"Dodge a Bullet" thread!

Bet 1 - Bank 1: 100$
Tennis: Isner v Berdych -- Berdych to win @ 1,5

Bet 1 - Bank 2: 100$
Tennis: Amanmuradova v Scheepers -- Amanmuradova  to win @ 1,75

Bet 1 - Bank 1: 100$
Tennis: Isner v Berdych -- Berdych to win @ 1,5 -WON- [:D]

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Bet 2 - Bank 1: 150$
Football: Ireland - Algeria -- Ireland to win @ 1,66

ALGERIA are in World Cup ......and ROI ain't!


They are no mugs.......and suspect ROI will struggle to beat them ...but GL GE.


Some of their results indicate they are no mugs -

20-06-2009 WC Qualifyin… W Zambia 0 - 2 Algeria View events More info
12-08-2009 Friendly W Algeria 1 - 0 Uruguay  More info
06-09-2009 WC Qualifyin… W Algeria 1 - 0 Zambia View events More info
11-10-2009 WC Qualifyin… W Algeria 3 - 1 Rwanda View events More info
14-11-2009 WC Qualifyin… L Egypt 2 - 0 Algeria View events More info
18-11-2009 WC Qualifyin… W Algeria 1 - 0 Egypt View events More info
11-01-2010 Africa Cup o… L Malawi 3 - 0 Algeria View events More info
14-01-2010 Africa Cup o… W Mali 0 - 1 Algeria View events More info
18-01-2010 Africa Cup o… D Angola 0 - 0 Algeria  More info
24-01-2010 Africa Cup o… W Côte d'Ivoire E2 - 3E Algeria View events

WD on bet ...but 100% bank bet ( or 50%) on odds on bet in friendly is a dodgy approach to betting.......

1st goal was offside ....and ROI were flattered 1st half with a lead.

ALGERIA were bad in the air....ROI won almost every challenge in mddle of park....and never created much.....looks like their coach is trying to lull ENGLAND into sense of false security.....


GL with bets

Bet 1 - Bank 2: 100$
Tennis: Amanmuradova v Scheepers -- Amanmuradova  to win @ 1,75 - LOST-

Bet 2 - Bank 1: 150$
Football: Ireland - Algeria -- Ireland to win @ 1,66 -WON-

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Splitting Bank 1 to two banks:
Bank 1: 120$
Bank 2: 120$

Yeah, ofcourse it's a dangerous way of betting! It's just for entairtenment every few months or so!

And I believe that soccer game was great value. Ireland isn't so bad, they deserved to get in World Cup and had a great game against Paraguay. Algeria isn't so stable and had some players missing too.

Bet 2 - Bank 2: 120$
Football: Nautico vs America -- Nautico to win @ 1,48

Bet 3 - Bank 1: 120$
Football : Paraná vs Vila Nova -- Paraná to win @ 1,27

Why level staking on the two bets....surely one bet is better than the other? Or is it?

Ofcourse the chances of getting the 1,27 bet right are higher, but there is still a possibility for it to fail and I don't want this run to finish so early!

Just testing whether you have considered evaluating the "true odds" ( a subjective view) for each match and betting according to where the more VALUE is etc......

Generally LEVEL STAKES betting is an inefficient way to bet IMO....and as you are using fairly large amounts to BACK .


At the odds you are backing at you are very likely to be wiped out eventually anyway......may take about 20 bets....BUT GL anyway....

Generally LEVEL STAKES betting is an inefficient way to bet IMO....and as you are using fairly large amounts to BACK, then would have thought would be worth your while to attempt that?

GL

Generally LEVEL STAKES betting is an inefficient way to bet IMO...

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why do you say that dfc and what do you think is better?

If say you have an 11s BFSP horse which is really a 4s BFSP horse and you say stake £100 to win on it......and it wins.....the EXTRA VALUE on that horse is say 7 points, keeping it "simple".

If you have a 5s BF SP horse that is really an 4s BF money bet, the EXTRA value is 1 point......


So STAKING £100 on each bet gives £1,000 profit on first one...and £400 profit.

Now when you have an "edge"........should you STAKE the same amount on both horses? Is it not a wee bit "crazy"?

Of course if you are purely "guessing".......then LEVEL STAKING makes some sense.......
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Both horses have same REAL CHANCE to win...4sBF odds......but one gives 6 EXTRA POINTS in value............is it efficient to bet LEVEL STAKES on both horses?

There is only 1 answer......

mmm - been thinking similar thoughts myself.

time to rejig the rules on the old baseball system, I think.

cheers.

DFC, the think you are talking about works very well in normal stakes betting.
6 value bet would be 7-10/10 bet size
1 value bet would be 1-5/10 bet size
No bet should surprass 5% of your total bank

With some right value bet choices, this is the way to make some money long-term! :)

But as this a side-bank for fun/dangerous betting...
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Bet 4 - Bank 1: 152$
Football: Slovakia-Cameroon -- Under 2,5 @ 1,78

Bet 4 - Bank 1: 152$
Football: Slovakia-Cameroon -- Under 2,5 @ 1,78 -WON-

Bank 2: Retired!

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Bet 5 - Bank 1: 270$
Football: USA - Turkey -- Over 1,5 @ 1,3

Bet 5 - Bank 1: 270$
Football: USA - Turkey -- Over 1,5 @ 1,3 -WON-

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Ba
Bet 6 - Bank 1: 350$
Football: England - Japan -- England to win @ 1,27

Bet 6 - Bank 1: 350$
Football: England - Japan -- England to win @ 1,27 -WON-

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Bet 7 - Bank 1: 444$
Football: Mexico - Gambia -- Mexico to win @ 1,43

Bet 7 - Bank 1: 444$
Football: Mexico - Gambia -- Mexico to win @ 1,43 -WON-

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Bet 8 - Bank 1: 634$
Chile - Northern Ireland -- Chile to win @ 1,35

By the way, this game is going to be a main bank bet for me too.

Chile (-1,5 AH) - 7/10 medium/high stakes

Chile, having home advantage, is playing with a strong squad, while N.Ireland is bringing a weak, inexperienced team overseas for the game. It should be an easy win for them!

Bet 8 - Bank 1: 634$
Chile - Northern Ireland -- Chile to win @ 1,35 -WON-

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Starting bank: 200$  (May 28)

Running Bank: 855$   (May 31)

Bet 9 - Bank 1: 855$
Tennis: Serena vs PEER -- Serena to win @ 1,2

Bet 9 - Bank 1: 855$
Tennis: Serena vs PEER -- Serena to win @ 1,2 -WON-

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Starting bank: 200$ (May 28)
Running Bank: 1025$ (May 31)


That's a lot of money... I'm stopping here! Was fun making making the bank 5 times larger in 3 days! Cheers!