Something Ive noticed this season although I place less extent on it then you do. I think its a perceived weakness issue about Arsenal. Memories of last seasons Champions League semi-finals still linger and so on.
Theyve lost both their "big" league games so far (both Manchesters) but both have been a little unlucky and both away. Arsenals Premier League challenge will be largely sorted by their fixture list in January and February (Everton, Man Utd and Liverpool at home plus Bolton, Aston Villa, Chelsea and Stoke away.) If you dont think they'll struggle much between now and them could be worth a opening back bet with a view to a trade and see how you feel about at Christmas time. Potential profit will be cut but it will give you more options outs etc. Id be less confident about the Liverpool trading idea though. Something genuinely isnt right with that team at the moment and winning the Prem looks a step to far in my view. I understand that if they beat Man Utd next week things could look different but even if they do win, your potential profit wont be as much as what you could have got by simply winning the match itself. Personally Id wait to see what the odds were for that market beforehand.
Dont get me wrong, Im not trying to knock your observation at all, just trying to see why (rightly or wrongly) the market is acting this way.
Tom,Something Ive noticed this season although I place less extent on it then you do. I think its a perceived weakness issue about Arsenal. Memories of last seasons Champions League semi-finals still linger and so on.Theyve lost both their "big" leag
there isn't anything seriously wrong, just the results, daft individual mistakes (mascherano v chelsea) and beach balls
but from 1 month ago they are only 1 more point off the top
and sorry if that was misleading about liverpool, it was not recommending to back that price, just that it's a bit big all things considered
there isn't anything seriously wrong, just the results, daft individual mistakes (mascherano v chelsea) and beach ballsbut from 1 month ago they are only 1 more point off the topand sorry if that was misleading about liverpool, it was not recommendi
Tom, Did you see either the Man Utd or Arsenal games? Man United didn't 'scrape' another win. They battered Bolton and only a string of outstanding saves from Jaaskelinen kept it colse. Radio reports said Birmingham were very unlucky to lose by 2.
Just a bit of perspective. I'd say the market is about spot on. Arsenal have no experience. I'd back Ferguson's men over Wenger's babies on the long season 100 times out of 100.
Tom,Did you see either the Man Utd or Arsenal games?Man United didn't 'scrape' another win. They battered Bolton and only a string of outstanding saves from Jaaskelinen kept it colse.Radio reports said Birmingham were very unlucky to lose by 2.Just a
No worries on the Liverpool thing, fair play to you for mentioning it. When I say something is wrong with Liverpool, it was firmly in the context of "Premiership winning standard" then "the club is in crisis" kind of context. :)
In this context, in my view, something genuinely doesnt look like it did last season. The cliche comment is Alonso's departure but Im not sure that is the entire explanation. I have a suspicion teams have adjusted to Liverpool somewhat this season. Defensively, Liverpool look a little less confident plus this is at a time when Reina has pulled off many top saves already.
Genuine question here, how would yuo price it up right now?
Tom,No worries on the Liverpool thing, fair play to you for mentioning it. When I say something is wrong with Liverpool, it was firmly in the context of "Premiership winning standard" then "the club is in crisis" kind of context. :)In this context, i
and onto liverpool, my view is different to most liverpool fans (or what they have been told to think by the media). it's not alonso going that is the main problem but the injury to fabio aurellio, this goes unnoticed because the fans love insua even though he is a very average defender.
carragher being gone at the game but with no competition doesn't help, carragher headbutting skrtle didn't help either. (agger back now so he will have to buck up or be dropped)
and not getting any points when not playing well for whatever reason is another thing, mainly to the odd refs decision or silly mistake from a player, i'll carry on later :)
3.1 che3.3 mu4.5 ars9 mc12 livand onto liverpool, my view is different to most liverpool fans (or what they have been told to think by the media). it's not alonso going that is the main problem but the injury to fabio aurellio, this goes unnoticed be
Thats a 104% book... need to push out a price or two there first! :)
Im not having a go at you here, just that you might find it beneficial to get your book on this market as close to 100% as you can 9whatever method you use) so that you can make the "optimum" choice.
Reason I say this is that around this time last season, I raised a thread pondering about the value in backing Arsenal to win the Prem at around odds of 24.0 (IIRC). Funnily enough, this was the week before they beat Man Utd 2-1 at home (still cant believe I got 3.85 on Arsenal to win that one!)
The thing was though, by discussing the potential back of Arsenal for the Prem on the thread, whilst many people were very dismissive of it and I still didnt change my opinion at the time, it did make me think more deeply about my book on it and invesitgate a better way of exploiting my original observation. Sure enough, I found I was simply better off laying Chelsea (around 1.98) instead of backing Arsenal. (This isnt after-timing by the way, it was all posted on the thread beforehand!)
Tom,Thats a 104% book... need to push out a price or two there first! :)Im not having a go at you here, just that you might find it beneficial to get your book on this market as close to 100% as you can 9whatever method you use) so that you can make
and back on liverpool, 15 points is maybe what most people would say they deserve, they haven't got any 'lucky' points, which i think by one way or another the other teams have.
it's very hard to get this point across without it sounding like moaning, actually had a list of undeserved points for the others typed out :)
3.153.34.71113and back on liverpool, 15 points is maybe what most people would say they deserve, they haven't got any 'lucky' points, which i think by one way or another the other teams have. it's very hard to get this point across without it soun
and back on liverpool, 15 points is maybe what most people would say they deserve, they haven't got any 'lucky' points, which i think by one way or another the other teams have.
it's very hard to get this point across without it sounding like moaning, actually had a list of undeserved points for the others typed out :)
3.153.34.71113and back on liverpool, 15 points is maybe what most people would say they deserve, they haven't got any 'lucky' points, which i think by one way or another the other teams have. it's very hard to get this point across without it soun
and back on liverpool, 15 points is maybe what most people would say they deserve, they haven't got any "lucky" points, which i think by one way or another the other teams have.
it's very hard to get this point across without it sounding like moaning, actually had a list of undeserved points for the others typed out :)
3.153.34.71113and back on liverpool, 15 points is maybe what most people would say they deserve, they haven't got any "lucky" points, which i think by one way or another the other teams have. it's very hard to get this point across without it soun
With those prices being your book, then backing Arsenal is probably yuor best play here, especially given the ante-post nature of the market.
Technically, Liverpool is a back too but your margin is a little thin here, especially as your book is balanced out (rightly or wrongly) by giving everyone outside the "big 5" zero chance whatsoever (plus a tiny amount on the lay side of Chelsea.)
At the time of writing, Arsenal are 5.5 to back (4k available) but you're almost certain to get matched at 5.6 and wouldnt be surprised if you got matched at 5.7 or 5.8 over the next two or three days or so.
Regardless, good luck with it.
Tom,With those prices being your book, then backing Arsenal is probably yuor best play here, especially given the ante-post nature of the market.Technically, Liverpool is a back too but your margin is a little thin here, especially as your book is ba
was matched @ 7 with good old sly bet for plenty yesterday
i had another thread on here from the spring where i got a green book on the ante post prices, could've been a lot better too with a bit of luck
was matched @ 7 with good old sly bet for plenty yesterdayi had another thread on here from the spring where i got a green book on the ante post prices, could've been a lot better too with a bit of luck
Thanks for the ttt'd thread. I vaguely remember it at the time.
You should have some nice coinage to collect at the end of the season, but like someone said on that thread, you need to include your opportunity cost into tie-ing your money up for that long (not just the spurned tiny interest in the bank but other potential betting opportunities.
P.S You must have got a really big price on Villa to show a 96% return! :)
Tom,Thanks for the ttt'd thread. I vaguely remember it at the time.You should have some nice coinage to collect at the end of the season, but like someone said on that thread, you need to include your opportunity cost into tie-ing your money up for t
With those prices being your book, then backing Arsenal is probably yuor best play here, especially given the ante-post nature of the market.
Technically, Liverpool is a back too but your margin is a little thin here, especially as your book is balanced out (rightly or wrongly) by giving everyone outside the "big 5" zero chance whatsoever (plus a tiny amount on the lay side of Chelsea.)
At the time of writing, Arsenal are 5.5 to back (4k available) but you're almost certain to get matched at 5.6 and wouldnt be surprised if you got matched at 5.7 or 5.8 over the next two or three days or so.
Regardless, good luck with it.
Whoever was trying to lay around 4k on the Gunners at 5.5 has now moved it out to 5.7 (partly because Man Utd have drifted a tick.)
Anyone who can get matched at 6.0 (or higher?) at any point between now and when the Man City (v Wigan) match kicks off is getting value in my view. ;)
JPG 17 Oct 21:01Tom,With those prices being your book, then backing Arsenal is probably yuor best play here, especially given the ante-post nature of the market.Technically, Liverpool is a back too but your margin is a little thin here, especially as
Absoulutely no way should they be favs. I suppose its because they 'have the best squad' but the people saying that been saying it for years and all they won during that time was an FA Cup and a Rumbelows.
Quite strange imo, i'd say for 80% of the time since Summer 2006 , they have been rated as the best team in England ,as indicated by Outright Odds or Match Odds , but clearly United have been the best since then pretty much throughout, while Arsenal and Liverpool have been equal to them at times also.
Favs in 2008/09 with the same team not good enough the year before.
Favs again 2009/10 with same team yet again , and now already beaten twice this season despite an easier fixture list than rivals, and banned from signing players ! , and they are still favourites as i type this :D
They just seem to be forgiven everything by their backers .I think it goes back to 2004-06 when they were actually the best team under Mourinho, they were overated then imo. They were the best team , but hardly different class to United + Arsenal (just more consistent at that time) but they were rated as just about the best team in Football History ( even Kevin Pullein said they were :0 ) , around 2/5 for the Title in August 2006 ,with United 7/1 .The people who fell for this stuff at the time cannot revise downwards their estimate of Chelsea far enough without admitting they got it way wrong back then.
Chelsea so overated, and have been for years.Absoulutely no way should they be favs. I suppose its because they 'have the best squad' but the people saying that been saying it for years and all they won during that time was an FA Cup and a Rumbelows.
In all seriousness, if anyone is compelled to lay Hull at 6.4 for their Monday Night Match Id really appreciate it, been waiting for that bet to get matched all day!
Tom Petty is God 18 Oct 01:04you're driving the price out aren't youYeah..... but which way??? :)In all seriousness, if anyone is compelled to lay Hull at 6.4 for their Monday Night Match Id really appreciate it, been waiting for that bet to get matc
I agree Arsenal underated , largely because of the cliches pundits believe in about 'grinding out 1-0 wins' being the way teams win titles.
That is rubbish really ,as teams with an unusually high proportion of 1 goal wins are just lucky ,and title winners will need to destroy a lot of sides so that luck don't come into it.
I agree Arsenal underated , largely because of the cliches pundits believe in about 'grinding out 1-0 wins' being the way teams win titles.That is rubbish really ,as teams with an unusually high proportion of 1 goal wins are just lucky ,and title win
Absoulutely no way should they be favs. I suppose its because they 'have the best squad' but the people saying that been saying it for years and all they won during that time was an FA Cup and a Rumbelows.
Quite strange imo, i'd say for 80% of the time since Summer 2006 , they have been rated as the best team in England ,as indicated by Outright Odds or Match Odds , but clearly United have been the best since then pretty much throughout, while Arsenal and Liverpool have been equal to them at times also.
Favs in 2008/09 with the same team not good enough the year before.
Favs again 2009/10 with same team yet again , and now already beaten twice this season despite an easier fixture list than rivals, and banned from signing players ! , and they are still favourites as i type this
They just seem to be forgiven everything by their backers .I think it goes back to 2004-06 when they were actually the best team under Mourinho, they were overated then imo. They were the best team , but hardly different class to United + Arsenal (just more consistent at that time) but they were rated as just about the best team in Football History ( even Kevin Pullein said they were ) , around 2/5 for the Title in August 2006 ,with United 7/1 .The people who fell for this stuff at the time cannot revise downwards their estimate of Chelsea far enough without admitting they got it way wrong back then.
Tob,
This sums up the whole "betting conumdrum" for me. With regards to your quoted post above, I dont think Ive ever seen a post on this forum, to this extent, that Ive simultaneously agreed and disagreed with!!!
Your opening comment I thought was wrong.
However, after reading your further comments, I cant disagree. How can such a disconnect exist?!? :)
Id guess the reason is that the whole dynamic of the comeptition is "fluid." I actually believe the Chelsea team of 06/07 was the best team in the Prem even though Man Utd won it. However, even if that is true, it doesnt justify the "respect" shown towards Chelsea in the last two seasons though.
One significant caveat might actually be the (perceived at least) decline of the Premierships overall dominance in European football. Although this almost certain to be an overplayed feature in the media and general perception, its not completely without merit.
If this "premiership decline" is genuine, then it would partly explain the mix of the EPL win market right now. No-one quite knows what to make of it. If its true, it means its a little trickier then usual but also,.... more opportunity!
If you dont mind me asking, have you changed any teams ratings on your scale purely because of this weekends results so far?
tobermory 18 Oct 01:13Chelsea so overated, and have been for years.Absoulutely no way should they be favs. I suppose its because they 'have the best squad' but the people saying that been saying it for years and all they won during that time was an F
This season i have marked United down a bit since August, maybe Liverpool should be dropped too.
Its a fair point that Chelsea may have been better than United in 2006/07 , though i'd have made them equals, certainly by the middle of the season.
The main thing is i think they were never that much better when they were the best . They were rather flattered by the points margins in 2005 + 2006 imo . I recall Scoles (or maybe Giggs?) saying in Summer 2006 that he felt United were just as good as them, and being branded a sore loser , but i agreed with that. I felt that Chelsea were just more consistent at that time ( and they were a bit better yes) , that there absolute best was only marginally superior to the absolute best of United,Arsenal.
I always take the view that it is much easier for a brilliant, but erratic, team, to acheive consistency, than it is for a good, consistent , but rather un-brilliant team (say Aston Villa) to acheive brilliance, which is necessary to challenge for Titles.
I haven't changed teams ratings this weekThis season i have marked United down a bit since August, maybe Liverpool should be dropped too.Its a fair point that Chelsea may have been better than United in 2006/07 , though i'd have made them equals, cer
got the book like this after having too much faith in liverpool or one of the others to make a challenge
chelsea 8.217 % man utd 9.669% arsenal 6.294%
rest dont matter but a couple of results for villa over christmas could've seen handsome profits all round
nice to find a sensble thread about football
i did something like this toogot the book like this after having too much faith in liverpool or one of the others to make a challengechelsea 8.217 %man utd 9.669%arsenal 6.294%rest dont matter but a couple of results for villa over christmas could've
Shame as i've done pretty well on the market previous 5 years or so.I would have been max red on Chelsea for this one, any othr result would have been good
don't have one :(was penniless in AugustShame as i've done pretty well on the market previous 5 years or so.I would have been max red on Chelsea for this one, any othr result would have been good
i think if a certain fat spaniard had spent 17 million or so on a striker (instead of another flop italian)and taught his team how head the **ing ball in the net. this season could've been a classic 4 horse race
i think if a certain fat spaniard had spent 17 million or so on a striker (instead of another flop italian)and taught his team how head the **ing ball in the net. this season could've been a classic 4 horse race
i was also very surprised at how long 1.01 lasted on utd to finish top 4, sadly funds were not available to take it all myself
chelsea shouldn't be on the board either now imo
anyone with 3k handy should make an easy £28
for those who care now stands atman utd +9.968chelsea +6.609arsenal +7.183i was also very surprised at how long 1.01 lasted on utd to finish top 4, sadly funds were not available to take it all myselfchelsea shouldn't be on the board either now imoa
i was also very surprised at how long 1.01 lasted on utd to finish top 4, sadly funds were not available to take it all myself
chelsea shouldn't be on the board either now imo
anyone with 3k handy should make an easy £28
for those who care now stands atman utd +9.968chelsea +6.609arsenal +7.183i was also very surprised at how long 1.01 lasted on utd to finish top 4, sadly funds were not available to take it all myselfchelsea shouldn't be on the board either now imoa