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DJ Sunset
22 Sep 06 14:07
Joined:
Date Joined: 20 Feb 01
| Topic/replies: 3,088 | Blogger: DJ Sunset's blog
I can't think of any other company that has such an inefficient pricing system to its customers.

Companies have two goals - growth and profit (and in isolated cases, altruism). Betfair has a scarce resource from which to make its profit - losing punters. The losing punters pay for Betfair's profit, and winners' winnings.

In every other industry not in their infancy, their pricing mechanism is geared towards extracting the maximum possible revenue from different customers. No pricing system is perfect, but there is the clear differential between say student discounts on air flights, and business travellers.

It just seems to me that Betfair, 35m profit this year, which has its profits dwarfed by the Big 3 bookmakers, is sitting on its own pot of gold. Winners take money out of the system, whereas non-winners shuffled money between themselves at an attritional rate.

Once Betfair's growth declines (which it inevitably will), just how long will it be until non-profitable winning accounts are either restricted or shut down? I can see it happening within a year or two of floatation, possibly even before.

I know this has been raised before, but if I was Mr Miaggi, and I'd just put 400 million into Betfair, it just seems an obvious way to at a stroke make profits leap from 35m.
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Report Feck N. Eejit October 5, 2009 7:52 PM BST
zipper, did you used to run a stall in albert square?
Report No Chatname Specified October 5, 2009 8:17 PM BST
Feck N. Eejit.
Nomen est omen.
Report heynoodles October 5, 2009 8:23 PM BST
Very prescient thread. Was it not possible for bf to close the opportunities for people to win "too quickly" - ie a longer delay on IR horseracing, rather than taking the extra 20%. The pc doesnt help the losers at all from what I can see.
Report Feck N. Eejit October 6, 2009 9:55 AM BST
No chatname specified 05 Oct 21:17
Feck N. Eejit.
Nomen est omen.


Wow. You're the first of the "I've just thought of something funny. I'll call Feck N. Eejit an Eejit" clowns to make a cnut of yourself in latin.
Report Feck N. Eejit October 6, 2009 9:58 AM BST
Very prescient thread. Was it not possible for bf to close the opportunities for people to win "too quickly" - ie a longer delay on IR horseracing, rather than taking the extra 20%. The pc doesnt help the losers at all from what I can see.

Agree with you there noodles. They could've wiped out most of the winners at a stroke by closing down interface loopholes but instead they've went for a slice of the action (there isn't even an incentive to harass insiders any more). As the mole says, the Sopranas haven't a look in.
Report pmbets October 6, 2009 10:03 AM BST
If Betfair continue on this road of attacking winning accounts I see a time when the tide turns against them and the decline rapidly continues
Report heynoodles October 6, 2009 10:13 AM BST
Betfair becoming a world wide force they can only grow, imo
Report Gin October 6, 2009 11:06 AM BST
This thread is certainly an interesting read and an indication of how perceptions can change over time. I can vaguely remember the thread and at the time would never have believed that Betfair would do what they did.

I cant help feeling that Betfair have gone about things the way they have because they need the traders for in-running liquidity (give me both barrels Feck! :) ) and the reason they havent just
Report Feck N. Eejit October 6, 2009 12:23 PM BST
I agree to some extent Gin. There is a lot of competition among traders to take advantage of the invuilt **s particularly in the flies-round-sh1te markets.

If ir liquidity was the only reason though betfair could have confined the pc to ir.
Report Feck N. Eejit October 6, 2009 12:23 PM BST
*inbuilt
Report Rueben October 6, 2009 12:26 PM BST
afternoon eejit - same old sh!te I see ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ...
Report Coachbuster October 6, 2009 12:31 PM BST
Nomina stultorum scribuntur ubique locorum
Report Feck N. Eejit October 6, 2009 12:32 PM BST
Afternoon Reubers. Are you being pursued by a bumble bee?

Your own hives no doubt? What a guy.
Report Moonlight October 6, 2009 12:59 PM BST
If not for the traders the whole of Betfair would be a ghost town.
Feck would be sitting in a corner by himself muttering "Come on ya mugs, lay this 2/1 shot at 3/1".
Report Coachbuster October 6, 2009 1:05 PM BST
BF know how the markets work , they wouldnt discourage traders for that reason ...they effectively work for BF in a round about wage ...much the same as Tesco need check out assistants .

I can't imagine theyre eating into their profit that much .


The fast pic and hoover merchants are the ones causing the damage
Report Coachbuster October 6, 2009 1:05 PM BST
way*
Report Gin October 6, 2009 1:34 PM BST
Feck N. Eejit 06 Oct 13:23
I agree to some extent Gin. There is a lot of competition among traders to take advantage of the invuilt **s particularly in the flies-round-sh1te markets.

If ir liquidity was the only reason though betfair could have confined the pc to ir.


Maybe they thought they would test the waters and see how much stink would be caused, with a view to making the PC applicable to in-running only if it became necessary to appease the non-traders?
Report tobermory May 3, 2010 1:40 AM BST
very old thread saved ( Sep 2006)
Report I've got to...didcot, yately May 3, 2010 3:17 AM BST
interesting that DJ sunset appears as DJ sunset again.
Report Fluff$ May 3, 2010 10:12 AM BST
What had they changed DJ's name to?
Report I've got to...didcot, yately May 3, 2010 1:34 PM BST
not sure who changed it but it was "you are a liar, so sad" or summit
Report Fluff$ May 3, 2010 5:05 PM BST
Cheers for the reply.
Report leetsfosllab May 3, 2010 5:24 PM BST
Hi

Just flicked through this thread. Not seen it mentioned but forgive me if it has.

One way of increasing profits would be to charge per transaction rather than commission. It could be a very small charge (1or 2p) but given the number of transactions here it would seem a more profitable way to go
Report The Investor May 3, 2010 5:32 PM BST

I've got to...didcot, yately 03 May 13:34
not sure who changed it but it was "you are a liar, so sad" or summit


Yep, there was certainly a very strange dynamic going on between betfair and him.

I can't help but notice how DJ's elasticity of demand stuff is so close to the way the PC works.
Report Norma Stitz May 3, 2010 7:14 PM BST
I would like to lay 4/1 shot at 11/2.
Report marky sparky May 3, 2010 7:21 PM BST
why are there no dates on this page of the thread?
Report tobermory May 3, 2010 7:24 PM BST
There are dates but you have to scroll across because Rueben's ZZZZZZZZ post lengthened the page
Report Norma Stitz May 3, 2010 7:30 PM BST
Yep. Never mind the length. Feel the width.
Report betting_quant July 24, 2010 11:08 PM BST
DJ Sunset Joined: 20 Feb 01
Replies: 116 22 Sep 06 15:33   


Bridgey> they don't need to close any accounts down, but I can see in the future that they may change their pricing mechanism to extract more money from winning accounts.

Who is this DJ,he seems very prophetic, does he post any tips anywhere ?
Report Feck N. Eejit July 25, 2010 9:05 AM BST
Sadly missed. In those days giants roamed this forum.
Report buzzer September 5, 2010 7:08 PM BST
.
Report I've got to...didcot, yately September 5, 2010 11:15 PM BST
jesus. over 4 years since this thread was posted. what am i doiung with my life? and will i be doing with it in 4 years? Cry
Report The Magician (100) September 6, 2010 9:39 PM BST
Spoke to DJ last week.

He is doing well for those that are interested.

Sadly many of the best posters here got banned one way or another....

and then then new forum format killed off the few that remained.

this forum is so dead it is sad.

2003-2004 it was an gambling intelectuals paradise,
Report MIB34 September 6, 2010 9:59 PM BST

"2003-2004 it was an gambling intelectuals paradise"



Sooo true !


There were 2 factors  that really helped..

1,   Huge  quantaties  of excess cash   from a booming housing market
and
2,  Most people on here were happy   to help on another  due  to the liquidity  of the markets..
Knowing  if  they helped each other  out,  they could both profit  in the same market.


At least 80+ %  of people  didn't  have bots  either.  Creating  voliatility  in markets   even  before  football matches.
Report CLYDEBANK29 September 6, 2010 10:30 PM BST
not sure what my idea of paradise is but it certainly isnt the 03/04 Betfair forumGrin
Report IB Gaming September 7, 2010 4:28 AM BST
not sure what my idea of paradise is but it certainly isnt the 03/04 Betfair forum

Yes, but to be fair The Magician was talking about intellectuals [;)]
Report Back High Lay Low September 7, 2010 10:33 AM BST
Definitely started going downhill mid to late 04.
Report Coachbuster September 7, 2010 11:27 AM BST
i would love to have been on betfair at that time ...seems i missed some good times
Report Ron Pillock September 7, 2010 11:39 AM BST
Spoke to DJ last week.

He is doing well for those that are interested.


Doing what, gambling on Big brother or trying to become a contestant?
Report joesdad September 8, 2010 3:32 PM BST
Wasn't he just a fast picture merchant in the end? Read all about his gambling prowess on his website but didn't he travel courtside to tennis games to get his edge???
Report Knight Rider September 8, 2010 7:41 PM BST
From what I remember back in 04 everyone was saying how much better the forum was in 02 Laugh

DJ sorely missed, I know he wasn't universally liked but his posts were a million times more interesting than most of the dross on here.
Report no moves September 8, 2010 10:12 PM BST
Paddy Power have gone out of business I didn't know that.
Report The Betfairy September 9, 2010 8:06 AM BST
Obviously, some people knew what was happening behind the scenes at Betfair.
Report Ron Pillock September 9, 2010 11:11 AM BST
but didn't he travel courtside to tennis games to get his edge???

That was Troy Mclure
Report joesdad September 9, 2010 11:18 AM BST
Ahh yes sorry
Report The Magician (100) September 10, 2010 10:22 PM BST
DJ

is investingating some, ideas....

merging exchange and economics

end of the day he was a pretty clever man that had some good clarity on exchanges

I know some people knocked him, but he was always good to me
Report Avocado September 11, 2010 12:11 AM BST
Were you in a relationship with him?
Report Ron Pillock September 11, 2010 9:57 AM BST
To me the the abiding memory of DJ is the photo of him under a bridge, in an article about him. Apparently this is the natural home of yer Bona fide pro punter.
Report efisio. September 11, 2010 2:28 PM BST
Haven't read the thread, but I can tell you they restricted my account as soon as they introduced the Premium charge. I now place very limited bets here. Largely gone back to the High Street, which I genuinely never thought I would. In truth I am no worse off. If BF really want the golden days back, with plenty of liquidity, they must scrap the premium charge, alas I suspect they don't.
Report goldy September 21, 2010 11:27 PM BST
Betting exchanges are the only place consistent winning account holders, will not get their account shut down.
Therefore if Betfair did this i think there would be more people go on the purple site, than the commission charge has caused.
Having said that i think its apointless discussion because most people have losing accounts anyway, so its not an issue.
Report squizz September 21, 2010 11:41 PM BST
Can I asky why no one has ever set up a forum for Betfair outwith the Betfair network?
Report dashero June 29, 2011 9:51 AM BST
Sad
Report Knight Rider June 29, 2011 9:59 AM BST
Well done Dashero.  Hats off to DJ for the opening post, you have to say it was stunningly prescient.  But I also wonder if this was an 'inception' moment when someone at BF Towers read this thread and 5 years later we all have Mr Sunset to blame.

Hang the DJ? Laugh
Report dashero June 29, 2011 10:02 AM BST
Yes KR it was prophetic stuff fom DJ and I agree that it may have planted a seed at the towers along with Troy's commission boast....
Report Dr J June 29, 2011 10:09 AM BST
Unbelievable foresight from the DJ....!

Shocked
Report layer1982 June 29, 2011 10:33 AM BST
wow...
Report five leaves left June 29, 2011 11:30 AM BST
Indeed.

Bloody DJ gave them the idea ;)


Interesting that their profit in 2006 was 35M. This year it's 26.6M.
So the changes clearly haven't worked.
Report saint-pilgrim June 29, 2011 12:15 PM BST
May it be that the costs have increased exponentially to develop and support the non-used non-profit-contributing products?
Report brendanuk1 June 29, 2011 12:18 PM BST
May it be that the costs have increased exponentially to develop and support the non-used non-profit-contributing products?

And layers and layers of poor management
Report catfloppo June 29, 2011 12:18 PM BST
Knight Rider

Hang the DJ?


Lol!
Report brendanuk1 June 29, 2011 12:22 PM BST
from OP 2006 seems an obvious way to at a stroke make profits leap from 35m.

from today while pre-tax profit jumped 54.4 per cent to £35.1 million.

Going nowhere fast with pc
Report five leaves left June 29, 2011 12:22 PM BST
He's been hung plenty of times on specials forum.
Mainly due to the restrictions put into place on many weekly markets thanks to him, which have killed liquidity in all the shows bar the X Factor.
Report par June 29, 2011 1:35 PM BST
wow, that man is wiser than solomon
Report catfloppo June 29, 2011 1:38 PM BST
It was pretty obvious really, incredible that they didn't do it sooner and a shame they didn't do it better.
Report Feck N. Eejit June 29, 2011 2:10 PM BST
Some sadly missed names on this thread. DJ, medemi (how are you my old mucker?), CAT, frog, morris, magician, ... It was good to look back through it and see some of the ridiculous comments from the "it can't happen because we're so important and supply unlimited and famous liquidity" Ferengi clowns.
Report TheVis September 25, 2011 11:17 PM BST
.
Report bf_fananatic September 25, 2011 11:57 PM BST
Betfair wont stop winners betting as clearly now they are very important to there profits, some may find there other accounts getting closed if they are evading premium charge payments as this would have to be stamped out or else there is no point having the charge in place.

There is clearly also a mechanism in place within the 40%-60% terms and conditions of the new premium charge that seems to suggest that churning is ok as this will increase the overall profits made for betfair or am I seeing a mirage in the structure of the charging mechanism?

The reasons for the hike to all observations lie between 2 possible scenarios

1.....Betfair needs to raise its profit profile from marginal to beyond to pay for housekeeping

2.....Betfair is struggling with its drop in share value to attract much needed cash to keep
on going or its curtains.

anypoint between these two obvious but uncertain scenario conditions says one major thing to
any business specialist which I confess not to be, and that is, its going to be a bumpy road
in the mid to long term for betfairs survival as exchange leader and its perceived ethos is
now totally changed, possibly irreversibly and the effect this will have with the press and the
public now not pitching in there court of admiration anymore on the input levels of new customers
and new money agains newly percieved fairer betting exchanges
will not be known for a year or two
but for betfair just too keep its fingers crossed hoping for nil effect would be voted
the most enterprising business delusion of the century, and on that premise we all know betfair
would win that prize now, hands down.

If not happy then prosperous punting all on BF.
Report acquiesce12 September 26, 2011 12:08 AM BST
They are spending alot of time/effort/money into gaining authorisation to trade/operate in several other countries atm, can't see other countries putting up with 40-60%, wasted venture.
Report paulme September 26, 2011 12:14 AM BST
bff Laugh

seriously dude where does it all come from
Report bf_fananatic September 26, 2011 12:41 AM BST
acquiesce12

They are spending alot of time/effort/money into gaining authorisation to trade/operate in several other countries atm, can't see other countries putting up with 40-60%, wasted venture.

So in effect now there theoretically spending winners profits to sell there version of an ideal
sporting exchange. perhaps if this fails because of the premium charges they will design keyhole
terms and conditions for different countries, its worked in the uk so theres plenty will fall for it globally, reckon publicity avoidance is there preferred method, seems to have back fired though at there annual get together[;)]
Report bf_fananatic September 26, 2011 12:43 AM BST
Hi paulme, I don't know where it keeps coming from, but like I said to my friend today I am full of it[;)]
Report bf_fananatic September 26, 2011 12:46 AM BST
Loved the comments in the press about betfair staff being nominated for baftas, tickled me immenselyBlush
Report acquiesce12 September 26, 2011 12:49 AM BST
They won't get the licensing in the end, just like America, it will be decided Betfair is a form of money laundering, so the PC is one issue. They should ge their house in order first and concentrate on their falling share price.
Report paulme September 26, 2011 12:55 AM BST
how you/they mean BAFTA's?
Report kenilworth October 1, 2011 10:40 AM BST
So in effect now there theoretically spending winners profits to sell there version of an ideal


From bff post. Highlighted should read traders earnings
Report frimpong December 12, 2011 3:59 AM GMT
OP banned Confused
Report slartibartfast December 12, 2011 8:47 PM GMT
Yes, but not for winning.

Eddy had wisdom beyond his years IMHO. But even he did not see how far it was going to go.

"Once Betfair's growth declines (which it inevitably will), just how long will it be until non-profitable winning accounts are either restricted or shut down? I can see it happening within a year or two of floatation, possibly even before."

But he was also like a dog with a bone and didn't know when to keep his powder dry.

Love him or loathe him, this forum would be a more interesting place if he was still around. Instead we have these pseudo-intellectuals with ADHD, who have done the online MENSA test and believe they are a cut above the rest of us. (£17.50 per mug)

Love
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR December 12, 2011 9:00 PM GMT
Is he actually banned from betting on the site ?
If so, that would be a first ?
Pretty unenforceable though, in that he could get any member of his family presumably to front an account for him.
Report tobermory December 12, 2011 10:11 PM GMT
Not banned from betting, no just the forum.
Report frimpong December 13, 2011 10:15 AM GMT
why is he banned from the forum guys?
Report StreetFutsal December 13, 2011 2:16 PM GMT
But he was also like a dog with a bone and didn't know when to keep his powder dry.

Love him or loathe him, this forum would be a more interesting place if he was still around. Instead we have these pseudo-intellectuals with ADHD, who have done the online MENSA test and believe they are a cut above the rest of us. (£17.50 per mug)


Laugh
Report TheVis November 25, 2012 5:10 PM GMT
Remember this?
Report andyl November 25, 2012 10:00 PM GMT
it's called PREMIUM CHARGE
Report andyl November 25, 2012 10:00 PM GMT
the worst thing BETFAIR EVER INTRODUCED Cry
Report sweetchildofmine November 25, 2012 10:02 PM GMT
lol remember when he was on big brother wasnt chosen on the first night
Report sweetchildofmine November 25, 2012 10:03 PM GMT
#but wasnt chosen
Report andyl November 26, 2012 12:24 AM GMT
http://eddymurraydj.tripod.com/sexydjcom/

for anyone interested Grin
Report Andriy January 25, 2014 11:10 AM GMT
More reading for Smithy...

so did DJ Sunset start it all off putting the idea into BF's mind Mischief
Report Darlo Bantam January 25, 2014 12:01 PM GMT
I know this is eight years down the line, but OP was correct in his post and his ensuing debate.
Report bongo January 26, 2014 5:01 PM GMT
A good ttt Andriy, cheers

The last betfair annual report is online at (.http://www.investegate.co.uk/betfair-group-plc--bet-/rns/final-results/201... and contains some comedy gems:

'Excellent progress made in the delivery of our turnaround plan' - yeah right, turning new in-play exchange punters around in the doorway and sending them straight back out.
'New management team in place and cultural change underway' - that's the culture which permits ex-employees to break sporting rules and betfair's own rules by 'courtsiding' right.
'improving the ease of use of the Exchange, while still allowing our customers to benefit fully from its unique characteristics and value' - is that the value which means a new customer to the exchange having a look at in-play for the first time will have his bet matched at least 20% of the time by someone mugging him off using a private data feed.

It should be possible for a newcomer to in-play to win say 40% of the time following the action at home on Sky, and half the losers to feel that they had value and/or excitement at some point. This is pure guessing from the 20% courtsider matched-bets, but if newcomers win say 32% of the time per event and only 40% of the losers had a value exciting experience, then newcomers are both being ripped off and less likely to come back.

'While total Gaming revenues were down 6% in the year, led by a 26% decline in unregulated jurisdictions following market exits' - Surely that is black humour. The unregulated jurisdiction is right here where their own rules are not being enforced:
'Specific Conditions relating to your use of the Exchange
    Your Conduct
    You will at all times act in good faith in relation to the counterparties to your bets struck through the Exchange and such counterparties will be able to enforce this duty directly against you. In particular you will not place bets on the Exchange in breach of any sporting rules, regulations or code of conduct which apply to you.'
Report Rob_The_Bantam September 8, 2015 1:41 AM BST
Thanks to cpfc4me for providing a link to this.  A good read.
Report cdog September 10, 2015 3:41 PM BST
Oh god this old chestnut. Many people assume the decline began in September 2008 when they announced the premium charge, but now it transpires it was 2 years earlier when DJ Sunset first gave them the idea Cry
Report CLYDEBANK29 September 10, 2015 4:28 PM BST
DJ didn't give them the idea, they were already thinking along those lines, so no need to blame him.   Col Archaius Tory was "in the know" and he says as much in his OP.

250 posts in one day.  Shows how the forum has changed.
Report tobermory November 24, 2016 6:07 AM GMT
Thread is over 10 years old now
Report Coachbuster November 24, 2016 7:08 AM GMT
made me laugh how dogdice was throwing in totally random comments at the start in a disruptive  attempt to 'lose' the thread.  Laugh
Report Coachbuster November 24, 2016 7:10 AM GMT
....make that a futile attempt  Grin
Report TheFear November 26, 2016 6:09 PM GMT
There was an economist on Question Time this week and she said we need to move away from this attitude of companies just going all out to make profits for their shareholders at the expense of creating opportunities down the line for the general population. To be honest she could have been talking about Betfair because the premium charge and in-house bots seems very short sighted and it's hard to be optimistic about the future.
Report scandanavian_haven November 27, 2016 10:06 AM GMT
In a word, has their Sportsbook been a success ?
Report TheFear November 28, 2016 2:39 PM GMT
yes
Report bingo bongo November 28, 2016 4:30 PM GMT
Launching the sportsbook probably encouraged paddy power to buy betfair. So for the shareholders its a success, for exchange customers, not so much.
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