Racing System Builder

This thread could be interesting

have similar ideas but don't know of the RSB staking plan.

Chapter 10. The Staking Plan

Staking plans have rather a bad name with systematic punters. The reason is that the invention or engineering of a staking plan to fit a set of results is one of the time-honoured ways for the numerous highwaymen of the turf to remove money from the unwary. Always be more than sceptical about profits from any system which are based on a staking plan. If the system doesnt also make money on level stakes, then throw it away. In fact, I would say that any system which comes with a staking plan attached is probably only worthy of the bin. However, once you know you have a profitable method or system, then optimising the stakes is well worthwhile. Level stake betting does not represent the optimum, because relatively too much is risked on outsiders with little chance of winning. Thus if a lot of outsiders are backed, bank-draining losing runs are inevitable. All forms of retrieve staking are financial suicide, unless you possess a bank much greater than that of the bookmaker. If you do, what on earth are you doing as a punter? Trying to remove the discrepancy, obviously. Fancy schemes like pyramids are mere sophistry, the modern equivalent of counting the numbers of angels which can balance on a pinhead. Even with sequences where an increased profit is achieved, this is done overall by increasing turnover - in fact you simply end up risking more money.

We have done a tremendous amount of research on staking, and we have an optimised staking plan, produced from a very large computer simulation. It is very closely allied to the Kelly formula for betting on cards, in which stakes are increased when chances of winning are increased and when the margin in favour of the punter is increased. Thus an even money shot carries more money than a 2/1 shot simply because it is more likely to win, and a 2/1 shot which has true odds of evens carries much more money than a 2/1 shot with true odds of 6/4. Stakes are always calculated as a percentage of the bank, and the bank is recalculated after every bet. It is simply impossible to better this plan.

Unfortunately, it is also the quickest way to the poor-house ever devised by man. Let me explain. The key to optimising staking is to know the margin in favour of the punter. More should be staked when the margin is greater. With cards, the margin can be calculated with exact precision. The card-counter knows how many of each valuable card have already shown and the number of cards left. Therefore the odds of turning up a valuable card on the next deal can be calculated exactly and hence the margin calculated exactly.

Horse-racing simply is not like this. The probability of a certain horse winning can never be known with perfect accuracy. This would entail knowing precisely the details of every variable with a bearing on its chance of winning - its blood white cell count, how it was feeling before the race, the

Good post top2rated

I have a similar plan, but as I back multiple selections in the same events
it would take some configuring to do.

The only thing I don't agree with is that extra stakes on shorter prices don't
improve my ROI. Most of my profits come from the bigger price range.

Thanks for the post Top2, and for your interest Compound!
I'm doing that currently (1/10th of bank x percentage chance : therefore staking 5% on a 50% chance) but without an extra for assumed Margin.
If I'm going to introduce that it may be a problem because I bet only at betfair SP,but can do it based on the price just before off, probably capping it M at 50%.
If increasing stakes relative each other to capture Margins i'll need to reduce my 1/10th bank accordingly to 1/12.5.
Maybe skimming was in another chapter. Probably i'll just work out my own variation of banking a little after winners where the margin is totally out of kilter. The problem with percentage betting is that by definition your largest stakes are on a losing bet and that may alleviate it a bit.
Can do just about anything you like with excel and having learned how to utilise it with an API i'm very happy!

Skimming

Most of us dream of making enough from our betting to live a life of retirement luxury. However, this can only be achieved if all winnings accrue to the bank and the resultant stakes are ramped up as the bank increases. Unfortunately, as every potential professional gambler or even lucky punter knows, once you start to win consistently, getting large bets on becomes more and more difficult.

Very many of the fraudulent or dubious schemes which plague the racing world year after year are based on projections which involve placing absurdly huge amounts of money. This is simply not realistic. To physically place such amounts would demand a large, honest, willing workforce of agents. This in itself could not help but cost money, and so the rate of return would be bound to decrease.

An alternative to this is to skim the bank, which means to cream sums off the top of it out of winnings, placing these in safer but lower return investments out reach of the clutches of the bookmakers! We have yet to make a study of optimised skimming, but one might speculate that the right time to skim is when the bank has advanced short term by a greater than expected rate (i.e. the rate expected in the long term). Eventually, assuming the overall strategy is a winning one, the bank will reach such a level that stakes will become very difficult to place. This is clearly the point at which the skim becomes obligatory.

©Racedata Modelling Limited 1995-2006

Thanks Top2! ..

I'd forgotten it was recommended due to the problems of getting on realistically at prices, i think it can still serve a purpose though.