General Betting
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17 Mar 10
02:43
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Date Joined:
27 May 06
Assumptions (discard traders and arbitrage punters as some of these assumptions would not apply)
1. That at least 80% have a negative ROI
2. That of those that have a positive ROI the majority only use Betfairs my account to track their betting
3. That most start with a small deposit (less than 200.00) hoping to increase bet size as profits accrue
4. That very few know (less than5%) what % chance their selection has of winning and from that know what price is value to back at or lay at
5. That few have a staking plan that they do not diverge from
6. That few specialize on one type of market to make their selections
7. That few use an objective assessment to make their selections
8. That most are swayed by market moves to change bets from original selection.
I am interested in views as to how those with a positive ROI over a lengthy period (over at least 1 year) manage their money (how their stakes are determined).
1. That at least 80% have a negative ROI
2. That of those that have a positive ROI the majority only use Betfairs my account to track their betting
3. That most start with a small deposit (less than 200.00) hoping to increase bet size as profits accrue
4. That very few know (less than5%) what % chance their selection has of winning and from that know what price is value to back at or lay at
5. That few have a staking plan that they do not diverge from
6. That few specialize on one type of market to make their selections
7. That few use an objective assessment to make their selections
8. That most are swayed by market moves to change bets from original selection.
I am interested in views as to how those with a positive ROI over a lengthy period (over at least 1 year) manage their money (how their stakes are determined).
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I think the people that lose (the vast majority) do so primarily because they lose hold of their emotions when things go against them.
Most who bet know enough to lose commission and no more than another 3-5%. People's losses are more than this b/c of chasing. I wd guess that losers lose, back off for a while, then get fired up and deposit more.
Personally I make tissues but they tend to determine entry points as a layer and are not inflexible. I found it harder and harder to win as a outright backer (it was easy when I started ten years ago) and changed strategies so that I am now predominantly making a partial book on the other side.
Most who bet know enough to lose commission and no more than another 3-5%. People's losses are more than this b/c of chasing. I wd guess that losers lose, back off for a while, then get fired up and deposit more.
Personally I make tissues but they tend to determine entry points as a layer and are not inflexible. I found it harder and harder to win as a outright backer (it was easy when I started ten years ago) and changed strategies so that I am now predominantly making a partial book on the other side.
CM, I am using a scaled-down version of Kelly to determine how much to lay. I keep lopsided books rather than green up, but red up both globally and on whole markets when I seem to got specific horses wrong.
askari1
Kelly is excellent on single selection per event, but as I back multiple horses in the same event providing they are all value, I use % of profits staking according to the current roi over the last 100 selections.
Thanks for your info cheers.
Kelly is excellent on single selection per event, but as I back multiple horses in the same event providing they are all value, I use % of profits staking according to the current roi over the last 100 selections.
Thanks for your info cheers.
Kelly can be extremely dangerous. You have to be VERY confident that your price is "correct", otherwise you will just end up having unusually large bets when the price is way off which is often because of some factor your system hasn't accounted for.
I find that Kelly is a nice guide to tell you the sort of bank % you should typically be risking, given the overall ROI on your selections. You can obviously vary it a bit based on the perceived edge, also the level of confidence - sometimes my numbers say I have a big edge but there are a lot of question marks; other times a smaller edge but I KNOW it can't be a bad value bet.
I have certainly fallen into the trap in the past of producing prices that make a decent profit, and therefore assuming those prices are "correct". Adding Kelly to that can quickly turn a positive ROI into a negative one :-)
I find that Kelly is a nice guide to tell you the sort of bank % you should typically be risking, given the overall ROI on your selections. You can obviously vary it a bit based on the perceived edge, also the level of confidence - sometimes my numbers say I have a big edge but there are a lot of question marks; other times a smaller edge but I KNOW it can't be a bad value bet.
I have certainly fallen into the trap in the past of producing prices that make a decent profit, and therefore assuming those prices are "correct". Adding Kelly to that can quickly turn a positive ROI into a negative one :-)
I agree w/ Knight Rider--with Kelly you just tend to have too much on when there's something you missed. But I wdn't bet w/out a tissue or stake w/out Kelly.
CM, I am also laying/betting on multiple horses per race but not to a fixed takeout. I will adjust my bets on 'feel' but basically if all my bets move in the direction of what I perceive to be true value, i will leave the bets. I minimise comm. by trading out at the expectation on certain markets.
CM, I am also laying/betting on multiple horses per race but not to a fixed takeout. I will adjust my bets on 'feel' but basically if all my bets move in the direction of what I perceive to be true value, i will leave the bets. I minimise comm. by trading out at the expectation on certain markets.
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