to report him missing.
anyone know who he looks like?

There are only so many possible combinations of bets to test. It is interesting to do these, as you realise how well various markets dovetail with each other. Look closer and you'll see how it all works like clockwork. The minutes tick away and the prices adjust.

That's why there is unlikely to be a slicer holy grail.

Every market is different so there is more than just combinations of bets.

If you start by saying, "the first bet is to lay HT 0:0," then you've fallen into a trap.

tier: why do You think no one else has discovered it? I think if there is HG then Slicer is not only one who knows it. It is a well kept secret I believe.

There can be no Holy Grail because the prices available on an exchange are not fixed. A simple illustration is to imagine that you could lay the HT 0-0 at 2.0, and back the 0-0 FT at 20.0 - at half-time the bet is either in the bag, or if there is still no score, you lay the FT 0-0 at 4.0 to lock in a profit (silly prices, but they are to illustrate the point).

Such a Holy Grail would not be 'discovered' by just one person. Thousands of people are active in these markets, including some pretty smart people, and any such inefficiency would be obvious to many, and once it is observed, the prices will adjust so that the strategy is no longer profitable. AS REM above says, related markets move together very efficiently. They have to - any inefficiencies are immediately identified, the value is taken and the prices adjust.

Slicer's claims that there is a Holy Grail are clearly nonsense. The price required for bet three may simply not be available. This isn't a casino where the prices are fixed. And ask yourselves this: If Slicer really was a Fields Medal winner and had found a Holy Grail, would someone that brilliant then tease on a public forum of his discovery and give clues which can only result in his advantage vanishing? Slicer may love the attention and admittedly can be mildly entertaining, but there is no Holy Grail.

I agree that the simplistic answer is very unlikely.

I'm suggesting that there are some complex solutions, although they aren't very profitable for the amount of effort involved.

ITCANBEDONE, kmabet discovered ( regarding slicer's posts ) and also I know how can be done...for all of you who think can't be done just keep thinking that way...Slicer maybe is not the smartest guy in the world but he discovered a tiny line which i believe no one saw before...regards to kmabet ( Sliced ) and best wishes to Slicer...

p.s. Slicer, u are the most intelligent person i ever meet on all forums, stay in good health and take care ;)

yep thats all true cpfc4me but I think we must consider one BUT also. And this is that there is very easy to make an overround book if You take 0-0 odds maybe 1-0 and 0-1 at KO and all others at HT. now that green what You get must be placed as a lay at KO to HT 0-0 and combined with ft 0-0 back. this might be possible....

And when doing it like this then none of this applies what You have said because it will not matter. Markets are formed before KO. So when You get some prices at KO then afterwards when there is no goal You can be pretty sure where the prices will be at HT because all of that what You said makes it sure they will be. Now that guarantees You that You get certain odds for bet 3. The thing is that certain odds must be taken before KO also (selection of game)

What You said about value. You are right at KO there is value and You can take it also if You know what it is (again selection of game) and by HT the value is lost but for You the price is now exactly where You expect it to be...

hope You understand what I mean.... I am not a true believer myself anymore cause I have tryed so many variations of it and it always seems that it almost works and You need so little more....But I still believe a little :P

One more think...maybe in a year or 3-4, when this bet will be discovered and add to public, YOU here, and all other members on these forums, ukbetting tips, pounter, lay the odds...and HERE too, u need to give a BIG credit and say to yourself that YOU were fouls all those years...coz, often there is a insulting on Slicer and his ego...he have HOLY GRAIL from the start, and his ego was normal, all the time...

ikim; 18 Jul 10 21:05

"Slicer maybe is not the smartest guy in the world..."

"p.s. Slicer, u are the most intelligent person i ever meet on all forums"

Confusion reigns.

The bottom line is that it's impossible to 'discover' something that is based on variables. This is nothing like finding a proof for a mathematical theorem where everything remains constant. This is an exchange, and the prices required to make any system work are only available if someone is offering them, and if someone is offering prices that are value (to a backer), they will soon stop offering those prices.

Don't be too accepting of claims by people that they have 'discovered' a Holy Grail, whether they are "not the smartest guy in the world" or "are the most intelligent person"...

tier: the idea of a Holy Grail fails when you write "You can be pretty sure where the prices will be at HT" - "pretty sure" isn't a Holy Grail - it's a gamble.

yep of course HG fails due to that and also due to the fact it is inplay betting. But I think it is (if it does exist) with very high precent winning ratio.

And this value thing is also tricky I would say. Because these odds might be value only to the one who knows things. As I have said earlier how do You define value? If sth is at X odds at KO and everyone thinks it is value. Now we come to 0-0 at HT and these odds have moved to its "true" price...Who says it is now true price? It can just as easily be the opposite that it didnt have value at KO but now has value....

But what is certain is that arbers keep the markets efficient right? So take all the pre KO markets and You can calculate prices at HT. I did so and it works quite nicely. FT 0-0 price at HT is very predictable and calculatable and since it is the opposite of everything other scorelines and all markets are related anyway due to arbers therefore are all the odds calculatable what they would be at HT IF IT IS 0-0 THEN. Now if there is a goal then it is different because then it depends which team scored first and at what minute and so on....but according to HG this does not matter anymore because bet1 wins.

As to ikim I dont believe that kmabet (Sliced!!!) found Slicers bet. He took his information from uk betting tips and confused the same redding out one market sentence with Slicer quotes. But actually it was said by whelk back in 2008 regarding to hes system which he briefly just talked here also. But of course I didnt get the chance to ask Slicer about red market because he disappeared before that. But if bet1 is lay 0-0 HT and bet 2 back 0-0 FT and bet 3 is placed at HT and thats it then I cant see any opportunity of redding sth out it is just impossible because you cant red HT lay due to the fact it loses by HT and You cant red out FT back also because by HT it has either all green or it has lost and is not in play anymore....

First of all, reply to cpfc4me:

--Smartest and intelligent imo is not the same, that's the reason why you are snuffing regarding HIS bet...

Reply to tier:

--You said "i can't see any opportunity"...again same as for cpfc4me...that's the reason why you are snuffing regarding HIS bet...

And tier, i often see u have doubt regarding HG...but man, u are on every forum on slicer's tread :)

p.s. don't stop believe it...tooks me 8 months x 10 hurs a day to find it what Dr. Slicer did...:)

Redding out is just a way of minimising your hedge bet(s) losses if the first bet(s) win.

The point about devising systems like this is that they have to be dynamic to account for the fact that markets can be stubborn or can change when the state of play changes. You will have observed that there are certain times during a game that the market may behave differently because people are consolidating, waiting for a set piece to unfold, etc.

You need an underlying mathematical model and you can only create this by observation. cpfc4me is correct in observing that the actuality will often differ from the model.

In play, your spreadsheet has to account for market changes.

I think too many people are looking for a single easy solution. Bet one, bet two as a hedge and bet three if bet one loses/wins is an attractive answer but you have been shown by me and others that it can't work in that simple way.

So you have to do the maths and, take it from me, they will be hard if you haven't a background in numbers.

The other thing is that you have to sit watching a match unfolding on a screen. You need something else to do if you're not to go mad.

@ ikim

Hi Kmabet

gotcha (again)

@ FunBob...if go trough my lines here, u can see that English is not my native, so i'm not kmabet, if u want to say that...
After all, my last post here...

The price for the FT 0-0 at HT is easily derived from the price for FT 0-0 and HT 0-0 at KO - its obvious that it is equal to the quotient of the former devided by latter.Nothing new.If,however, there is say a red card for a key defender or a goalkeeper got injured and replaced with a non-fit second goalkeeper during first half that would alter the price for sure.But how the price for 0-0 changes has nothing to do with the fact that there can not be a holly grail as Slicer describes it,nor as many of the wannabes would like.Ikim you spend 8 months of ur life to figure it out?
Man it takes no more than a week even for a non-math guy like me to figure it is bs.
The only way you can achieve a "holly grail" if one can call it that way is to constantly make maximum accurate (more accurate than bookies or the other punters on exchange)estimation of the probability for a event hence  max. accurate estimation of the prices and when there is a value to bet on it using appropriate mm(usualy Kelly criterion).In-play betting offers good possibilities for it.
But to hope to lock on a risk free profit using a mechanical system assuming there is a discrepancy between prices in a cross market basis is nothing more than a foolish dream.Anyone who doesn't understands this and did not make an effort to clear(it is quite  simple calculations), this to himself is far far away from reality.

t

I think chat just read enough to assume that it has something to do with HT 0-0 and CS 0-0 which, as a stand alone solution, clearly can't work. What we have is an interesting mathematical problem with a number of solutions and the ability for continued refinement.

I read more than enough on this - here and elsewhere,always find it amusing.
The matter of fact is that if one want to obtain an edge over the market he must take value prices.And if one can detect,estimate and take value prices he dont need a predetermined strategy whatsoever.He only needs to continue betting on value.
But value is:
1. Subjective and hard to determine
2. Almost non-existing at BF or existing for very limited time and in very limited percentage (its rare to find and explore more than 2,3% of value) at BF
So claims for 8%/12% EXTRACTED with a secret RISC-FREE method is nonsense.
And about your thoughts on making profit with more complex trading approach - it does not matter how sophisticated approach that is.
You NEED to get value bets in order to profit.And if you are so good in finding those bets you dont need to trade (cover) it(because you will take non-value bets doing it hence decreasing profits).

'Value' is nonsense word much beloved of mug punters and bookies.

I think we've already established that the method slicer described is not a likely answer.

How can you say value is nonsense. Three people can bet the same selections and one can lose, one break even and one win due to the prices taken on those selections! If you're laying genuine even money shots at 5-4 you'll lose over time whereas if your backing evens shots at 5-4 you'll win.
Slicer was taking everyone for a ride with his holy grail and to be fair he got a hell of a lot of mileage out of it but to suggest it doesn't matter what price you get because 'a winner is a winner' is ridiculous.

Only 2 replies in 18 months ? You should post alot more "chat".

I've heard the 'value' word so often. I used to work for a bookie at White City and Wembley years ago and heard the punter's patter. I worked for Sam and Terry in their shops and the patter was the same. "OK, it lost, but I had 11 to 4."

If you have 'information'- and that's often a nonsense word too - then maybe price is not that critical, but there's not one in a thousand punters who have the ability to work out 'value', although you rarely meet one who admits they can't. Punters are clever when they win and victims when they lose.

Slicer's grail is a bit of fun but it posed a question that was worth investigating and revealed some interesting mathematical facts about the markets. What I can tell you for certain is that the simplistic answer based around 3 bets that everyone is looking for can't work ... although there's an interesting logic that has to be understood which points you to other answers.

I just enjoy playing with the numbers. I think people misunderstand what is needed. You have to be able to write a spreadsheet program (or work it out some other way).

Finding hard to see any risk free approach.
maybe value or percentages of wins better than losses.
Following system seems to present value in long run where heavy favorites are involved.
back AUQ/lay over 3.5 (treat as arb), put some on 3-1.
Scores such as 1-3,2-2,2-3 & 3-3 are unlikely percentages.
such a system produces approx 10% return.
can anyone prove why this would not work in long run

jepfrog Joined: 15 Jun 08
Replies: 20 28 Jul 10 20:50   


Finding hard to see any risk free approach.
maybe value or percentages of wins better than losses.
Following system seems to present value in long run where heavy favorites are involved.
back AUQ/lay over 3.5 (treat as arb), put some on 3-1.
Scores such as 1-3,2-2,2-3 & 3-3 are unlikely percentages.
such a system produces approx 10% return.
can anyone prove why this would not work in long run 


Taking Liverpool game into consideration tomorrow:

Back Any UNQ (FT Market) £100 @ 5.5 (+£427.50) (-£100)
Lay Under 3.5 Goals £157.49 @ 3.4 (+£149.59) (-£377.98)

This first 'arb' would give you a profit of £49.52.

You would then need to cover all possible permutations (scorelines you have mentioned above), so,

1-3 17.5 £31.08
2-2 40 £13.60
2-3 48 £11.33
3-3 190 £2.86
3-1 190 £2.86
3-2 130 £4.18

Dutching all of the above possible scorelines with the potential profit that you may make (£49.52) will never match your potential losses as to break even you would need to dutch bet £65.91 minimum to break even……..

There may be more value available pre-ko as i assume the 3-2, 3-3 and 3-1 may rise in price but the markets are to efficient to guarantee any risk-free approaches.

Even ignoring the current prices available for the above scores still would not make you a profit....

You would then need to cover all possible permutations (scorelines you have mentioned above), so,

1-3 17.5 £31.08
2-2 40 £13.60
2-3 48 £11.33
3-3 190 £2.86
3-1 190 £2.86
3-2 130 £4.18

Dutching all of the above possible scorelines with the potential profit that you may make (£49.52) will never match your potential losses as to break even you would need to dutch bet £65.91 minimum to break even……..


I know,
but i would only cover 3-1 to big favourite,maybe 2-2.
its not risk free.

Oh sorry jepfrog, i mis-read it!.

It could gain you a nice steady profit but could also be risky if you hit a bad scoreline (3-1, 3-2 etc) which im sure may happen on a few occasions!

I cover 3-1, so 8-10% gain, 3-2 will happen 1 in 25 to fav. so should gain in long term

How do you work it out to be 8-10% gain when your liability is over £500 and your profit would be about £18....

I make it more like a 3.5% profit....

did ajax game,only made 2%, had to cover 2-2  after poak levelled,if covered pre game, would of been 3-4%.
yesterday game 8%.
so early days,small stakes.

Great stuff, all the best, it seems a good idea, you always have the chance during the game to play with some of your potential profit on the scorelines such as 2-2 etc.

All the best and small %age bank increases can lead to an extremely big bank come the end of the year!!

thanks,
we shall see.
anymore feedback,constructive from anybody,much appreciated.

first sorry for my "bad" english.
seems a good idea, but for example yesterdays game: you back 2:2 after paok equalised. what would you have done if ajax made it 2:1. Then you have to back 3:1, what should result in overall losses.

i back 2-2 to cover losses only,3-1 was covered pregame.
back auq/lay over 3.5 gives about 15% profit, enough to cover 3-1 and maybe 2-2 if you want.

jepfrog     28 Jul 10 21:31 
You would then need to cover all possible permutations (scorelines you have mentioned above), so,

1-3 17.5 £31.08
2-2 40 £13.60
2-3 48 £11.33
3-3 190 £2.86
3-1 190 £2.86
3-2 130 £4.18

Dutching all of the above possible scorelines with the potential profit that you may make (£49.52) will never match your potential losses as to break even you would need to dutch bet £65.91 minimum to break even……..


I know,
but i would only cover 3-1 to big favourite,maybe 2-2.
its not risk free.

In the above scenario, would it not be just as easy to dutch lay the scores listed minus 1-3 ?

Would return approx 6.5%.
Plus theres less commish as you're only paying it on profit of whole event.

How are things going Jepfrog??

Just a bit of advice to anyone that might be, or in the future, be planning to try and crack the holy grail, profits have been reduced using slicers method. I only know this because I thought I had cracked it using odds from slicers known grail games, only to find it doesn't work now, which when I asked slicer he also confirmed this, shame I'm about 2 years too late :/

Nearly 12 years on and counting. 

One other consideration is, what if..You get your Bet 1 & Bet 2 bets on pre-off, the score is 0-0 @ HT, as you're about to place/adjust the "HG 3rd Bet" then betfair crashes and no-one can access the 2nd half market. You can only hope the FT 0-0.

The only way I feel anyone can proceed with this approach is to accept a green-up on the FT 0-0 C/S market if the HT score is 0-0 (the adjustment). The loss overall is equivalent to the projected profit made on the combined Bet 1 & Bet 2 pre-off combination bets. There is no Bet 3 is this scenario.

Focus more on game selection where the markets are liquid enough so a green-up can be performed. Protect your bank at all times.

.