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if your intended market only has 2 outcomes, then if you do NOT have value on the outcome you looked into then surely you DO have value on it's opposite?
EVENT HAPPENING:
Yes = 1.68
No = 2.46
(just work with the odds, lol)
now if i calculate 'Yes' to be 1.86, ie no value no bet, then by default surely my 'No' does have value??
does this mean i will always have value on a 2 outcome market? this seems wrong and weird and i wonder where i am going wrong
cheers
EVENT HAPPENING:
Yes = 1.68
No = 2.46
(just work with the odds, lol)
now if i calculate 'Yes' to be 1.86, ie no value no bet, then by default surely my 'No' does have value??
does this mean i will always have value on a 2 outcome market? this seems wrong and weird and i wonder where i am going wrong
cheers
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Toss of a coin
Both are evens, no value on one nor the other
Toss of coin
4/5 on one 10/11 on the other - no value on either
I think your question assumes a 100% book
Both are evens, no value on one nor the other
Toss of coin
4/5 on one 10/11 on the other - no value on either
I think your question assumes a 100% book
Two things have to be taken into consideration, (a)how accurate your evaluation is and (b)commission. I only ever bet to figures and I don't bet unless I have at least 20% margin, that is, say a 1.60 (IMO) chance at at least 1.72+
which allows me room for error etc. GL.
which allows me room for error etc. GL.
In two outcome events, it would be rare to get a 20% margin on your side. In some ways I'm an impatient bettor if I've got my horns into something but have to back my judgement if I feel I have a bit of an edge.
Though as the above poster says if it isnt a 100% book theres no guarantee of any value on either side.
Though as the above poster says if it isnt a 100% book theres no guarantee of any value on either side.
When I say a 20% margin, I mean, say 2.20 about a 2.0 chance. Do you think that happens rarely ? It depends on the definition of 'rarely'.
In two outcome events, it would be rare to get a 20% margin on your side.
I'd disagree. It might require a lot of cancelled bets but it's definitely possible.
I'd disagree. It might require a lot of cancelled bets but it's definitely possible.
Markets you know well will be easier to find value in. So reckon there is value in all real markets (not your theorectical coin tosses)
Or conversely it is rare that a market has no value on any runners.
Or conversely it is rare that a market has no value on any runners.
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