General Betting
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Was looking at dutching and was wondering what are peoples opinions on it as regards horse racing. Anyone have any experience
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first 2 in market win there fair share of races app 65%,but how would you stake this?
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ibrox
65% - that's only for non-handicaps isn't it? For handicaps, although the combined odds of the front 2 in the market are generally more favourable the strike rate drops to around 45%. |
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I used to dutch a lot, where 1st 2 are say 6/4 13/8 etc , back both to get exact same return on either - pays a lot - especially when doing 4 timers @ the bookies who pay best odds gauranteed - lots of drifters win and 9/4 to 3/1 makes a huge difference when you have it with 4 other winners :-)
Coral and Hills closed me down, thats why im here |
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Dutch betting is a must.
I've been betting for over 50 years and haven't come across anyone winning long term backing one horse a race. |
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Isn't that what laying a horse is ?
You're simply dutching all the others to win, without all the complicated effort of old. Nothing new in dutching. No value to be gained unless one of more of the individual prices are value. It all comes down to making value selections, no matter how you twist and turn. |
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Dutching has nothing to do with laying.
If you think a race has 3 chances say at 3/1....4/1.....9/1 3+1=4 divided into 100=25 4+1=5 divided into100 =20 9+1 =10 divided into 100=10 Bets are 25 units on 3/1.......20 units on 5/1........10 units on 9/1 and no matter which one wins the return is 100 units. |
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top2rated
not sure m8 was a guess,but dutching is an interesting way to pass a day have slowly moved away from horses racing lately,looking at my p@ L it was a no brainer,concentrate on fitbae backing 1.5 goals and laying draws,less stress and more profit. when i do have time to play the horses its a simple back fav and lay inrunning. 33%favs win(so trade shorter)70% favs place(so normally trade shorter)just cant get the staking right without chasing to much,but i love it will figure it out one day. |
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That old 'value' argument again. Let's assume that people only bet when they perceive there is value - I know that doesn't mean there actually is value - but one man's value is another man's non-value(?).
On that basis dutching is a good strategy. As previously mentioned that's what a bookmaker does and the whole idea is to get increased 'perceived value' on your side, usually by achieving odds on your selection(s). If your selections are rubbish then you will lose; ever it was thus - with any strategy. |
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reminds me of a bet I used to do (must start doing it again) pick 2 horses a race in 2 races at odds of around 3-1 and do 4 x £10 ew doubles. I used to do wel lat it, I will have to do some again, I will put up the next one I do on here.
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I used to dutch a lot, where 1st 2 are say 6/4 13/8 etc , back both to get exact same return on either - pays a lot - especially when doing 4 timers @ the bookies who pay best odds gauranteed - lots of drifters win and 9/4 to 3/1 makes a huge difference when you have it with 4 other winners :-)
Coral and Hills closed me down, thats why im here Wouldn't go wrong doing that, especially in maidens and other races that are extremely volatile. BOG is a massive loss leader in races like that. Will get accounts closed if doing it for more than peanuts though, of course. If you've got an edge, dutching is nearly essential (IMO) in order to smooth returns. If you don't have a genuine edge, it won't be any help to you. |
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late mail dutching and laying are effectively the same as youlittlebotty said, just done on different sides of the book.
In your example you are backing 3 horses to win, but equally, say in a field of 10, you could just lay the 7 you didn't fancy. |
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agree with TV
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Have been looking at that concept and they are far from the same .Take a 6 runner dog race you can dutch to win a point maybe 4 dogs but to lay one of the other 2 would lead to a far greater losss so no that is correct
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Why would you lay one of the other two dogs?
If you are backing 4 dogs then that is the same as laying the other two. |
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Sorry i think we are getting crosswires. What i meant if you were to just lay a dog or horse the liability would be greater than say dutching 3 0r 4 others. I am talking about them as seperate concepts.
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dutch bet Yakama, Motu, Hi Spec and Takitwo for 49.6% (2.01 or EVENS in old money)
9.20 Kempton |
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;)
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One system is to only Dutch 2nd, 3rd and 4th favs where the lowest odds are 5.2 for a total of £2.
14:20 Taunton Tue 26 Mar 2m3f Hcap Hrd Matched bets Order by matched date Back (Bet For) Odds Stake Profit Ref: 342753392696 Matched: 23:37 25-Mar-24 Kayf Legend 8.4 0.70 £5.18 Ref: 342753372815 Matched: 23:37 25-Mar-24 Winterwatch 8.8 £0.67 £5.23 Ref: 342753372816 Matched: 23:37 25-Mar-24 Asian Spice 9.2 £0.56 £4.59 Ref: 342753372817 Matched: 23:37 25-Mar-24 Asian Spice 9.6 £0.08 £0.69 Ref: 342753372817 Matched: 23:37 25-Mar-24 Then back the 1st fav. Time To Dazzle 3.35 £2.00 £4.70 This is my bet tomorrow. Double or better, depending on which one wins. Risk is an outsider(s) finish like a train, then you go bust! Dobbing the Dutch. |
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DADD bet!
Dobbing a Double Dutch. LOL |
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I never got a run from any of them. Down £4.01 but Southall is to come where I hope to recover the losses.
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As the O.P. says, " pros and cons ".
You just have to go with whatever works for "you". I suppose. |
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Am I repeating myself.
Jeez! That's ALL I need.  |
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Overall Assessment:
The Dutch bet spreads the risk across multiple selections, but it also reduces potential profits compared to simply backing one horse to win. The total stake for both the Dutch bets and the single bet on the 1st favourite is £3.83 (£1.83 for Dutching + £2 for backing the 1st favourite). The potential profit is between £4.59 and £15.40 if one of the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th favourites wins, or £5.70 if the 1st favourite wins. Ultimately, whether this strategy is value for money depends on your risk tolerance, confidence in the selections, and your desired level of potential profit. It's a strategy that spreads risk but may offer lower potential returns compared to simply betting on one horse to win. |
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I wouldn't get too caught up on the word 'dutching' but merely try to take positive expectation bets. This could mean betting one horse in the race or the whole field.
Another way of looking at it is that a good goal is to back the whole field for an OR under 100%, for as much money as possible. If within any two-second window, and for any reason or due to any combination of circumstances, you could back the whole field proportionately to a 95%, why wouldn't you? Say you could do for to a sum of £1,000. You would win £52 or just over in two seconds. Of course, the opportunities to do this are rare, and are harder to engineer than in the notional example. Otherwise every bettor with a computer would be very rich! |