staking for overs/ unders

best to ask investor.

Higher stakes on winning bets, lower stakes on losing bets works best

Investor, what's the best staking for overs/ unders please?

Thanks

Dr Howard Winker

MARTINGALE


CANNOT LOSE

cpfc4me 13 Mar 23:20


Higher stakes on winning bets, lower stakes on losing bets works best

Easily done, increase after a loser, decrease after a winner. You will always have more on the winners than the loser. 2 provisos though,
You must have more winners than losers, and no serious losing runs.

If you're placing straight bets, fractional Kelly.


If you're trading, things get a lot more complicated. A guy called Ralph Vince has written some decent stuff about this. Essentially the formulae used are still nothing more than an adaptation of the Kelly Criterion though.

There's a lot to consider when you're trading:

- How likely is it that my bet will get matched?
- Could this money be put to better use in another market?
- How will different events impact the prices?
- What is the chance that things go wrong very quickly before I can trade out?
- When will I close the trade?
etc.

I tend to spread my money out across many markets, and due to this I rarely get close to the 'maximum' I could be risking.

http://www.forex-book.org/the-mathematics-ofmoney-management-byralph-vince-free-download/

If you want to keep things simple, just spread your money across a few different markets and have a predetermined price or time to exit your trades.

Is Kelly the one where you have to know the probability of the bet winning? That's where I fall down - if I knew that I would just win on level stakes.

But genuinely thanks Investor, I wasn't actually expecting a serious answer, not that I don't want one.

I've settled on 10% of bank, no reducing after a loser, for betting over 1.5, what do you reckon?

Kenilworth, on another thread you said the opposite - increase after a winner, decrease after a loser, which I thought sounded quite good. Tried it before though and it didn't really work too well.

howardisawinker, if you're not making a profit with your betting, the best staking system would be to bet with a little as possible and try to make a consistent profit. Even if you only make an average of 10p per game, it's a lot better than losing money.

Once you've been able to make a small amount of profit per game with a fair level of consistency for 3-6 months or more, you can look at increasing the stakes.

Howard, I can't remember the post you refer to, but it's possible I did, probably in relation to a different strike rate. What I suggested here ensures you have the higher stake on the winners etc, but every staking system is at the mercy of the losing sequence which is unpredictable.