General Betting
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I know there's often threads on this but last couple of months i've been playing around with a foundation idea from a mate and it's been quite suvvessful.
No secrets but i'd like any comments about the pitfalls as thoigh i've run this about 8 weeks my own calcs have this down as "cant be done long term"
Roughly it's dutching to around 1/10 odds wise (so if i was looking for £20 the liability would be £200) and i'd dutch as many down the card to facilitate this.Of course market movers/steamers etc would be usually covered as a safety etc.
Now this then depends how many times the "outsiders" 20/1+ are likely to come in.As odds these days are pretty on the mark your betfair price 40/1 shot will usually oblige 1 in 40 etc etc through the odds.
Now i'm getting "hit" about 1 in 15-20 times so that would be a loss of £200 against 14 wins =£20=£280
I can of cource (using gruss) "even out the bets" if say a horse not dutched hits 3.5 to maybe give a loss of around 80.
Its a case of either taking a "full hit" or going in earlier as odds drop pretty low,though you have a danger in big handicaps of a few horses hitting under 4.s
Dunno if that makes much sense or has much clarity but am i merely being abit lucky and any suggestions from fellow dutchers?
No secrets but i'd like any comments about the pitfalls as thoigh i've run this about 8 weeks my own calcs have this down as "cant be done long term"
Roughly it's dutching to around 1/10 odds wise (so if i was looking for £20 the liability would be £200) and i'd dutch as many down the card to facilitate this.Of course market movers/steamers etc would be usually covered as a safety etc.
Now this then depends how many times the "outsiders" 20/1+ are likely to come in.As odds these days are pretty on the mark your betfair price 40/1 shot will usually oblige 1 in 40 etc etc through the odds.
Now i'm getting "hit" about 1 in 15-20 times so that would be a loss of £200 against 14 wins =£20=£280
I can of cource (using gruss) "even out the bets" if say a horse not dutched hits 3.5 to maybe give a loss of around 80.
Its a case of either taking a "full hit" or going in earlier as odds drop pretty low,though you have a danger in big handicaps of a few horses hitting under 4.s
Dunno if that makes much sense or has much clarity but am i merely being abit lucky and any suggestions from fellow dutchers?
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An interesting concept.....
I bet mainly on the football - but as the season is coming to the end may again have a go at the horses. I've played around with dutching 2 year olds ....as a lot of the field have no form & try and make even money. What type of races to you take on ? maximum / minimun runners etc ... Rgds Ron |
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As for races i dont have any 100% fixed criteria though i'd generally avoid unraced 2yr olds type races,and large quality 5f handicaps simply due to the random unprecitability factor of these types of races.
I tend to avoid bumpers as well.These 3 types of race tend to have more chance of horses trading below 3's so the trading out accross the field would be tricky eg 3/4 horses might trade below 4's in a bumper or handicap hurdle which would mean if you do play those races you need to "take the full hit" IF one of your non dutched horses comes in. I find it's a more a numbers game as your playing a ratio of "how many times the outsider(s) come in. This is if you like a "safer" version of the old lay the outsiders,which is usually a foolish game to play as your laying horses at say 60/1 for a quick tenner but if done long term you'l be hit 1 in 60 anyway thus wiping out a weeks winings or similair. With this framework you still have the liability with the outsiders yet much reduced ie on a dutch ratio oh 1/10 (£10 for £100 liability) youve laid the outsiders at say 10/1 instead of 25/40/100/1 and the like. I know not much system theory talk goes on on general betting these days it seems to be full of 1.01 challenges and gay fashion tips but hopefully still a few dutchers out there. |
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I don't understand.
At one stage you are saying the odds are about right in general Having accepted this, how do you think you can make a profit long term, after commission etc? Something doesn't add up there. |
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That's exactly my point treble.I've been fulltiming it for the last 8 weeks with very good profits.However i was only originaly toying with the framework and looking for a few ways of perhaps tweaking it and reducing some risk factors.
The winnings sort of came by accident as i was expecting things to be cancelled out at a higher ratio of outsiders coming in ie more non dutched outsiders winning races. It ideally needs tightening up mathematically and that's the reason i really opened the thread to see if anyone had spotted any glaring errors that would come home to roost. I'm not reccomending this to anyone in anyway just wondering if others had gone down this route.Experience tells me that the "system" is too random and flawed to work in the long run. |
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As for odds' "being right in general" yes i think as opposed to say 7 years ago the BF market tends to be pretty accurate as a stand alone price indicator of a horses/teams chance.
I'm basing things on (perhaps incorrectly) on a 1/10 liabilty on horses having say an average of 20/1 chance of coming in. Like i say though i feel i've simply had a lucky streak and there's perhaps no solid foundation in thsi long term (which is fair enough) |
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BonViv.... I've been working on something similar for over a year now with high's and lows.
What's your e-mail mate? |
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Lizard
My email is nickhuk at the "hotone" dot co m,drop me a line we can exchange some notes maybe eliminate a few pitfalls. Cheers |
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Ok BonViv, I've sent you an e-mail...
Really busy at the moment but I'll send you more as soon as I can. |