General Betting
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24 Mar 10
13:10
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Date Joined:
24 Aug 07
Suppose you have two indepandent profitable systems which work in the same market. Do you attempt to combine the two or not?
Advantages of combining the two are better estimates of the edge and the elimination of low value bets where the systems oppose each other.
Advantages of keeping them seperate are it's easier to monitor how each is doing.
Any thoughts please.
Advantages of combining the two are better estimates of the edge and the elimination of low value bets where the systems oppose each other.
Advantages of keeping them seperate are it's easier to monitor how each is doing.
Any thoughts please.
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Replies: 14
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you're a**t
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You see, that's why we need a new forum. Any in case you were wondering, you won't be on it.
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confirmed**t :D
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This thread is for people who make a profit and have a useful contribution to make. And it's spelt**, not**t.
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Although I now see your point of using the extra t to be fair.
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Forgive my inexperience of posting obscenities.
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Afternoon PSII.
If the 2 systems are "independent".........I understand from this that they each have their own selection criteria which is different from each other......then not clear on how you can "combine" the 2? Would it not be better to evaluate each of the 2 systems to see if you can improve the ROI by checking where each one does "best" on - by analysing - 1. Types of markets. 2. Time of season. 3. Different "going" ...if relevant to horse racing. 4. Class of event. etc etc etc Gut feeling is NO re your question ....without further information ..... Better get back to racing!!!! GL with thread!!! |
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Combining more than 1 system is sensible, it cuts down on losing sequences
and can reduce commission. However you will need to weight the bets equally for each system. If one system or more has a lower edge it is best to either reduce the weighting on the one with the highest edge, or average them out. |
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Why not just operate the system that gives the highest ROI.....and stake more on that one???
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DFCIRONMAN
The higher edge system may not have as many bets and can still have a string of losers. Your higher edge may have only one bet per ten events with an edge of 20% the second system may have 6 bets in 8 events with an edge of 12% A third system may pick more than 1 bet in each event say 14 bets in 8 events with an edge of 7%. |
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Another point to make is that a system with a higher edge is likely to be
in the higher price bracket but has a lower strike rate. |
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the monitoring business, it has to be important due to seeing when the edge is eroded - I guess you don't expect the edge to hang around for a long time?
Initially I thought combine the two without hesitation. Can't you run them concurrently on one sub and independently on 2 others to very small stakes on the 2 independent ones, hence providing you with data and combining the edge for the majority of the money staked? |
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Treble_Underscore
You can do it your way in your second paragraph, just put a code in another column for each system, put subtotals at the top of the page and filter on those codes to keep track of strike rates and average odds etc.. for each system |
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VL why are you calling him. He asked a sensible question.
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