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General Betting
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13 Mar 10
22:07
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Date Joined:
16 Sep 06
what do u reckon the best staking plan for over/ under 2.5 goals is?
Thanks
Dr Howard Winker
Thanks
Dr Howard Winker
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Replies: 10
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best to ask investor.
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Higher stakes on winning bets, lower stakes on losing bets works best
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Investor, what's the best staking for overs/ unders please?
Thanks Dr Howard Winker |
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MARTINGALE
CANNOT LOSE |
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cpfc4me 13 Mar 23:20
Higher stakes on winning bets, lower stakes on losing bets works best Easily done, increase after a loser, decrease after a winner. You will always have more on the winners than the loser. 2 provisos though, You must have more winners than losers, and no serious losing runs. |
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If you're placing straight bets, fractional Kelly.
If you're trading, things get a lot more complicated. A guy called Ralph Vince has written some decent stuff about this. Essentially the formulae used are still nothing more than an adaptation of the Kelly Criterion though. There's a lot to consider when you're trading: - How likely is it that my bet will get matched? - Could this money be put to better use in another market? - How will different events impact the prices? - What is the chance that things go wrong very quickly before I can trade out? - When will I close the trade? etc. I tend to spread my money out across many markets, and due to this I rarely get close to the 'maximum' I could be risking. http://www.forex-book.org/the-mathematics-ofmoney-management-byralph-vince-free-download/ If you want to keep things simple, just spread your money across a few different markets and have a predetermined price or time to exit your trades. |
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Is Kelly the one where you have to know the probability of the bet winning? That's where I fall down - if I knew that I would just win on level stakes.
But genuinely thanks Investor, I wasn't actually expecting a serious answer, not that I don't want one. I've settled on 10% of bank, no reducing after a loser, for betting over 1.5, what do you reckon? |
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Kenilworth, on another thread you said the opposite - increase after a winner, decrease after a loser, which I thought sounded quite good. Tried it before though and it didn't really work too well.
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howardisawinker, if you're not making a profit with your betting, the best staking system would be to bet with a little as possible and try to make a consistent profit. Even if you only make an average of 10p per game, it's a lot better than losing money.
Once you've been able to make a small amount of profit per game with a fair level of consistency for 3-6 months or more, you can look at increasing the stakes. |
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Howard, I can't remember the post you refer to, but it's possible I did, probably in relation to a different strike rate. What I suggested here ensures you have the higher stake on the winners etc, but every staking system is at the mercy of the losing sequence which is unpredictable.
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