Why doesnt a system of laying every tipster in the Racing Post tip box work

Why would you be trying to find a profitable system based on laying other peoples opinion? Perhaps researching the dynamics at play within the sport of your choice may prove more fruitful.

Because you are betting against other people. If enough of them blindly follow tipsters who are proven to be wrong, then regardless of the horses chance of winning, the odds will be in your favour. Just an opinion of course.

isparry..please email me..pbent2@tisc***.co.uk

can i email u .


what will happen if i do?

just wanted to share experience

have u a winning system plums?

plums!

You have mail

Barry
Thats exactly my thoughts so you would think it would work!

We've been over this one before.All comes down to commission and how much you have lay above sp to get matched.Try it, but I think you will be disappointed in the long run.If it was that easy alot more people would be winning on here.

Fair enough Barry, (I'm assuming you aren't the real barry Conway now!)

The issue that I would raise is that you could never tell for sure exactly what weight of money in the market was there to follow these tipsters. I think this is an issue because it is after all about matching others bets. If it works long term though, good luck to all who get involved.

This alleged system has really been flogged to death on here over the last couple of years , just visit gubbed.com and you will find hundreds that have tried every filter in the book in an attempt to make it work but in the end laying at inflated prices and the commission have killed the dream and they've given up.

why dosnt it work if their resuilts are quoted at SP and you lay as close as possible to start time (ie as close to sp price as possible on betfair)..i know you have to lay at bigger prices but the losses the tipsters rack up look as they you would still be in profit..

am I looking at the right website as gubbe.com is all about a discombobulator already in use?

google betfair gubbed

I have tried this, and you could do it if you were able to lay at far enough below the sp to cancel out commission. But have found too many that you lay and end up a point above sp! Also the naps table has an infinite bank. Having too much on the losing bets and not enough on the winners will kill you in the end.

By all means give it a go but my advice would be to visit the old threads first , digest it all , then make a decision and if you plan to go ahead filter free then you will seriously need all the luck in the world and it could quite easily be profitable for a while at least , if you plan to incorporate a personal filter than that's a different story and depends on individual choice.
Personal opinion is that this falls into the category of using archive data for a future system and that's flawed without sound logical reasons why it will work which in this instance I don't believe exist apart from historical data which is misleading due to the inflated prices and commission.

Would swerve it myself but best of luck if you decide to give it a go.

Just another thought. Does this system get more profitable with time as it is obviously high turnover than say a system with one selection per race. Therefore commision rate should come down and in the long run if profitable stakes will go up

Done every race today from 4.20 at carlisle and 19.20 up today with a lay stake of £2 per horse and commision rate of 4.7%

Daily Total +19.20
Running Total +19.20

You are looking at the collective loss based on level stakes

So in order to achieve this, it means not just laying to gain £2 per horse, it means laying £2 per tipster.

So the big question:

If 5 tipsters select a horse on a day, do you then lay it to win £10 (5 times £2).

Where "systems" like this fail is a person will then shy away from that selection. It comes in third and now 5 points of that "total" you see is not achieved.

Two or three posts down said it. Find your nack and go for it. Right now, I am focusing on 6F to a mile where I am 90% on lays over the past three years. It sometimes means less plays but a strike rate that I can live with.

Sorry that was per tipster. Not per horse.

lsparry1

A few years ago I kept a record of the tipster's selections.

I checked several hundred races at a time, at different times of the year, and found that they were fairly consistent in that they found the winner in approx. 66% of those races.

Be interesting to see if those stats still stack up if you stick at it for a reasonable period of time.

Good luck.

Answer to original question - It doesn't work because most of the time you cannot lay at SP on here. If you can find a way to lay at SP or under, it will work. If you can find a way to lay at SP or under you can lay everything and anything and make money.

Hi lads,

I was looking for an in play bot to lay horses at different odds and came across one such bot, Autotradingfox.co uk not sure this could work but maybe something to look into,I will be trying this

Does anyone know how this went in the end?  There seems to be no reason why such a system shouldn't work. Looking at the Naps Table on the RP site, the tipsters in profit overall appear to have amassed 215pts, and the negative tipsters have lost around 666. Seems there's plenty of room there to get in not quite at SP prices.

Many of the people on this thread seemed to be confusing the general public (who, strangely, are really rather good at picking winners in the long term - you won't quite make a profit by backing every favourite, but the success rate is sufficiently close for you to lose your money in commission charges, should you try to lay them instead) with the tipsters. The collective public get close over time. I'm not sure the same could be said of tipsters - or, indeed, most individuals.

To answer my own question, I assume it's down to the fact that any small increase in laying odds makes a large difference when applied across a lengthy list of horses.

I'd like to see the data, though.

Took a look at this for last years naps table, April to October, recording data on a daily basis.
If you where able to lay every horse at SP you would have made a profit of £646.84 to a one pound stake(this total is slightly different to the actual final total as tipsters drop out through out the period and are not included in the final table). Were you to have laid the same selections at Betfair SP at a commission rate at 4.5% you would have made a loss of £475.1. This is not 100% accurate in that it does not take into consideration situations were you have a loss from a lay and win from a back of selections that are in the same race or a loss from a back and a win from a lay.

Sums it up well llamedos.  Any system which works laying horse at SP is almost certain not to work laying horses on BF due to the inflated prices you have to lay most of these horses at.

Sorry just re read my last part of my comments and it seems a bit gobbledegook, I am sure most of you understand what I mean't but I will just clarify using an example with 5% commission
If you were to lay a selection to a one pound stake in one race at say 7(any price will do) and it looses, you would win one pound less 5% equal 95p. If in the following race you were to lay a selection at evens and it won you would loose a pound, net loss over the two races would be 5p.
However if both selections ran in the same race you would win a pound from the winning lay and loose a pound(winner at evens) from the loosing lay. Net P&L from the race would be nil.
The figures that I calculated did not take this scenario in consideration, the calculation were based on every selection running in a different race.
I hope that is a bit clearer.

Regards

It doesnt work because you will be laying consistantly above sp.
Therefore its not a level playing field.
If you could always lay at sp (not betfair sp)you would win.

Makes sense Llamedos. Thanks.