General Betting
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I read somewhere near the end of the last flat season that if you LAY every odds-on fav you'll win good over first 3 months and not bad for rest of the flat season. It makes sense as there is more of a level playing field as it is a new season.(This would have made a profit at Cheltenham this yeartoo!)
I think the flat season starts on Friday.
I'll try it for £10 a lay. Liabilities are low if I lose.Due to work(nights). I may lay a horse at odds on and later moves to evens or more before the off.Or the other way around, miss one as it goes odds on. I will lay odds on if they are the odds when I see them - early morning or night before.
My starting bank will be about £300 and adjust stakes as I go.
Will try to post results daily if I can.
All helpful supporting comments welcome.
'YOU CAN IF you believe you can!'
I think the flat season starts on Friday.
I'll try it for £10 a lay. Liabilities are low if I lose.Due to work(nights). I may lay a horse at odds on and later moves to evens or more before the off.Or the other way around, miss one as it goes odds on. I will lay odds on if they are the odds when I see them - early morning or night before.
My starting bank will be about £300 and adjust stakes as I go.
Will try to post results daily if I can.
All helpful supporting comments welcome.
'YOU CAN IF you believe you can!'
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Replies: 55
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im so excited
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tony
you sound like a moron give it up now :p |
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:^0 pmsl
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Good luck Tony
B-) |
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good luck
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Thanks for the support,except...(there's always one) All races at Doncaster look odds against so no bets.
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By definition, odds on favourites all have a better chance of winning than odds against faves. So- if you are prepared to lay odds on faves, why do you not consider laying odds against faves, which have, by definition, more chance of losing?
Answer: ...............................,-~*`¯lllllll`*~,............................................. ..... ...........................,-~*`lllllllllllllllllllllllllll¯`*-,.......................................... ......................,-~*llllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll*-,...................................... ..................,-*llllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll.\... ...........IT DONT WORK! ................;*`lllllllllllllllllllllllllll,-~*~-,llllllllllllllllllll\.................................... ................\lllllllllllllllllllllllllll/...........\;;;;llllllllllll,-`~-,................................ .................\lllllllllllllllllllll,-*.............`~-~-,...(.(¯`*,`,............................... ...................\llllllllllll,-~*........................)_-\..*`*;..).............................. .....................\,-*`¯,*`)............,-~*`~................../............................... .....................|/.../.../~,......-~*,-~*`;.................../.\.............................. .................../.../..../..../..,-,..*~,.`*~*..................*...\.......................... ... ...................|.../.../..../.*`...\................................)....)¯`~,........... ......... ...................|./..../..../........).........)`*~-,............../.....|..)...`~-,.............. .................././.../....,*`-,.....`-,....*`....,---......\...../...../..|..........¯```*~-,,,, .................(............)`*~-,.....`*`.,-~*.,-*.......|.../..../..../...............\.......... ..................*-,.......`*-,...`~,..``.,,,-*.............|.,*...,*....|.................\......... ......................*,.........`-,....)-,..................,-*`...,-*.....(`-,..............\........ ........................f`-,........`-,/...*-,___,,-~*.....,-*......|....`-,...............\....... Dr Aristotle Slicer PhD MB BS B Pharm MRCVS DRCOG Cert BHD Professor of Logical Gambleology North Southeast Mumbai University |
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Normally odds on favs would have a better chance of winning,but at start of new season all horses are fresh.Last 5 years stats back me up.There was one just over evens yesterday. Did lay the 4 shortest odds for £2 and made £1+ profit! I also thought the weather was against the favs(heavy rain).
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Good luck tony. Got to be worth a try despite what some other people think :)
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I will have a look at this thread in 3 months time....and if it hits 1200 posts and your up about £4.20, I will give it a miss.
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A wee bit too generic mate
have a look at claimers & selling races and maybe take a peek at horses that have won recently also |
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!st Bet Lay Wind Star 15.10 Redcar. 5/4/10
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http://www.adrianmassey.com/fav/fav1.php
Take a look at the stats for flat favourites in the link above |
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Blind systems are not the way to go. Every race and every horse has to be assessed on its own merits.
If you MUST do this system, at least go down the track and assess the favourites in the paddock first. |
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Groan. If only these people who come up with half-baked theories like this knew. It costs them money to find out the hard way. So be it
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If only it was that easy................
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Keep searching - do you think you are the only einstein to have thought this one up .
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its all about the price mate - if you can lay at bookies sp you be near
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Glasgow Brian ........ Price has nowt to do with it when laying you need to pick losers .. lets have a bit of fun thtough the afternoon .. round 1.45 yarm lay Clockmaker ..
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Clockmaker will win this imo. yet again i dont know much about horse racing
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WD Zip!!
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Clockmaker .. ran out of time mind you if he had won that would wind zipper up .. its only a bit of fun more to follow .....
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Generally speaking imo laying or backing the favorite is a waste of time.
If you lay only the favorite at the time you place the bet, what is to say that it starts favorite? Favorites are usually closer in price to their chance of winning than the rest of the field and after deducting commission is usually a losing proposition longterm whichever way you bet on it. |
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Round 2 Hunt 2.10 Lay Guydus zzzzzzz
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2.25 Chep lay National Obsession .
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Nobody has any feed back ...... Oh well ..... but here my answer to Glasgow Brian price dont matter ...... if they are not good enough to win .......lay em ... odds on lay em till your nose bleeds ..... zip will lay 4 more horses to day .. and to boot i have 3 win bets later on ..
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One last on to my friend Glasgow Brian this chepstow race 3.00 race my back side 2 runners back Massini Sunset lay the other runner its a 2 horse race .. cash in . better than robbin banks .......you dont go to prision if your wrong ..
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At the off on this site betfair Two runners over 1 million bet on the match ...
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Tonystip .. zip has seen em all .. Phill Bull ... John Gough .. Mickey Fingers .. The butterfy John Mort Green ....... Run Away Tony .. John Banks.. need i go on .. but they all....... ever one of em had...... BALLS .. and very strong opinions .. god bless em .
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just read all this, laying favs can make you money, its all about strike rate. my mate makes silly money on BF he may lay 4 short odd favs a day. some days he may lose but most days shows great profit.
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Wind Star lost!
Me 1 Sceptics 0 Profit £10 Will adjust for comm end of month.Favs win a 3rd of races of course. A third of odds on favs winning is ok with me! Work nights so will checkmeetings at 9am ,later if day off! Good Luck all. |
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tonystip
Your lay was a non-runner. Surprised you never noticed. Redcar 3:10 - Racing UK On Sky 432 Selling Stakes 7f, Class 6, £1,748.52 1 Pretty Orchid 16/1 2 Castle Myth 5/1 3 Jenny's Pride 13/2 NR: Wind Star 9 ran Distances: 1¾l, ½l, 2¼l |
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i must say one thing in favour of tonys system.im sure its easier to get a shortie beaten in a maiden on the flat than a novice hurdle. id go as far as to say its easier to get shorties beaten on the flat than in national hunt overall.you see so many more unlucky losers on the flat due to horses not getting clear runs and of course so many more tight finishes.ive not checked the stats but as an on course bookie i can look back at my records and see where i find it harder to win. without looking i cant tell you its the low grade jump meetings that provide the worset results bookie wise.
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top2rated 06 Apr 04:52
tonystip Your lay was a non-runner. Surprised you never noticed. ROFPMSL :D |
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sickoflayinwinners 06 Apr 20:52
".......... without looking i cant tell you its the low grade jump meetings that provide the worset results bookie wise". Can't? Did you mean to type can? |
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zip - u say price has nothing to do with it if you're laying - can you please explain ?
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Ive bin paper chasing lays for 6 months now. each morning at around 10 am i record all favs with a lay price of 2,50 or below as if i would be placing the bets. the results have been steady and show a hyperthetical 360 pt profit. I stop at a 2 point profit each day therefore for £10 lays I look for a £20 profit each day. If my maths is correct this equates to an average of £600 per month profit, best I get on it eh!
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put your price in under the current one and " keep "
they nearly all get matched |
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No chatname specified 06 Apr 22:57
if the first 2 go in do you chase to get 2 points profit, what i mean is you find on a monday there are 6 bets say, you lay the first for 1 point, it wins you are now down 1-5 points, very dangerous or is your paper trading showing you that if you have level stakes on each bet and you stop at 2 points profit that you could have accrued 600 points profit. i doubt that. i dont think there is any scenario where backing / laying short price favs comes out on top, not to level stakes anyway, and after that its just distaster. this system is solely reliant on the early favs getting beat and looking at the stats the past few months you have been lucky.very lucky. its simple maths, if the first 2 favs win, you have to win the next 5 or 6 with commission to make 2 points profit. if the first 1 wins you have to win the next 4, i have done things like this for 45 years mate on paper, run adrian massey on short price favs for a 1000 races, nothing either way, you cant back em or lay em without an edge. but i do admire your enthusiasm it takes a lot to jot down all the results everyday for months and try to find the holy grail. keep on, it is there. |