General Betting
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Has anyone else noticed the lack of early goals in the in-play matches over the last few days? Anyone backing to lay the 0-0 has made a killing! I've been recording the stats all season and have never seen anything like this, I wouldn't have thought it was even possible such is the lack of early goals. Anyone who backs the 0-0 will know what I'm talking about - do you expect a reversal over the next few weeks?
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I might be missing something but it's a minefield. If you get on before they stick the grands up you might get a good price. If you're joining the queue, i.e the end of it with all those thousands they put up, I don't think you're getting a good deal.
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Rocket, I'm talking about backing the 0-0 to lay off. Matches where the Grands come are usually high odds matches such as R Madrid, Barcelona, where the 10k guy usually lumps it on at top price and holds the price up for 10 minutes after KO.
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are you talking about during the game??
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Pre KO back, to lay in-play. This evening alone saw 10 matches in a row that had no goals in the first half an hour, that's unusual like throwing 10 Tails in a row, but it's been happening for days now, just wondered if others think it will continue due to end of season defensiveness or something?
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ah right.
give it a shot, see if it works. wouldnt touch it with a barge pole personally, too many things can go wrong when lumping on the 0-0. And that's after you've tried to get on at a reasonable price. |
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you can often get out with a profit before kick off
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did you record when the opposite happend ?? or because of the type of bet you make you're giving it much more importance than it really has
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Suprisingly, simply backing the 0-0 pre KO in all in-play matches last week would have paid approx 190 points profit after comm, and it's been similar but not quite that good for several weeks now.
0-0 back to lay traders will have made a killing. The question is, is it due to end of season tension and likely to continue, or will there be a regression to the mean, and 0-0 layers will get their money back! |
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interesting. i played with 0-0 trading and found it hard. to make money you either had to get in before the money came in or you had to be at the head of the money with a lay ready. and even then you had to be careful, if it started going the other way it was a cancel straight away. if you've foud another way, give me more details.
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Lusitano71, yes I did record the opposite, but no runs have been seen like the current one. Over the whole season backers of the 0-0 would be approx 400 points up, not bad if you're using £50 stakes.
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well the motivation to score goals overall is less important now than it was at the beginning and middle of regular season, but this argument could also be used for less motivation to defend, the question is what has more influence in the final result
im not saying this is the reason but all this small things put together could explain part of it |
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surely some teams are MORE motivated to score towards the end of the season?
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how many matches is this sample?
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yes Rocket for sure
the ones fighting at the top of the table and the ones avoiding relegation but all the others are more or less done |
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those aren't the only factors. if they were, you'd see some pretty bizzare prices!!
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i am intrigued though because to me it was a very hard market to crack or even to make a dent in.
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Suprisingly, simply backing the 0-0 pre KO in all in-play matches last week would have paid approx 190 points profit after comm, and it's been similar but not quite that good for several weeks now.
How often during this period did the following happen: The price for 0-0 increased after kick off The market suspended right after kick off The market did not go in play The market went in play at HT The price for 0-0 decreased after lineups were displayed on t.v 5 mins before kick off The price for 0-0 increased after lineups were displayed on t.v 5 mins before kick off etc etc |
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Rocket, those scenarios don't matter as I'm mainly talking about backing the 0-0 and leaving it, but even if trading out at some point into the match it doesn't really matter if that match doesn't go in-play and you lose the whole stake, it's just 1 point - laying first is a different story of course.
Just done the stats for yesterday, and once again backing all the in-play 0-0's would have returned 39 points profit after comm. I can't see it lasting much longer! |
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Trevh 14 Apr 01:37
Pre KO back, to lay in-play. This evening alone saw 10 matches in a row that had no goals in the first half an hour, that's unusual like throwing 10 Tails in a row, but it's been happening for days now, just wondered if others think it will continue due to end of season defensiveness or something? Trev, it could be that your impression of last nights matches was skewed by an pre- existing perception that there are fewer early goals at present. 3 of last nights English League matches ended 0-0 out of a total of 24. With this size sample, 3 is not significantly more than usual. In the 21 matches where goals were scored, 4 games had goals on or within 5 minutes. In the 21 matches where goals were scored, 8 came within 20 minutes. In the 21 matches where goals were scored, there were only 5 matches where the first goal came after 30 minutes There were 8 out of 24 matches with a 0-0 score at half time. None of these figures are in any way unusual. |
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Thanks for reply Beetle. The stats I view are for in-play matches only, so I guess the sequences are down to the randomness of BF's selected matches i.e. they choose say 30 matches from a possible 200 to go in-play, and of them there could be many or few goals. They sure have selected by coincidence a large amount of 0-0's over the last few weeks, and I would imagine there could well be days or weeks ahead where they select none by coincidence, which would balance up the average over a longer time period.
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ok.. maybe something in it with tight matches come the end of the season and maybe the tighter matches are being selected ... but with any football stats I find it best to have a sample of at least 100 before drawing any conclusions.
The thing with apparent trends is that they stand out because they are actually just a peak or a trough in a long term flat. |
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Tight matches (Spurs v Arsenal) tend to have a slightly later ''first goal'' compared with a potentially unbalanced match (Chelsea v Bolton) but this would only be around 3 mins difference. Some books offer prices on ''before'' or ''after'' a certain time, usually between 25 and 29 mins depending on who is playing who.
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I see the aforementioned 10k layer has lumped 11.5k at 70's in the Ajax match! He'll hold the price there for a bit.
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he is obviously too young to have watched the Burton Albion v Manchester United 0-0 draw 5 years ago which was only 36.0
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Lol Beetle, he's just lumped the 10k at 40's now in the Barcelona match. I wonder if he reds-up if it looks like staying 0-0 or lets it ride? Half a million or so loss would hurt just a bit I would have thought.
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Only 2 years since Barca drew 0-0 to Numancia at home ;)
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If anyone's interested, on it goes, todays in-play matches saw 5 0-0's paying approx 29 points profit after comm.
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Today's in-play matches saw something of a reversal - the worm has turned - with around 75% of matches having an early goal, I have a feeling the 0-0 backers are about to channel some of their profits back to the layers over the next few weeks, we'll see.
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