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General Betting
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09 Jun 10
11:44
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Date Joined:
25 Jun 08
Someone may have the data and be willing to share it.
Looking at past records and using BFSP as a "fair price" gauge - so its supposed to represent the market's view of the horse's chance overall.
However it seems to me looking at the past data that the PPWAP (Weighted average price of all bets placed pre-off) is much better qualified to do this job - after all the BFSP market is in most cases a few hundred quid if that, whereas this considers all bets struck on the beast pre-off.
There's a considerable difference in a lot of cases. I don't expect the markets to be efficient (i.e. get it right every time) but I would like to think that when looking at 1000+ cases, the PPWAP (or BFSP) could give me a loose-efficient view of the rough chances of a horse.
TIA for any constructive comments
Looking at past records and using BFSP as a "fair price" gauge - so its supposed to represent the market's view of the horse's chance overall.
However it seems to me looking at the past data that the PPWAP (Weighted average price of all bets placed pre-off) is much better qualified to do this job - after all the BFSP market is in most cases a few hundred quid if that, whereas this considers all bets struck on the beast pre-off.
There's a considerable difference in a lot of cases. I don't expect the markets to be efficient (i.e. get it right every time) but I would like to think that when looking at 1000+ cases, the PPWAP (or BFSP) could give me a loose-efficient view of the rough chances of a horse.
TIA for any constructive comments
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