How do you 'factor in' subjective ideas into odds-making?

Results in games he didn't play in i wouldn't consider myself , as the matches he will have been rested for will tend to be those they would expect to win easily anyway, while , unless injured, he will always start against Liverpool,Chelsea,Barcelona etc, the games they are more likely to lose or draw .

Personally if i made  United 1.74 for a match with Rooney in, and then heard he was out, i'd adjust to around 1.80-1.82 . That might not sound such a huge difference for such a great player ( and the market might go up a lot more) but the difference between those prices is  very significant; over a season maybe the difference between getting 85 pts and 76 ( though i haven't worked it out precisely) .

Shemnel , how are you pricing up ? Do you look at each match from scratch?  Or do you have ratings for each team which can then be converted into odds?  I prefer the latter as then you will at least be consistent.

So if i made United  1.74 , teams i rate superior would be shorter odds for the same fixture, inferior teams would be bigger.

On my ratings something like this....

1.62 Barcelona
1.70 Chelsea
1.74 United
1.84 Arsenal
2.02 Liverpool

Though my own ratings have lost the plot in the last season and a half, so that i am not betting on football til i have reviewd them , i think it is the best method.

The absence of individual players has very little influence on results. Worth having a look at, for instance ManU points haul in matches with Ronaldo present and when he was absent in season 2008/09. Perhaps worth looking at the same player at Madrid before he arrived and after. A top player is thought to be worth 2-3 points over a 38 match season, so in one match about 5% in one match, in your example 1;74 would be about 1.78 IMO. There is sometimes good value in opposing over reaction in these occurences.

If you are on the ball and react quickly you can make money laying Man U and trading out after the market has fully digested the move.  You don't have to calculate the price all you have to do is know what the original price is and anticipate the move.  Examples in the WC winners market  would be Messis 4 goals against Arsenal and Ballacks injury for Germany

I agree there is usually an overeaction Ken , which as Clydebank says can be exploited if you hear the news early , but from what i recall of the '2pt' stat it didn't take account of the strength of the opposition in the with/without sequences , so that matches against the very stongest teams made up a higher % of the 'with Ronaldo' statistics.

take a look at the Patrick Ewing effect

wot a bunch of losers get a life

Tober, it would probably be very difficult to factor in the strength of the opposition over a long period, but this view is not an isolated example, and I haven't seen any examples showing the opposite. What about Ronaldo at Madrid ? What about Alonso at the same club ? Perhaps it's worth considering where, say Liverpool would have finished in the Premier League without Torres and Gerrard, or would Arsenal have won the league if they hadn't lost Van Persie for half a season. A team is made up of 11 players with each out player representing just 10% of the team, and when a star is missing, he is usually replaced by a very able deputy. I believe it is better to ignore these absences if only because a lot of people over react to them. Just a view.

Ignoring the moves makes limited sense IMO. It might be your only option if you are generating a LOT of accurate figures, because its going to even out over a season. If you are employing Kelly staking however, its going to kill you because you are going to be betting bigger on teams that are drifting because they aren't playing their best team, to the extent that when they leave 8-9 first team players out, you are having a massive bet on them because of such a large drift.

Harnessing them on a trading basis is a much better idea.

Overreactions are commonplace - the difference between a star and the 3rd choice are not nothing, but they are not worth 20 - 30 ticks which sometimes happens. If you made liverpool 1.8 away somewhere, and the market is 1.8, then liverpool leave out Gerrard and Torres, and the price moves to 2.2, that for me would not make them a bet. If I made them 1.6 initially, and they were 1.8 and drifted to 2.2, then I'd still bet them (but hopefully get my timing right and get 2.2+ rather than 1.8).

However you make your books/price your games, if you gauge the market well, and get your timing right, you'll make money. In that case you could take clydebank's advice and lay liverpool when the move starts, with the intention of greening off and indeed backing liverpool when the market settles down. that way you could be on at any price, 2.7, 3.0, and backing at those prices when the market settles at 2.2, will make you big money over a season.

thanks for all your help, some interesting stuff

man united aren't playing mate, so how can they be 1.74 to win? or do you just mean in general they are 1.74 to win, like win an egg or spoon race, win the lottery etc.?

tis theoretical sir