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General Betting

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irchester
16 May 10 12:13
Joined:
Date Joined: 08 Dec 07
| Topic/replies: 750 | Blogger: irchester's blog
favourites in maiden races at haydock in profit every year from 2004 to 2009 down this year but only 3 qualifiers this year so far. 16.8% up and 45% strike rate so this is a system to follow i think.

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Replies: 12
By:
freddiewilliams
When: 16 May 10 15:54
im so excited
By:
top2rated
When: 16 May 10 19:11
irchester

Ignore freddiewilliams and races run on the straight course at Haydock.

    Bets        Wins        WinStrike        SP_PL        Places        PlaceStrike        ROI   
    80        49        61.25%        28.32        16        20.00%        35.40%   
By:
Lucky Sod
When: 19 May 10 21:19
Thursday May 20 2010
Haydock 17:05
Injured Jockeys Fund Maiden Stakes
£4500.00 added, 3yo plus, 1m 3f 200y, Class 5, £2914.00 penalty
12 runners
Going: Good to Firm
Surface: Turf


Acquainted 2nd in class 1 last time looks like another for the system although will be odds on fav

Last race
Weatherbys Bank Cheshire Oaks (for The Robert Sangster Memorial Cup) (fillies' Listed)
£40000 added, 3yo only, 1m 3f 79y, Class 1, £22708 penalty, 7 ran
Going: Good
Surface: Turf
2  ¾l Acquainted
By:
Lucky Sod
When: 21 May 10 22:01
2 more winners

yesterday

1st      6L            Acquainted       8-6        M Hills        B W Hills       3     
      tracked leader, led 3f out, came clear final 2f, very easily

today

Friday May 21 2010
Race Result Haydock 21:00 - Result
Get Racing Uk In Your Pub 0870 351 8834 Maiden Stakes
£5500 added, 3yo plus, 1m 2f 95y, Class 5, £3562 penalty, 12 ran
Going: Good to Firm
Surface: Turf
1      2            Cultivar       9-0        M Hills        B W Hills       3      10/11 f
      made virtually all, ridden and in control over 1f out, eased near finish opened 13/8 touched 7/4 £1400-£800 £975-£600 £650-£400 £600-£400 (x2) £550-£400 £500-£400
By:
top2rated
When: 22 May 10 07:17
Expanding on irchester's original idea there are several other Flat turf courses where it would have been worthwhile following favourites in non-handicap maiden races.

    Period        Bets         Wins        SP Points        Strike Rate   
    2010        33        18        2.58        54.55%   
    2009        133        66        7.46        49.62%   
    2008        135        74        24.02        54.81%   
    2007        137        64        4.03        46.72%   
    2006        138        70        10.27        50.72%   
    2005        135        68        12.78        50.37%   
    2004        153        82        23.14        53.59%   
    2003        140        81        27.02        57.86%   


P.S.

Don't be misled by the strike rate % as losing runs of up to eight were identified.
By:
top2rated
When: 22 May 10 07:31
These are the left handed/right handed courses that contributed to the above stats. No straight course races analysed. 

Bath 
Chester
Folkestone
Hamilton 
Haydock
Leicester
Musselburgh
Newcastle 
Redcar
Salisbury 
Sandown 
Warwick
Yarmouth
By:
Lucky Sod
When: 22 May 10 12:18
I like to see favourites that go down in grade in maidens,
eg class 1 aquainted going into class 5
and Cultivar   had four previous races that were all class 4, and this maiden was 5 plus another plus is if they were in the frame in its last race.
By:
top2rated
When: 22 May 10 12:41
To summarise the stats posted at 07:17 today.

    Bets        Wins        WinStrike        SP_PL   
    1004        523        52.09%        111.30   
By:
top2rated
When: 22 May 10 12:54
Class of race comparisons.....

    Running in (compared to last race)        Bets        Wins        WinStrike        SP_PL   
    Same class        504        274        54%        80.72   
    Down in class        342        185        54%        44.48   
    Down in class or same class        846        459        54%        125.20   
    Same or higher class        591        313        53%        75.81   
    Higher class        87        39        45%        -4.91   
By:
Lucky Sod
When: 22 May 10 13:16
cheers for all that info top2rated
By:
Lucky Sod
When: 22 May 10 13:21
next filter could be maiden favs that ran in non maiden races last time eg handicaps or listed
By:
irchester
When: 23 May 10 11:48
thanks for those excellent stats also been doing faves in maidens at warwick and windsor excluding 5 furlong races and all maiden races at chester and 2 year old only maiden race faves at newmarket. Sandown profitable but 3 of last 6 years before 2010 show a loss so im focussing on maiden faves that are in profit at least 4 of the last 6 completed years.

Hamilton and a few others good stats but lack of data a worry. Anything less than 100 qualifiers between 2004 and 2010 a worry and would also include too many qualifiers.
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