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General Betting
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28 Mar 10
21:54
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Date Joined:
02 Jun 04
Noticed this alot over the weekend, generally on the footy I only lay at the highest odds being offered by online bookmakers, not everything gets matched but if the bets are up early enough the majority do in good markets.
Off the top of my head I can name 3 from this weekends games, Everton, Norwich and Millwall were all lower to lay (nevermind back) than with the bookmakers but there were more. 6 months ago you were lucky to find one or two all weekend, now its 10/15 a Saturday.
Is there an obivous reason I'm missing?
Off the top of my head I can name 3 from this weekends games, Everton, Norwich and Millwall were all lower to lay (nevermind back) than with the bookmakers but there were more. 6 months ago you were lucky to find one or two all weekend, now its 10/15 a Saturday.
Is there an obivous reason I'm missing?
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Replies: 16
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It's likely not correcting itself because the difference in arbing it would get lost as betfair commission anyway a lot of the time.
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ror, any premium charge payer on sub 3% commission would actually reduce their total charges by doing this due to the commission generated calculations working in their favour.
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clacher, do you do this manually or with a bot? Seems like a dangerous thing to do manually as you'll always get caught out when the odds move against you.
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Yes, Betfairs high commission rates are factoring in to how high layers now go on N/A sports.
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I just dont understand who it is thats backing at these prices ror.
Perhaps theres just a monkey in Hills/365 (two biggest offenders) laying over the odds. When I isolate all the prices I've laid folk on here that are easily beat elsewhere, it doesnt seem to make a huge difference overall in terms of P/L, its just been bugging me this past month. |
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ror: to give an example related to cross market trading which I saw you refer to in another thread:
Someone paying less than 3% commission and paying premium charges would do well by laying one goal or more at 1.08 and laying 0-0 at 13.5 for equal liability. Although they would have a GP of £0 on this trade and a net loss after commission, the commission paid would be less than the amount saved in Premium Charges. |
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When I isolate all the prices I've laid folk on here that are easily beat elsewhere,
It's almost impossible to get bets on at non-exchanges elsewhere for more than a few weeks though. It's getting more ridiculous by the month. |
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Investor: Interesting, so the more commission you pay, you avoid *even more* premium charge? That sounds bizarre but I'll take your word for it. (I don't have experience with PC but I've heard it's a strange system :) )
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Only if your original % is low enough... which for most pc payers it isn't (but the kinds of people Investor is talking about for this thread would be low enough of course)
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Possibly one of the reasons Lori, the three teams I mentioned in the OP were likely heavily to have backed with the bookmakers as they were on here, it is always the fav in the market that ends up trading below whats on offer elsewhere.
The Investor, laying my teams manually atm, no need for a bot, I'm quick enough ;) I dont auto-lay everything on the coupon at the bookies odds, I can see how somebody doing that could be caught out, I pick my teams and my prices (use the books as a nudging guide often) and lay from there, was just an observation that since Febuary theres dozens more teams being backed at poor odds (nevermind coms+PC on the backers winnings) on here. |
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*likely to have been heavily backed
Got a big bowl of Choc + Vanilla cheesecake to deal with here. |
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dont think this is anything new, but dont have any stats on it
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Nah it aint new, been happeneing since the dawn of Betfair, just seems to be happening alot more this past month.
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Also Premium Charges offer no benefit at all, whereas commission gives you points which in turn reduce commission, so paying more commission is preferable to paying PC.
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Lori 28 Mar 22:17
Only if your original % is low enough... which for most pc payers it isn't (but the kinds of people Investor is talking about for this thread would be low enough of course) Correct. The threshold is still lower for any PC payer than for someone on the same commission rate not paying PC. For instance a PC payer on 5% commission could back at 1.11 in one market and lay at 1.1 in another market that is practically identical (an opportunity that's difficult to find, but anomalies far greater than this occur). Although this would be a complete waste of time for someone on 5% that doesn't pay PC, the PC payer benefits by reducing overall charges as well as gaining commission points to help him reduce the commission paid in the future. There's also the opportunity cost to consider. Tying up the bank in this way may mean sacrificing profit in return for a relatively small benefit. |
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Haven't noticed a trend for this increasing. If anything its actually to less of an extent than it used to be, since the books are quicker to get in line with the betfair market than they used to be thanks to the plethora of arbers out there.
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