General Betting
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28 Feb 10
20:23
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28 Oct 08
I put this in the footy forum but I'll post it here as well since it's sunk to the bottom of the page already :D
A lot of Unders markets get their prices pushed up at HT. Obviously some of it is people trying to lay off but if you watch a few markets you'll see a pattern which is making me think its the same person/people/system at work but my question is for example in the PSG game under 2.5 was 1.65 at HT. about 5 mins into HT someone comes in with a load of money, eats up whats in between then forces the price to 1.68 (most of the games today have gone several ticks higher than that) so what's to stop someone with the cash backing their inflated prices?
if they're constantly offering prices that are higher than they should be then why not just take their price and keep it for the duration as value or lay it off again at the 'normal' price?
I am missing something, i know i am, but i can't put my finger on it!
A lot of Unders markets get their prices pushed up at HT. Obviously some of it is people trying to lay off but if you watch a few markets you'll see a pattern which is making me think its the same person/people/system at work but my question is for example in the PSG game under 2.5 was 1.65 at HT. about 5 mins into HT someone comes in with a load of money, eats up whats in between then forces the price to 1.68 (most of the games today have gone several ticks higher than that) so what's to stop someone with the cash backing their inflated prices?
if they're constantly offering prices that are higher than they should be then why not just take their price and keep it for the duration as value or lay it off again at the 'normal' price?
I am missing something, i know i am, but i can't put my finger on it!
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Maybe their price is right and the existing price is wrong?
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Wee Mac 28 Feb 21:34
Maybe their price is right and the existing price is wrong? then lay the existing price ;-) |
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That's what the mystery layer is doing :-)
But if they were to start implimenting their lay just before half time then the new price would be right (presumably) so you would then be wrong to lay the existing price. |
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People with good models make the money. They will lay when it's too short and back when it's too big. No point guessing
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I have seen this with correct score when i have been trading out on 0 0 or even 0 1 just before ht
price may be 4.2 to trade out at ht but goes back up to 4.3 or 4.4 during interval - just a rough example but something I have noticed |
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Could be just punters, people tend to bet on something happening rather than nothing happening, so unders bigger overs shorter.
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Flatliner that was my first thought, punters laying off their bet. But there's a pattern to a lot of it. Same amounts of money appearing at the same time to back and lay, blocking the price at a certain level. Must be extremely confident bookending a price that is higher than it was before play stopped. Which is why i'm confused.
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If you are confident in your model, you can afford to bookend, as you know that if you get left with one side of it you have value.
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Why always push it higher though?
Or is that just what I've seen while ive been watching and it usually goes either way? I collected an insane amount of data on how the price of the draw changed at HT when the game was a draw and couldn't find any discernable pattern, seemed to go up sometimes and down others and put the idea to the back of my mind. |
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mobo 28 Feb 21:58
I have seen this with correct score when i have been trading out on 0 0 or even 0 1 just before ht price may be 4.2 to trade out at ht but goes back up to 4.3 or 4.4 during interval - just a rough example but something I have noticed If the unders prices moves out during halftime the low scoring correct scores will follow. The work of bots no doubt. It's much easier to price up accurately at half time. |
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cheers - i bet on footy a lot and don't usually have time to study this part of it but of course if you know the price is going back up !!! then there may be opportunities
this has less to do with what is happening on the pitch and much prefer to trade when game is being played all the best |
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Rocket to the FACE 28 Feb 22:30
Why always push it higher though? Or is that just what I've seen while ive been watching and it usually goes either way? I collected an insane amount of data on how the price of the draw changed at HT when the game was a draw and couldn't find any discernable pattern, seemed to go up sometimes and down others and put the idea to the back of my mind. The draw price is also linked to the unders price. What kind of % do they bet to on the unders market just before Half-Time? |
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gonna have to clarify your question mate.
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i noticed the 0-0 price at half time in the barca game drifted from 9.0 to around 11ish
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