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trader2010
19 May 10 17:45
Joined:
Date Joined: 07 May 10
| Topic/replies: 793 | Blogger: trader2010's blog
How much has everyone won/lost since they started on Betfair?

I might as well get the ball rolling. I'm not sure of my exact P&L figure but I reckon I've lost roughly 60k. I started on Betfair 6 years ago and thought it was the holy grail, mostly played the horses and have had many good runs and unfortunately even more bad runs. I think the time has come to give the game up as tbh I lack the skill neccessary to be successful and I don't know how I could possibly turn things around from this position. I'm 24 years old and I know that if I continue on this path it could lead to serious difficulties in the future. However, it's tough to move on from something that has consumed so much of my time and energy and has cost me so dearly financially. What makes it so difficult to move on is the knowledge that it's possible, with the right skills, to be successful on Betfair. During my period on Betfair, I spent 4 years of my life gaining a Mathematics & Finance degree. With the finance world in its current state, it's hard to envisage finding a job that can enable me to achieve the lifestlye I've always aspired to. I can't help thinking about what I could achieve if I could have spent the same amount of time learning this game from one of the minority of successful Betfair users.

I thought it would be interesting to pose this question to find out about some of the success and failure stories and how Betfair has changed people's lives for better or worse.

Sorry for the long winded post and good luck to those who continue to seek/live the Betfair dream. I have no doubt that for me that dream is dead.

Cheers,
RB
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Report viva el presidente! May 19, 2010 5:48 PM BST
possibly the bravest and most honest post in the history of betfair.

gl
Report lukeyboy May 19, 2010 5:54 PM BST
Trader, once in this game you can NEVER get out, as you say, it IS possible to win on here and that thought is what will keep you here

I'm a layer and lost the best part of £13k before i started to learn the game truely and started to make real profits

stick with it, you might just make the losses up? thats the gamble.............

good luck whichever you decide!
Report scarecrow May 19, 2010 5:57 PM BST
i would get out if i was you i am not trying to be clever but if you were losing money then it would be very hard for you to find an edge now as the game has moved on and is harder every year to make it pay in any worthwhile manner.
Report viva el presidente! May 19, 2010 5:59 PM BST
on the plus side, you do have an account that's worth a bit over 10K to someone out there...
Report buzzer May 19, 2010 6:03 PM BST
What was your previous forum name? I presume this one was set up to 'come clean' which is admirable but your previous name would cleanse you fully [;)].
I know i'll be shot down in flames for asking but what made you continue after losing so much and realising you didn't have an edge on the markets? Was it just a case of keep depositing to attempt to recoup losses? I wish you well in the future and remember you're young and in a better position than many, you can include me in one of the many if anything else altered with this place and no viable alternative was out there. Good luck
Report Ron Pillock May 19, 2010 6:24 PM BST
At 24 you've got plenty of time on your side.  Unless you are making good consistant money people your age would be better off getting some experince in the real world of work, you can always come back here in 20 years time as an embittered employee looking for a way out of the ratrace.  For some of us older ones there are fewer choices, we're in it for life.
Report trader2010 May 19, 2010 6:28 PM BST
Buzzer,

I don't have any previous forum usernames. I registered a username for the forum for the first time recently and a joining date of 10th May 2010 now comes up, even though my Betfair account was set up long before that. As regards why I continued when losing, each time I deposited a new bank to play with I believed that I could turn things around, that I had learned from my mistakes and that this time would be different.

Cheers,
RB
Report sticky butt May 19, 2010 6:42 PM BST
is it still possible to win depite the premium charge, from what i see i have 780 of the £1000 allowance left before i pay,any advice would be appreciated
Report viva el presidente! May 19, 2010 6:45 PM BST
sticky - find a system with a very small edge that scales.
Report sticky butt May 19, 2010 6:56 PM BST
thanks for the advice viva but the only system i have now is the 1 i have now on many markets(which is not an exact science)  apart from staking no more than 3% of my bank
Report Escapee May 19, 2010 7:03 PM BST
trader2010

I suspect that your whole approach to gambling is wrong.


OK, so thats a bold and very assumptive statement I've made but losing £60k over a period of years make it a high probability of being correct.


Most people approach and view gambling within the context the immediate bet and possibly extending to the last week or two's activity.


Thats like trying to win a war from the battle front, i.e. wrong wrong wrong!

A sensible general manages and utilises resources, applying some to battle some to research etc etc.

A soldier wants to win the battle, a general wants to win the war.

To win at gambling you have look at the bigger picture.

stop looking for winning bets and start looking for winning strategies
Report viva el presidente! May 19, 2010 7:04 PM BST
find another one and run it in parallel.

once you're in the bizarre PC netherworld, systems that only break even (or even make a very small loss) are actually worth it, because of the commission they generate.

also, look for arbs. again, even if an arb only breaks even after commission (or very slightly loses) it is still worth it. the only thing is, you have to be 100% certain it is a genuine, locked down watertight arb because of the percentages of bank that tend to be involved.

unfortunately, both these things are skewed against the small player. they're both much easier to do if you're on 2% than 4.x%. but since when were BF on the side of the little guy?
Report getintheir May 19, 2010 10:12 PM BST
see you tomorrow ..rest up and go again ..fresh start tomorrow.  OH YEAH.
Report RockMonkey May 19, 2010 10:28 PM BST
Starting so young makes it much more difficult to be successful on here. Unlikely to have as sound a judgement due to simple lack of experience. Try again when ur 30 + & u will probably make a much better go of it.
Report casemoney May 19, 2010 10:49 PM BST
no one on this forum bets .
Report pulio May 19, 2010 11:14 PM BST
Its a tough game alright. It is a lonely game and I'm sure everyone here has hit a low point in their personal venture in the betfair world. I know I have hit many, and it's been a long road.

It's important to be realistic with yourself at all times. Can I make this pay long term? Notice that I said LONG TERM. i.e, in one year, will I be in profit from playing like this? Really honestly answer the question.

If you cannot answer yes to that question, give up.

If you can, then start with a very small bank and prove to yourself you can do it before you jump in with both feet.

I think you definitely need a break, then if you want to come back you need to work out a good staking plan, followed by ensuring that you definitely have an edge.

Again, it's a brave decision to quit and many on here should quit but aren't man enough to do so because they have put so much into this game.

At 24, with a degree, you have plenty of opportunities. For example..go do a TEFL course and go off to the caribbean teaching English. What a life.

Good luck.
Report Lusitano71 May 19, 2010 11:25 PM BST
only started here when i was 35 and already had the means to live without working, if the income i relied upon was exclusively from here i doubt i could've ever made a profit here, hope this helps

good luck
Report tobermory May 20, 2010 12:09 AM BST
I do know my exact Lifetime P+L on Betfair

Over 2 accounts........

Deposits: £7,029.98

Withdrawals: £6,408.87

Total Available: £377.58

P+L:  -£243.53

Not sure how far ahead i'd be but for commission .
Report wipemyshoes May 20, 2010 12:23 AM BST
sticky butt     19 May 10 18:42 
is it still possible to win depite the premium charge, from what i see i have 780 of the £1000 allowance left before i pay,any advice would be appreciated

how do i know when i will have to pay pc and is pc in addition to commission
thanks
Report DAVID HASSELHOFF May 20, 2010 12:26 AM BST
start off with £20 in your account and see if you can reach £ 1000. This takes real discipline ! i like to test myself with it sometimes did it a few months ago and i am now on 840.
It seems virtually impossible when you first start out, but you will know you are wasting your time playing with thousands if you cant do this
Report tobermory May 20, 2010 12:31 AM BST
be wasting more than time Happy
Report DAVID HASSELHOFF May 20, 2010 12:31 AM BST
I meant to say i personally did it 2 months ago and i am doing it again this month now up to 840, found i made it by laying good value odds ie 1.05's when they should be 1.10, and trading protecting my stake but trying not to give away the value (the tough bit, Australia v pakistan in the t20 helped and Boston at orlando in the basketball helped me
Report yazza101 May 20, 2010 12:34 AM BST
agree with RockMonkey, started way too young on here
Report jrcruz May 20, 2010 9:12 AM BST
Basketball: €6,506.72 | Ice Hockey: €17,144.44 | Soccer: €10,922.13 | Tennis: €56,868.50 | Volleyball: €362.69 | Tote: |  Total P&L:  €91,804.48 

 

Basketball Showing 1 - 10 of 10 markets

Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (€)
Basketball / Phoenix @ LA Lakers (Game 2) : Match Odds 20-May-10 03:05  20-May-10 05:38  0.61
Basketball / Phoenix @ LA Lakers (Game 1) : Match Odds 18-May-10 03:05  18-May-10 05:33  488.47
Basketball / Boston @ Orlando (Game 1) : Match Odds 16-May-10 21:30  17-May-10 00:28  540.25
Basketball / Cleveland @ Boston (Game 6) : Match Odds 14-May-10 02:05  14-May-10 04:54  -811.00
Basketball / LA Lakers @ Utah (Game 4) : Match Odds 11-May-10 04:35  11-May-10 07:17  4,048.46
Basketball / Cleveland @ Boston (Game 4) : Match Odds 09-May-10 21:30  10-May-10 00:29  1,058.93
Basketball / LA Lakers @ Utah (Game 3) : Match Odds 09-May-10 02:05  09-May-10 04:56  833.00
Basketball / Cleveland @ Boston (Game 3) : Match Odds 08-May-10 01:05  08-May-10 03:42  528.58
Basketball / San Antonio @ Phoenix (Game 1) : Match Odds 04-May-10 04:35  04-May-10 07:39  -908.00
Basketball / Utah @ LA Lakers (Game 1) : Match Odds 02-May-10 21:30  03-May-10 00:11  727.42
Report trader2010 May 20, 2010 10:45 AM BST
Thanks to everybody for the replies so far, would have to agree with the general consensus that I started too young on here. I think I've matured a lot since I first started and I'm confident that with proper guidance I could be successful at this game. Unfortunately, there probably are't many successful Betfair users who would be willing to share their winning strategies with me!

Jrcruz, well done those are incredible results, yours is one of the success stories that make it so difficult to walk away from the game. May I ask you over what time period these profits were achieved and did you experience a period of losses before you became successful?

Cheers,
RB
Report jrcruz May 20, 2010 12:12 PM BST
Results are 2010 only, had 2 bad years betting on everthing etc, then in 2007 saw the light and started to make money...
Report Treble_Underscore May 20, 2010 12:47 PM BST
Wouldn't push it and let anyone talk you into continuing.

6 years is long enough to train for pretty much anything. You are obviously smart enough to be doing a decent degree, and smart enough to consider walking away. You maybe just have the wrong mindset to make gambling pay for you.

GL in the future.
Report EverybodydsAwinner May 20, 2010 12:58 PM BST
how did you afford to lose 60k while going to university and presumably not working since you were busy either gambling or studying?
Report Glengarry Glen Ross May 20, 2010 9:03 PM BST
trader2010     19 May 10 17:45 
How much has everyone won/lost since they started on Betfair?

I might as well get the ball rolling. I'm not sure of my exact P&L figure but I reckon I've lost roughly 60k. I started on Betfair 6 years ago and thought it was the holy grail, mostly played the horses and have had many good runs and unfortunately even more bad runs. I think the time has come to give the game up as tbh I lack the skill neccessary to be successful and I don't know how I could possibly turn things around from this position. I'm 24 years old and I know that if I continue on this path it could lead to serious difficulties in the future. However, it's tough to move on from something that has consumed so much of my time and energy and has cost me so dearly financially. What makes it so difficult to move on is the knowledge that it's possible, with the right skills, to be successful on Betfair. During my period on Betfair, I spent 4 years of my life gaining a Mathematics & Finance degree. With the finance world in its current state, it's hard to envisage finding a job that can enable me to achieve the lifestlye I've always aspired to. I can't help thinking about what I could achieve if I could have spent the same amount of time learning this game from one of the minority of successful Betfair users.

I thought it would be interesting to pose this question to find out about some of the success and failure stories and how Betfair has changed people's lives for better or worse.

Sorry for the long winded post and good luck to those who continue to seek/live the Betfair dream. I have no doubt that for me that dream is dead.

Cheers,
RB

Just get some discipline and wait until October
http://glen50garry.blogspot.com/
Report trader2010 May 20, 2010 10:12 PM BST
EverybodysAwinner, during my time in university I made good money working weekends and holidays and I also gave tutorial classes to junior students. In hindsight, it was probably impossible to give enough attention to my betting whilst also working and studying.

Jrcruz, I have been considering starting again and concentrating on markets other than horse racing and your results certainly illustrate how well one can do by taking this approach. I have a number of questions regarding your approach to these markets, perhaps you might find the time to drop me a line at exchangetrader@gmail.com to discuss further.

To all other posters, many thanks for your responses they are very much appreciated.

Cheers,
RB
Report trader2010 May 20, 2010 10:20 PM BST
Jrcruz, apologies my address is exchangebettor@gmail.com
Report Northbouy May 23, 2010 3:00 PM BST
You would have more chance trading rather than betting.
Report moles40 May 23, 2010 7:17 PM BST
Lusitano71     19 May 10 23:25 
only started here when i was 35 and already had the means to live without working, if the income i relied upon was exclusively from here i doubt i could've ever made a profit here, hope this helps

good luck

Which begs the question why did you bother coming on here in the first place.Confused
Report moles40 May 23, 2010 7:19 PM BST
, I have been considering starting again and concentrating on markets other than horse racing

Cheers,
RB

You've lost 60k and want to start again[:(]

Possibly I would be more inclined to join Gamcare if I was you[:(]
Report hiltonfish1 May 23, 2010 8:13 PM BST
find a method then stick to it
i only lay favs for £100 each bet then by back 10-20 ticks more,thats trading but am up thousands doing this
Report Coachbuster May 23, 2010 8:50 PM BST
Good replies so far,and all with very good advice .

I would say with most things when you stick with something long enough  you may become good at it ...but on here its a costly exercise to find out and you have lots of healthy competition from around this planet .
You seem a bright enough chap,i will say to you ... stick to what you know you are good at rather than try to become good at something you might not have the skills for AND cost you .
Report buzzer May 23, 2010 8:57 PM BST
hiltonfish1 Joined: 22 Jun 03
Replies: 516 23 May 10 20:13 
find a method then stick to it
i only lay favs for £100 each bet then by back 10-20 ticks more,thats trading but am up thousands doing this





Don't tell porkies hiltonfish1! You've had around a 100 challenge threads on here and all have gone t1ts up
Report pulio May 23, 2010 9:04 PM BST
if you do decide to give it another go, id advise you to take it easy with the amount of money you slap into your account. make sure you have a winning system before going for it
Report Coachbuster May 23, 2010 9:05 PM BST
p.s ..if you do continue , i would stick to one area  and become good at it ,rather than gamble all over the shop .

best of luck which ever way you choose
Report hiltonfish1 May 23, 2010 9:05 PM BST
lay kansas @ 2.36
small tip for u then
Report Crisp77 May 23, 2010 10:02 PM BST
Lost about £4k in eight years.

Can win big on here...but working hard in a skilled job is guaranteed money.
Report eggman May 23, 2010 10:24 PM BST
trader2010     20 May 10 22:12 
Jrcruz, I have been considering starting again and concentrating on markets other than horse racing and your results certainly illustrate how well one can do by taking this approach. I have a number of questions regarding your approach to these markets, perhaps you might find the time to drop me a line at exchangetrader@gmail.com to discuss further.

To all other posters, many thanks for your responses they are very much appreciated.

Cheers,
RB


From this I presume you mainly concentrated on horse racing?  Have you taken the time to really sit down and analyse where you were going wrong?  I feel that the 'this hasn't worked, I'm going to try this' approach to gambling/trading is often the wrong path.  It may be better for you to try the 'this hasn't worked, why hasn't it worked?' path.
Report CLYDEBANK29 May 23, 2010 10:37 PM BST
From an article about Alan Woods...a very successful gambler.  I picked it out because of the stories of Wally Sommons and Bob Moore.  Personally at 24 and 6 years of losing, I'd go for the hopefully good job and happy family path.

A founding partner in the Hong Kong venture was Bill Benter, the originator of computerised betting systems, who had devised a program at home that calculated a roulette ball's speed as it spins around and predicted which quadrant of the wheel the ball would fall in. Alan provided 60% of an initial US$150,000 bankroll and was in charge of selections through a 'favourites system', where the team bet on the horse judged most likely to win. They soon discovered they would win more if they bet only on overlays. Bill had a 30% stake and came up with the idea of building a computerised probability model. A third player, Wally Sommons, was in for 10% and did much of the early work compiling a database of past results.

For the first two years the team struggled, wiping out their $150,000 bankroll. Alan injected another $40,000 and they wiped that out too. Then another $20,000. It was enough for Wally to lose his nerve but Bill and Alan, who had by now evaporated more than half his total net worth, persevered. The computer model started winning in 1987 - US$100,000 for the season - the same year that the Alan-and-Bill alliance broke up. Among various differences, Bill wanted a greater say in determining the size of each bet while Alan wanted to keep his own firm hand on the bankroll. It was a bitter split. Almost immediately, Bill set about making his own computer model, one that Alan concedes would later become a more sophisticated and successful version of his own.
'He came back to Hong Kong for the ostensible reason of discussing our partnership … But his real reason was to hijack all my data, because otherwise he was going to be missing a year or two's worth of data, and to program a self-destruct thing into my software.' I almost fall off my chair. It sounds like something out of a Mission Impossible movie, but Alan recounts it all with a certain casualness. 'Bill wasn't a really malicious person. He did warn me about this, and gave me time to fix the problem.'

Alan's software did anything but self-destruct. In 1987-88 he won HK$3 million. The next season $7 million. Then 11. Then 19. One of the things that kept him motivated was his rivalry with his two peers - Bill Benter and a mysterious Australian called 'J'. In 1990 Bob Moore, the loudmouth New Zealander, betrayed Alan to go work for Bill. At the time, Alan and Bob had been sharing an apartment together. Later, to return the favour, Bob betrayed Bill, approaching Alan and offering to sell him back-data that Bill had paid Bob to supply. 'We're sitting in a Sydney restaurant, and I'm sure I tell him at least twice, Bob, it's not yours to sell.' Nevertheless, Bob does sell, and Alan buys. 'Years later,' says Alan, 'by which time he's threatening to kill me, I referred back to this episode - Bob's betrayal of Bill - and Bob shouts at me: ‘If you were a true friend, you wouldn't have allowed me to do it.''

Alan laughs and shakes his head at the strangeness of it. Bob killed himself in 1997, depressed and isolated, on a night when Alan was hosting one of his famous parties.
Report viva el presidente! May 24, 2010 5:49 PM BST
clydebank - you got a link for that article? would like to read the whole thing.
Report buzzer May 24, 2010 6:40 PM BST
http://www.pokerplayer.co.uk/sports-betting/horse-racing/137/the-life-hong-kong-betting-syndicates.html


it may not be exactly the same article but it's  about the syndicate
Report Hayden May 24, 2010 6:56 PM BST
Although i've been around since 2002 i'm nowhere near a betfarian , only play a minimal amount of my total volume on here and primarily only use for research and hedging bets , nothing personal against exchanges but the bets I make a living off are not mathematically available on here and fellow punters should always check the alternatives available and not place bets just because it's were your bank exists , after the Asian markets it's the ultimate market guide but that's were the inflexibility ends.


Good luck all.
Report viva el presidente! May 24, 2010 7:00 PM BST
cheers buzzer.
Report trader2010 May 24, 2010 7:51 PM BST
Once again, many thanks for all the advice. I have been thinking about exploring the world of trading, however I am aware of the high standard of competition in the markets today. It is a pretty daunting proposition to consider having a go at something which doubtlessly requires a huge amount of skill and knowledge of market dynamics to be successful.

I have a question for traders, do you trade on markets that you have identified to consistently produce predictable odds movement or do you use your judgement of how a particular event will develop (e.g. you think there will be an early goal in a football match so you lay under 1.5 goals) and trade on that basis.

Cheers,
RB
Report Richard LL May 25, 2010 1:04 AM BST
Are actually using any of your maths skills in your punting, ie modeling and analysing etc, or are you mainly just "punting"?
I can quite easily see how you or anyone else can lose that amount of money, best of luck for the future.
Report eightbo August 9, 2017 6:06 AM BST
This old thread was a great read. I'd really love to know how trader2010 has ended up spending his days.
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