General Betting
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I have 5 great football picks for tommorow with odds of 1.66, 1.28, 1.73, 1.65. 1.8.
I will be using just £10.00 to bet on these games, does anyone have any opinion on what the best staking to use would be?
level stakes? get a couple wrong - no profit!
Multiples? get one wrong no profit!
Any experienced football gamblers with some advice?
Many thanks
I will be using just £10.00 to bet on these games, does anyone have any opinion on what the best staking to use would be?
level stakes? get a couple wrong - no profit!
Multiples? get one wrong no profit!
Any experienced football gamblers with some advice?
Many thanks
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Replies: 56
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5 £2 fourfolds will show a small profit for 4 correct. Anything less than that barely seems worth it!
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yeah you are right does hardly seem worth it but very confident of getting correct results
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Not my scene but you can also play 4x2.50 4-folds if you think the 1.28 is a banker.
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or there is always a progressive staking plan.... or maybe not!!
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Would you be happy at being able to turn your £10 into £15 ? If so you already know the answer I think.
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If you're trying to generate a profit on five 4/6 shots when you get a couple wrong, you're going to find it difficult.
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Lori, that certainly is the issue, I am 99% certain on them all after some good research but there is always the chance of 1 or 2 going wrong
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Just level bet them and take your medicine if a couple lose imo.
You could put the three smallest prices in a treble and the two largest in a double if you wanted more risk for better payouts and just hope the two losers aren't one from each bet, but at the end of the day it'll work out the same in the long run. |
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"but at the end of the day it'll work out the same in the long run"
that is what I have been trying to get my head around, are multiples or singles best or is it the same in the long run |
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It's the same.
For someone with a large bank, calculating their risk/reward, they may be able to wrangle the numbers so they can stake slightly bigger and hence lock in a long term better position. In your position where you're looking to bet a tenner, and the best way to bet it it's the same. I guess if you have a small edge, which you say you do, then you're slightly better off betting the five team acca as you'll be able to stake more on later games due to the nature of how acca's work multiplying your edge through. Basically though, they're the same. |
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Level stakes only. 3 wins probably break even, 4 or 5 show a profit, less than three a loss but you would deserve that. The likelyhood of all 5 is around 10/1 so be realistic.
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It really depends on whether you're after maximizing your EG or your EV.
Ken's method almost certainly maximizes your EG, while betting all five in an acca almost certainly maximizes your EV. Of course if you don't have an edge, then those are reversed. |
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ok making sense, thanks
Ken - have to agree of you get three wrong then betting really isnt the game to be looking at, I expect all 5 but there is always thar chance something goes wrong. Long term level stakes seems the more likely betting to a percentage of bank "when" bank grows |
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..Trouble is it's very boring !
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"I am 99% certain on them all"
Then get as much money as you can and put it on. That's some fairly impressive value. It brings up the question: why do you only have 10 dollars? |
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because 99% certain on paper looks great but in reality who knows, starting small with this then see how it goes, confident though but cautious
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It's not possible for anything to look 99% certain, but I know what you mean.
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I suppose I mean looks 100% certain as if I wasn't 100% certain then why bet on it!
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does anybody know what kind of S/R I would need at these kind of odds to be profitable long term? (maths not strong point!)
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WhereisHarry 12 Mar 11:12
I suppose I mean looks 100% certain as if I wasn't 100% certain then why bet on it! Because the odds are in your favour perhaps? |
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What are your 5 picks Harry?
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I'll give out my 5 picks sometime today, just want to put them on first after I have worked out what staking to go for!
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Your average price is about 1.62 so you would need about 62% strike rate to break even, the rest you should be able to work out yourself. GL as I think you will need it.
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thanks Ken, 62% is probably achievable, any higher well just have to see!
if only I could get higher odds! shame that my picks are never likely to go inplay |
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would anybody with any confidence recommend a progressive staking plan for this?
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Increase stake by 1 point after a loser, decrease by one point after a winner. The (inevitable) losing run is the problem.
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sounds resonable, I suupose the problem with it is though that with football many matches kick off at the same time, maybe several banks is an option
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I know of no progressive staking plan that would cater for more than one pick playing at the same time. GL.
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thanks Ken
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have a look at the odds of laying the opposing teams in an acca
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bf usually have a promo with cash back for 1 wrong for insurance
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bin it you know one will let u down,level stakes and if u r good you profit if not u lose end of its a no brainer,ive noticed this new craze of multiples its ** bookies dream,if its 99% it profits level steaks,put u r bets up i will lay them
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Picks are:-
Caen FC Twente Excelsior De Gracfshap Cartagena |
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Whereisharry, Jesus man, i remember you from a couple of years ago, talking about going full time with a 100 grand bank and then trying to get people to send you money for a syndicate you wanted to run, now you are asking advice what staking you need for a poxy £10 bet, get a grip you loser!!!!
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listen to ken..he's shrewd
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ok will do, good start anyway seems all 5 have won
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WhereisHarry 16 Feb 12:46
Hi, I am looking to for people to join a mini syndicate that I am starting, basic the rules are:- everbody places a 5 bet on whatever their selection is a bet is placed each day with the stakes rising by a pound a day the days winning are split between all members at the end of each day so there is no need to have a holding bank This is a system that will provide some decent pocket money for all members and with time could well earn decent profits as everyone is only concentrating on one bet a day so there is less chance of fatigue becoming a factor and mistakes being made. I am looking for about 20 members, so if anyone is interested please let me know All that would be required for you to do is post your days bet on here and the price matched at and of course please be honest! what became of this venture? |
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well it wasn't a great idea!!
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:)
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