What % of favourites get placed???

Clear favourites UK N. Hunt, Flat turf & All Weather (01 Jan 2003 to 09 May 2010)

Year	Bets	Wins	WinStrike	SP_PL	Places	PlaceStrike
2003	7318	2616	36%	-589.04	2011	27%
2004	7727	2504	32%	-620.15	2179	28%
2005	7623	2350	31%	-603.21	2288	30%
2006	8071	2744	34%	-344.42	2269	28%
2007	8038	2708	34%	-502.08	2340	29%
2008	8601	2870	33%	-673.49	2479	29%
2009	8812	2994	34%	-552.09	2489	28%
2010	2799	962	34%	-229.62	732	26%

I got these figures from horseracebase.com

and by colour of horse

Horse Colour	Bets	Wins	WinStrike	SP_PL	Places	PlaceStrike
Bay	40631	13624	34%	-2883.17	11546	28%
Bay/Brown	215	84	39%	-3.39	56	26%
Black	75	24	32%	-7.7	26	35%
Brown	2744	962	35%	-47.17	760	28%
Chestnut	12193	4002	33%	-896.72	3505	29%
Grey	3024	1013	33%	-265.73	858	28%
Grey/Roan	50	16	32%	-9.44	16	32%
Roan	57	23	40%	-0.78	20	35%

The recent changes to the forum have generally not been well received but the facility to display data in a table is most welcome.  So finally, here are the stats for clear favourites by race category. 

Race category	Bets	Wins	WinStrike	SP_PL	Places	PlaceStrike
Handicap	18172	4878	27%	-1392.36	5177	28%
Handicap Chase	4402	1218	28%	-382.91	1131	26%
Handicap Claimer	7	1	14%	-5.27	1	14%
Handicap Hunters Chase	5	3	60%	9	0	0%
Handicap Hurdle	3965	1057	27%	-438.72	1113	28%
Handicap Maiden	175	47	27%	-8.87	55	31%
Handicap Novices Chase	991	305	31%	-49.86	245	25%
Handicap Novices Hurdle	956	260	27%	-104.66	283	30%
Handicap Nursery	1149	330	29%	-68.07	309	27%
Handicap Nursery Seller	24	7	29%	3.73	8	33%
Handicap Seller	155	34	22%	-14.83	57	37%
Handicap Seller Chase	50	17	34%	15.75	12	24%
Handicap Seller Hurdle	434	87	20%	-83.19	140	32%
Non-Handicap	4492	1470	33%	-477.86	1264	28%
Non-Handicap Beginners Chase	918	425	46%	-26.21	227	25%
Non-Handicap Chase	273	114	42%	-24.19	55	20%
Non-Handicap Claimer	1774	658	37%	-76.65	523	29%
Non-Handicap Claimer Chase	12	1	8%	-9.9	2	17%
Non-Handicap Claimer Hurdle	165	54	33%	-23.46	58	35%
Non-Handicap Hunters Chase	599	235	39%	-32.96	153	26%
Non-Handicap Hurdle	279	115	41%	-37.59	85	30%
Non-Handicap Maiden	8379	3529	42%	-334.41	2590	31%
Non-Handicap Maiden Chase	103	41	40%	-10.53	28	27%
Non-Handicap Maiden Claimer	100	35	35%	20.27	27	27%
Non-Handicap Maiden Claimer Hurdle	4	0	0%	-4	3	75%
Non-Handicap Maiden Hunters Chase	52	21	40%	8.27	13	25%
Non-Handicap Maiden Hurdle	1169	464	40%	-87.79	386	33%
Non-Handicap Maiden NH Flat	282	90	32%	-51.1	80	28%
Non-Handicap Maiden Seller	5	2	40%	-0.08	0	0%
Non-Handicap NH Flat	1400	493	35%	-117.22	408	29%
Non-Handicap Novices	469	223	48%	-24.5	112	24%
Non-Handicap Novices Chase	1622	801	49%	-75.55	322	20%
Non-Handicap Novices Claimer Hurdle	42	14	33%	-1.54	16	38%
Non-Handicap Novices Hunters Chase	136	52	38%	-10.12	29	21%
Non-Handicap Novices Hurdle	4100	1890	46%	-241.58	1256	31%
Non-Handicap Novices Seller Hurdle	113	47	42%	24.14	29	26%
Non-Handicap Seller	1557	551	35%	16.25	457	29%
Non-Handicap Seller Hurdle	459	179	39%	4.47	133	29%

Many thanks top2rated

Now thats what I call going over and above the call of duty!

Thankyou for creating this post and for the fascinating stats.

Is there anywhere you can find out what percentage of odds-on horses won/lost within each type of race?

Cheers, Filmfan

What is fascinating about the stats ?

Compare the win-strike percentage of favourites winning in handicap races to non-handicap races. Be good to break down even further how many were odds on and odds against.

http://www.adrianmassey.com/index.php

is also very good for horse racing stats.

FAO filmfan

Odds on favs by race type

Race Category	Bets	Wins	WinStrike	SP_PL	Places	PlaceStrike	ROI
Handicap Nursery Seller	1	1	100%	0.73	0	0%	73.00%
Handicap Claimer	1	1	100%	0.73	0	0%	73.00%
Non-Handicap Maiden Claimer	3	3	100%	2.12	0	0%	70.67%
Non-Handicap Maiden Seller	1	1	100%	0.67	0	0%	67.00%
Non-Handicap Maiden Hunters Chase	4	3	75%	0.88	1	25%	22.00%
Handicap Maiden	5	4	80%	1.06	1	20%	21.20%
Handicap Novices Hurdle	53	34	64%	3.6	11	21%	6.79%
Non-Handicap Maiden Chase	30	19	63%	1.37	3	10%	4.57%
Non-Handicap Beginners Chase	350	226	65%	12.5	52	15%	3.57%
Non-Handicap Seller	230	137	60%	-1.21	56	24%	-0.53%
Non-Handicap Novices Chase	789	502	64%	-11.56	108	14%	-1.47%
Non-Handicap Seller Hurdle	71	42	59%	-1.82	16	23%	-2.56%
Handicap Chase	178	99	56%	-7.58	23	13%	-4.26%
Non-Handicap Novices Hurdle	1675	1027	61%	-72.1	420	25%	-4.30%
Non-Handicap Maiden NH Flat	41	23	56%	-2.54	8	20%	-6.20%
Non-Handicap Maiden	2626	1536	58%	-174.39	677	26%	-6.64%
Non-Handicap Claimer	314	176	56%	-23.45	75	24%	-7.47%
Non-Handicap Novices	207	124	60%	-16.07	30	14%	-7.76%
Non-Handicap Hunters Chase	159	89	56%	-14.1	37	23%	-8.87%
Handicap	810	436	54%	-76.95	175	22%	-9.50%
Non-Handicap Chase	93	55	59%	-8.92	15	16%	-9.59%
Non-Handicap Maiden Hurdle	322	177	55%	-33.12	95	30%	-10.29%
Non-Handicap Novices Hunters Chase	31	17	55%	-3.2	5	16%	-10.32%
Non-Handicap	663	358	54%	-72.96	130	20%	-11.00%
Non-Handicap Novices Seller Hurdle	12	6	50%	-1.51	5	42%	-12.58%
Handicap Nursery	81	41	51%	-10.51	19	23%	-12.98%
Non-Handicap Hurdle	113	63	56%	-15.2	29	26%	-13.45%
Handicap Novices Chase	67	34	51%	-9.64	9	13%	-14.39%
Handicap Hurdle	209	104	50%	-30.2	51	24%	-14.45%
Non-Handicap NH Flat	261	135	52%	-41.24	74	28%	-15.80%
Non-Handicap Claimer Hurdle	31	16	52%	-5.14	11	35%	-16.58%
Non-Handicap Novices Claimer Hurdle	6	3	50%	-1.6	2	33%	-26.67%
Handicap Seller Hurdle	4	1	25%	-2.17	1	25%	-54.25%
Non-Handicap Claimer Chase	2	0	0%	-2	0	0%	-100.00%

Many thanks top2rated!

Just out of interested if you had layed £10 everytime for the odds-on favourite to get beaten in the non-handicap maiden races what would your profit be as a losing odds-on horse can obviously range from 20-21 to 1/33 (and beyond I guess).

Anyway, thanks again! Filmfan

FAO filmfan

Non handicap maiden races only - laying @ SP + 10% less 5% commission.........

Bets	Wins	WinStrike	SP_PL	Places	PlaceStrike	ROI	BF_Lay
2626	1536	58.49%	-174.39	677	25.78%	-6.64%	28.33

Further info relating to above stats from the laying perspective....

Losing sequence	Occurences
1	373
2	162
3	63
4	24
5	12
6	2
7	4
8	1

Winning sequence	Occurences
1	269
2	157
3	87
4	48
5	25
6	30
7	13
8	3
9	2
10	4
11	2

if you include horses finishing first 61.94%

Once again many thanks top2rated! Profit not so hot after all unless you are throwing on hundreds and can be patient.

I have a another question for you regarding odds-on horse stats.

I was doing a bit of googling the other day and found some info regarding all horses that win two races on the bounce. Apparently it is 17.5%.

Would you say this is true but most importantly what percentage of odds-on horses win two on a bounce?

I know many odds-on go on to win three, four, five and more on a bounce but I'm curious as to what percentage it is that an odds-on will win one race but not the next.

Thanks again for your time and trouble.

Filmfan

All horses


Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
80030 13933 17.41% -13316.21 32413 40.50%

odds on

Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike
3785 2217 58.57% -261.58 3036 80.21%

there you go mate

Cheers Dan....at 58% looks like an opportunity to show some long term profit

indeed, you've got me interested in this now, just implementing some lay staking plans :D

filmfan

Bets	Wins	WinStrike	SP_PL	Places	PlaceStrike	ROI	BF_Lay
3083	1805	58.55%	-210.58	647	20.99%	-6.83%	39.94

Win percentage wise my figures are much the same as Dan's.  I suspect he has included Irish racing which would explain the higher number of bets in his analysis. 

So in response to your query as to what percentage it is that an odds-on will win one race but not the next the answer is approx. 42%.

Cheers lads....I'm sure there is a good system to be had through all of this especially if you can find time to check on the usual (course, going, distances, weight etc) plus closely re-watch and re-watch again previous runs on attheraces etc.