General Betting
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Betfair previously stated they would not introduce x matching on horse racing markets. It is now happening.
Does this spell the end of lucky users getting 1,000 when requesting 10.0?
Does this spell the end of lucky users getting 1,000 when requesting 10.0?
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They state best execution still applies.
So why are they introducing this on the in-play horse racing markets? How does this affect horse racing inrunning bots? |
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Anyone who watches the in running markets knows the book %'s go over and underround continually so it's bound to be a nice earner for them. They can only do it on the in running markets cos they know the reduction factors don't apply in running so as long as they knock them out of the calculations they'll clean up. Pre off they know they'll get taken to the cleaners with people manipulating the prices of non runners still in the market.
It'll be interesting to see the activity in markets where they haven't removed non runners to see how they handle the situation or if they just omit to turn it on. Looks like it'll put a lot of bots out of business and add to Betfairs overflowing coffers |
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jesus: care to explain how betfair profit from this? regardless of overround or underround betfair just take the commission from the winnings. How does this change that formula?
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Betfair don't match to an exactly 100% so they always make a small % over the 100% those %'s increase the lower down the ladder the matches occur as they will only bet match to valid odds on the ladder. Even though those %'s may be small the amounts of money they match will be vast and soon add up
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I've bumped CB29's post on the matter.
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they will make a fortune!
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It'll be a bonus for the on course players and hooverers ,make life a lot easier to hoover up all money on every runner rather than taking the queue up to 1000 or down to 1.01.
Should mean an end to any lucky 1000 backers like Muqbil said too but on the flipside it'll protect those fat fingered on course players giving away those 1000/1's in error, at least any errors will be matched at better odds now. |
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does this mean you will always get matched at the price you ask for? ie if you lay a 2 chance @5 - hoping to get matched lower - you will always get matched @ 5?
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This is very short notice for this trial! I'd have thought they'd have given at least a weeks notice that they were going to trial this, or have i missed a previous announcement?
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From what i can make of it on course players will hold an even bigger advantage if this is implemented.
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as Ghetto Joe has already said, i really should take more notice of other posts.
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sounds like an advantage to the bigger players as well to me - at the moment they cant cover all bases but now bf will do it for them
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Cross matching is about the only good thing ever to come out of betfair towers. Given betfair's diddy interface, I commend whoever it was that implemented it. Please get it working in the post race markets.
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Should have guessed some pro hooverer like you would have been all for it, Feck.
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That's black propoganda Joe. I intend to sioux.
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Is this going to hit the pro fast feed/live merchants, the botters or the minnows?
My gut feeling is the botters will get crucified which is good (cant stand bots myself) then the minnows whilst the fast feed/live merchants could even be better off. |
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Another step closer to the end of Punter v Punter Betting. :(
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first race? How did it go for any bot runners, or are they switched of for now? ;)
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off*
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I had the same feelings as you CB, to the word.
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i agree they are just taking a free lunch of botters and having a slap up lunch themself,it should be on the 2.10 race at carlisle.
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yes i'm doing well today it's only running at Carlisle and Sedgefield
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so a view from the untrained eye, big gaps in prices and the book didn't ever go below 100%
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Book in the 2-10 went over 120% lots of times. Fewer layers?
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that 2.30 race at Sedge would have been extremely profitable for betfair i'm sure
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I agree w/ Clydebank's sense of who will feel this in which order.
Muqbil, it is (potentially very) advantageous for bf in that they do not promote the bet submitter's bet to 'best execution' in the sense of giving him the perfect reciprocal of the bet/bets submitted on other runners theoretically taken out by his offer. Rather, they improve the bet submitted to the closest price point(s) on their ladder under the true reciprocal price. Then they pocket the breakage. In a fast-moving market like IR horses, the effect will be to deprive those who take advantage of price collapses/peaks within individual runner sub-markets. I really don't want them to implement the change and don't care about market clearance in the absolute. |
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Ghetto Joe is right too.
The market becomes broader in the case of sudden price movements, so fastest finger players will be getting a better price at the expense of tactical price-takers (many of whom are bots). |
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Although there are very few races to go by (just two meetings) at a glance it doesn't appear that the cross matching is hitting my bots- even those that are going for the same money as the X matcher.
Make no mistake though- if this does remove over-round correcting bots that is very bad news for manual punters. This is because bots that take this money are obliged to do so by offering prices closer to a 100% book that are available, BF will not face this problem as their bot will run without the IR delay and that will mean your chances of being matched at a better price than you've asked for will be drastically reduced. Many people use a price over-ride and depend on there being a better offer going into the market as they submit, they will be absolutely stuffed by this change. Intelligently written Bots are already designed in a way that takes advantage of the existing BF matching algorithms and will continue to be so however they are changed- they will not go away. I can understand why people are suspicious of bots, but trust me- you are MUCH better off betting against a "punter" botter (like me) than against betfair themselves. |
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People like to believe the hype about bots though robot, they all assume they get instant matches, make risk free cash with no bet unmatched , stick no actual liquidity into the market and beat the delays. Only one botter I can think of that does that.
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It matter to so many?
It matters not to so many? Spect BF will weigh it up and react accordingly. No change there then. |
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Well--if you're submitting a small bet, the overround scraping bot at the front of the queue (on a number of runners) is probably going to do you more favours than the cross-matcher.
If you're a trackside player betting big, w/ the cross-matcher you're going to get a lot more depth by virtue of that depth being spread out across multiple selections. I am interested that ayerobot is not affected (yet). Imv, it looks like another instance of a bf change favouring the winners/insiders, not the little guy. |
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If you haven't got fast pictures or automated software I wouldnt touch the markets anyway. Cant think of any other market where what I would call an ordinary user faces so much disadvantage to winning long term already.
Will it work like this hypothetical example? A 10 runner field. Punter backs horse 1 ir at 1.1. Betfair cross matching instantaneously offers all other 9 runners at 11. Horse 2 is matched at 11 and cross matched with a lay of horse 1 at 1.1. Horses 3 to 10 are all running for Betfair and Horse 3 wins. Betfair wins all stake money with the cross matching and not just the usual skimming of fractional percentages of stakes? This is obviously an odd scenario but certainly plausible given the volatility ir of these unique markets. |
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Does this mean that Betfair will now *always* take out non-runners before turning a market in-play?
If they don't (which is what often happens for late NRs), then the cross-matching logic is going to get completely baffled by betting on the NR. It's not the reduction factor that matters, its the fact that all the bets will be voided. I wonder if Betfair have thought this through fully? |
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Butterfies. That's what you is.
Betfair says vacate the premises or STFU. Mmmn looks like most have UTFS. And will always do. Wonder why that is? |