General Betting
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Anyone else have difficulty with this psychologically?
Had a really nice run recently, but then find that when I have a little bit of losing run back (still well ahead) I have difficulty coping with it - like I've got too used to winning, lol
I now feel like even winning next few bets won't make as much difference - because it will only get me back to where I was days ago. All too 'short term' I know (should do after 20 years of betting!) but it sticks with me still. I need to have a break.
Had a really nice run recently, but then find that when I have a little bit of losing run back (still well ahead) I have difficulty coping with it - like I've got too used to winning, lol
I now feel like even winning next few bets won't make as much difference - because it will only get me back to where I was days ago. All too 'short term' I know (should do after 20 years of betting!) but it sticks with me still. I need to have a break.
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its a lot to do with the ego ( not having a go ) but the ego gets in the way like it expects to win all the time.
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It is about discipline.
I won £1800 between new year and mid Feb purely by going to the races and avoiding betting at home. I got overconfident and lost the lot by the Grand National (and only £100 of that was lost on Chelts so don't blame the Festival). Reason, I started betting at home, at work, on the phone whatever - not just at the track. I was supremely disciplined and never thought I'd go back to my old habits again, but I still did - why BOREDOM !!!! As long as you have some sort of ability, DISCIPLINE the 90% rule. |
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Collect stats, if you up then the stats should look good even after a loss. unless its a big loss which might mean your staking to much
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Get some thick black tape and cover your balance up for a month at a time .
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That sounds scary Glasgow! But I get the point.
I know it's just an ego and irrational thing - just funny that at times coming off a good run of results can make it harder to take a loss. |
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yes keep the stats as Brendan says , you can take a look back further than when the bad run began then.
I actually get concerned with having too many consecutive winning races , because i want to know with some certainty what the long term profit of my method is, and i want to know this as soon as possible , and having runs that are too good to be true distorts the results and delays this information for me. |
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your always going to hit a bad patch. understand why its inevitable and just accept it
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for every 300 negative thoughts you only get one positive thought, thats the way it is because just like the news, bad news sells and we have to cope with serious negativity in our lives every day
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You are suffering from BBO
Betfair Balance Obsession I've had it for a couple of years, build up the balance over a period of 2-3 weeks then smash it to bits in 1/2 a day kills me every time should give it up really but I'm addicted |
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Don't keep or get hung up by short term recording of p/l , personally never keep any record of daily performances and since full time just under 3 years ago just look at one single cash profit figure , found something that really works for me and play with confidence so consequently daily figures hold no interest and looking at one positive cumulative figure means chasing is or never will be an issue , not a betfarian and only about 12% of annual business placed on the exchanges.
Good luck with the psychology. |
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If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same... |
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In bad run you take more risk to get back quickly and you lose more.
In good run you are happy to take small profits and you make more money. This may not be true in all cases but true in my case. Most important thing to protect yourself is staking and bank management. |
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brendanuk1 26 Apr 22:42
your always going to hit a bad patch. understand why its inevitable and just accept it Spot on. Once you have learned that it is inevitable, you will be fine. |
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It is so important to keep your stakes sensible in relation to the size of your bank. Even if you do have a bad run at least you will be alive to make a comeback.
The worst possible thing that you can do is increase your stakes in an attempt to get the money back. Certainly chasing can work sometimes, but the problem is that if you are down and not feeling good about it this will inevitably have an effect on your decision making process as you begin the chase. |
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Yep - too true. I'm getting better at not chasing these days (only took me about 18 years to learn), and have a lot more control than I used to do. Feel better today anyway - new day's start is always good. Like Kenilworth says it is 'invevitable'.
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Managing and controlling your Psychology should be relatively easy if you have a correct and comfortable staking plan. Although I can understand this might be harder for horse racing guys who can experience longer losing trots than those like me who trade/bet on primarily two runner markets sports markets.
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A key point to understand when playing against BOtfair is that when things are going badly do not get "drawn" out by what seems to be value.
If you have laid or taken price that you have deemed to be of value and the market moves against your expectations, do not fire another bullet. This is sound advice in any gambling situation bot where BOtfair is concerned it is perhaps the number one rule you should adhere to. BOtfair takes no prisoners! |
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That's an interesting point - in fact I did actually in my latest loss put on a marginally bigger stake than I would normally allow for that exact reason. I thought I had terrific value (still do) but the market moved it to an even bigger price - couldn't resist adding a bit more (on top of my usual max stake). Needless to say my value bet lost, lol
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Update since I first posted this.
My losing run has gone on to be a disaster - lost about 6 max bets in a row, lol Goddess gambling knows how to punish you by sticking the boot in when you are down. Now where's that short priced favourite I can chase on.....only kidding. |
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Shrewd, would you care to say what the picks were ?
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I'm a little coy to be honest Ken - listing my losers isn't something I really love to do on a forum. Needless to say I felt they were all great value, but they all lost.
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Glasgow Brian 26 Apr 21:37
Get some thick black tape and cover your balance up for a month at a time . ive often flirted with the idea of covering up my balance and ignoring race results for a day, impossible :D after a win you want to check the balance and after a defeat you want to get the full lowdown on the result.. one day for a laugh ill do it |
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Runs shd be irrelevant so long as you have an edge and stake carefully.
As well as recording your p&l, why not also record yr expectation & expected return per bet and compare after a decent series of bets w/ yr actual return? In a good run, you will prob. be over-winning, then when you give some of it back, reverting to the amount you thought you were going to make. |
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askari - 100% correct
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Understand the feeling completely, deflated, angry, depressed. I have suffered so many times through lack of discipline that I gave up for short periods.
I built up over long periods some very good stacks only to blow the lot during a losing run. It's taken a while but I have finally beaten it by keeping accurate stats and recording my average daily net profit. You will find over time that during a losing run although the bank reduces the effect on the average daily net profit is minimal. Also withdrew enough last year to pay for 2 weeks in the sun that did not affect the daily figure. It's all about not being obsessed with that number on the top right of your screen |