General Betting
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27 Mar 10
12:58
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Date Joined:
27 Apr 04
...do you find there is an optimum percentage spread of the market to dutch?
i.e. the number of runners (from fav through 2nd fav downwards) who's combined prices total over 50%, or 60%, or n% of the market?
i.e. the number of runners (from fav through 2nd fav downwards) who's combined prices total over 50%, or 60%, or n% of the market?
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Personally I aim for between 20% and 50% profit. If I can't achieve this by covering the most likely winners (imo) then I'll leave it.
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Not having time to study form the likely winners (imo) are the top ones of the betting, plus the odd steamer and minus the odd drifter.
Speaking VERY generally, I 'm finding that somewhere around 60% to 80% of the market will get the 20% to 50% profit per stake you're talking about. Just wondered if anyone else works on this basis, or do most do it on a profit basis like yourself. |
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Newbury 1:15
52.51% of the market nets 81.11% profit It can only go downhill from here! |
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I recall some advice from years ago. I was told that in the majority of race only a third of the field were actually capable of winning (that paricular race), and of those only half would be trying.
Add to that the stat that says 86% of winners (I've not checked this for some time) come from the first five in the betting, then you could certainly start to narrow the field down. Add your own judgement and if it's any good you should be able to generate profit. There's definitely no formula that will work without without judgement though - and a little luck. |
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Stevie Strikes
Newbury 1:15 52.51% of the market nets 81.11% profit Please explain the figures above - I don't understand them. |
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I'm doing this to claw back my account that I stupidly lost most of on footy.
After I copy and paste the changing market into my spreadsheet a few times approaching the off, I seem to get a 'feel' from looking at it whether the race is any good to dutch or not...and I've been mostly right and done really well over the last 2 days. If it's luck - and it may well be - perhaps it's best not to analysie it. |
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I'll withdraw the 'little luck' comment. I agree it's more intuition than luck and not to be underestimated.
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top 2
THe fav and 2nd fav were 3.85 and 4, which is 25.97% and 25% making 50.97% of the market. The the return was 17.65 which is 86.57% of a stake of 10.39 on the fav and 10 on the 2nd |
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Thanks for the advice relentless
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I have been doing this recently and def avoid handicap races as there will always be one laid out for a said race. I dutch to win a point and wont use more than 2 points to achieve this seems to work so far.
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Relentless - you have no idea how much that tiny snippet has helped with what I was working on - the last three days racing I've been on a roll the likes of which I haven't seen for a couple of years.
Thanks! |
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No problem Stevie, you're more than welcome.
With reference to the 'intuition' comment, search 'thin slicing' on G00gle if you're interested in how it manifests itself. |
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This is the book I read. It makes sense to me.
http://www.gladwell.com/blink/index.html Ever thought...'I had a feeling that would win'? |
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Just always remember Steve, you're always just dutching below value odds which, in turn, will just give you below value odds for no matter what limited section of the field you are dutching.
In the long run that cannot win for you mathematically. You still always have to find value somewhere, somehow. Your approach is still resulting in a greater than 100 % overall book, no matter how you dress it up. |
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YLB, the disciples of 'value' always seem to forget that there is value in not betting; the bookmaker doesn't (generally) have this option.
I could, in theory, back the maths, secure in the knowledge that the edge against me is 1.5% but knowing that I will opt out out of 1 in 20 bets. This changes the odds against to, potentially, odds on. |
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I wish I could say that I understand what you are saying.
How does "opting out " change anything at all ?. Are you saying that because I can chose if and when I want to bet, and the bookie can't, that it somehow changes things ? If so, I don't understand the maths of that argument at all, I'm afraid to say. How does that effect the odds if and when I do bet, which is the only thing that really matters after all?. |
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Relentless - sorry only just seen this, will check out the references you gave later.
YLB, I take your point, but if Relentless is saying what I think he's saying about not betting, then the following example bears him out: Today there were were 19 UK races. I considered 8 of them were worth dutching. All 8 won, for a total profit of around 34% on my stakes after commission. Of the 11 that I didn't do, I'd have lost on 6, and I've had made a loss overall. Can I stress I don't think I've found the holy grail (done that too many times) and I'm well aware that there will be periods of losses due to, well, all the things that cause losing runs plus good old fashioned bad luck. That's why I'm going to town on the banking and staking plans too. If it goes t1ts up it goes t1ts up - in the meantime I'll enjoy it. |
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Steve
All you did really was successfully selectively chose your races. You didn't change the "value " of your bets in any form or manner by being so selective, unless your race selection criteria are based on " value " inputs which are objective and consistently correct ( and more important seemingly unknwn to the market makers ). That is, in essence your selection criteria are apparently giving you an " edge ". The " dutching " per se is not why you are profiting, it is the " race selection " that is generating the profits. I hope you can sustain your " edge " forever. |
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Not as much as I do!
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Perhaps there was a freak run of faves winning today, assuming the fave is one of your selections?
Some days the first or second fave win every non-hcap race between them, I wouldn't be holding my breath for long term success if I was you Steve, but GL. |
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I agree with YLB, you do need an edge. You can never be sure of your edge on any individual runner, of course.
The advantage of dutching is that if you select, say, three runners where you think you have an edge on each of them, you might get an edge overall even though there is no value in one of the bets. That's why bookies can sometimes overprice a winning horse but still make a profit on the race. |
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Just to say stevie the greyhound market offers good oppurtunities small fiels decent odds but only problem not much liquidty
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YLB, I understand your point but I don't necessarily agree. I know the example I provide will upset some but here we go anyway.
We know that if we toss a coin it's even money heads or tails. We also know that the more we toss the coin, the closer we get to 50% heads - 50% tails. If we tossed the coin 1,000 times, how many times would it have to come up heads before you considered even money tails to be value? 600? 700? 800? |
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By the way - good days work Stevie. Wish I could do that.
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Relentless
I think you already know what my answer is, so I won't even say it. I think the essence of your question is where we basically differ on these types of matters. |
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I don't know your answer...how could I? But if you have one I'd be interested to read it.
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I did stress that it may have been very good luck the first three days - and today would point to that...2 losses from 4 selected races out of the first three at Fontwell and at M Rasen. After that I "retired from the action" as Clive Holt memorably put it in that book - you know when it's not going to be a good day...
... or so I thought, until I caught up with this thread and saw gstreetblue's post about the dogs, and you know what - he's right! With a bit of tweaking of the spreadsheet - I got back the racing losses, hit my target and tomorrow's target too. Nice one, gstreet! |
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Stevie Strikes
You must have had to bump up the stakes to get those horse racing losses back so did you encounter any problems with liquidity on the dogs that gstreetblues referred to in an earlier post? |
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Relentless
Ever heard of gambler's fallacy ? If not , google it. Then you will know my answer. |
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YLB, ever heard of chaos theory? If not then that's probably why you don't wish to answer.
I'll ask a different question: would you rather take 2.01 tails on a single toss of the coin or 2.0 tails 5,000 times (+/-5%) out of 10,000 tosses? |
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top2rated 31 Mar 03:41
Stevie Strikes You must have had to bump up the stakes to get those horse racing losses back so did you encounter any problems with liquidity on the dogs that gstreetblues referred to in an earlier post? No, but then I might be embarrassed to tell you of the total stake I'm betting at. I mean it ain't quite 3 figures. |
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Posted by Relentless
YLB, the disciples of 'value' always seem to forget that there is value in not betting; the bookmaker doesn't (generally) have this option. Is this a typo or deliberate mistake? Bookmakers always have this option! You have been here since 2002. How have you missed this I wonder! |
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If operating conventionally - obviously.
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Stevie, I had three dutches to c20% all won - two place backs both lost - one football multiple won.....lost on the day.
How are you getting on? |
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Hi Relentless,
In figures, I'm getting on like this: Dutching Dog and Horse Races, from 26th March to 5th APril incl. ...........Stakes........Returns....Profit on stakes (after comm.) Horses...£4,722.45.....£238.32....5.05% Dogs.....£2,693.84.....£187.27....6.95% ...........Bets..........Wins.......Win Rate Horses...133...........98.........73.68% Dogs.....119...........98.........82.35% The betting bank started at £86.66 on 26/3 and I'm keeping at around £300.00 now, withdrawing any profits until I'm more sure about what I'm doing. (I'm not doing any other betting - need to get back confidence to touch football again) As has been mentioned above, this is all about being selective in what you bet on. I haven't got figures for my selection rate (should keep them really) - but I reckon it's about 50% of horse races I look at, and a bit more for dogs. I've found aiming for 20% to 50% profit in horse races is about right, and I'm working on 10% to 50% on dog races. Other factors I use for selecting a race to bet on (for anyone looking at this - I'll say again that I don't study form, so the only guide I have is the market. You'll understand if I don't give away the tolerances I've been playing with.) In no particular order... 1. Health of Market (amount traded, over-round) - particularly with dogs. 2. Share of total market to dutch. 3. Price movements. There's no "BET/DON'T BET" flag on the spreadsheet - but there's a lot of conditional formatting so I can get a 'feel' by looking at the pretty colours! I also set a daily target and have a stop loss figure on the bank. If anyone's interested enough for updates, shout here. |
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gl with this Stevie, are you using some software to place the bets/work the stakes out or doing it via the main interface? cheers
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Hello reyes,
No, no software. I highlight the market in Betfair, [Ctrl]+C to copy, then press a button I've put on the spreadsheet, which runs macros to put in the new information and store the last paste, so a picture of the market builds up. In excel, I have a tab for jumps, a tab for flat and a tab for dogs. I just copy and delete them as I need so there's one for each current race; and I have a tab open for each current race in betfair. The good thing is you only have to highlight the Betfair market once. Refresh follwed by copy copies all the changes. When it's time to bet, I franticly enter the figures in manually (chasing any shortening odds down if I have to). It might bew worth trying to automate that bit. |
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It might bew worth trying to automate that bit.
sounds like it! Haven't used it but think gruss (or prob most of the other api apps) can do this donkey work for you? gl |
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Thanks Reyes,
(Today's target hit. 13 dog races, 10 selected, 9 won, 5.38% profit on stakes after comm.) :) |