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27 Feb 10
02:18
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Date Joined:
18 May 03
A question for the mathematics geniuses on here.
I am compiling a database of results, both football and tennis. I am working on the tennis one and what I want to calculate is this..
In a match which is out of 3 sets..
If I back the winner of Set 1 in every match, going red if the other player then wins Set 2 for an equal amount on both players, thereby ensuring I lose money in a 3 set match but as little as possible on either of the players.
what would my profit be for 5 years.
That's the problem I am trying to solve to see if it would be profitable.
I have listed the matches and I have this formula..
=IF(PQ,((AO-1)/3)+1,((AP-1)/3)+1)
whereby
P is the score of the match winner in the first set
Q is the score of the other player in the first set
AO is the pre-match odds of the winner
AP is the pre-match odds of the loser
This formula, approximately, calculates the odds of the winner of the first set.
Then I am using this formula
=IF(RS,10*T-10,?)
in which R is the score of the match winner in the second set
S is the score of the other player in the second set
T is the result of the first formula i.e. the odds of the winner of the first set
This formula gives the profit for a stake of £10.
The ? is what I am trying to find the answer to. What it would be is a formula which calculates exactly the amount required, including the profit already on one side of the market, to rebalance the profit as an equal deficit on both sides, in a formula which then recalculates the deficit on the market using prematch odds as the odds the first set winner has returned to.
For example,
If I put £10 on a player who started the match at 1.56 and has won the first set and so is at odds of 1.19, I have -10 on one side and +1.90 on the other. They lost the next set and are now at odds of 1.56 again. What formula can I use to give an equal deficit on both players?
Any ideas would be appreciated.
I am compiling a database of results, both football and tennis. I am working on the tennis one and what I want to calculate is this..
In a match which is out of 3 sets..
If I back the winner of Set 1 in every match, going red if the other player then wins Set 2 for an equal amount on both players, thereby ensuring I lose money in a 3 set match but as little as possible on either of the players.
what would my profit be for 5 years.
That's the problem I am trying to solve to see if it would be profitable.
I have listed the matches and I have this formula..
=IF(PQ,((AO-1)/3)+1,((AP-1)/3)+1)
whereby
P is the score of the match winner in the first set
Q is the score of the other player in the first set
AO is the pre-match odds of the winner
AP is the pre-match odds of the loser
This formula, approximately, calculates the odds of the winner of the first set.
Then I am using this formula
=IF(RS,10*T-10,?)
in which R is the score of the match winner in the second set
S is the score of the other player in the second set
T is the result of the first formula i.e. the odds of the winner of the first set
This formula gives the profit for a stake of £10.
The ? is what I am trying to find the answer to. What it would be is a formula which calculates exactly the amount required, including the profit already on one side of the market, to rebalance the profit as an equal deficit on both sides, in a formula which then recalculates the deficit on the market using prematch odds as the odds the first set winner has returned to.
For example,
If I put £10 on a player who started the match at 1.56 and has won the first set and so is at odds of 1.19, I have -10 on one side and +1.90 on the other. They lost the next set and are now at odds of 1.56 again. What formula can I use to give an equal deficit on both players?
Any ideas would be appreciated.
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The formulas should state P is greater than and R is greater than, but the symbol does not work on this forum.
=IF(AB, (S*(P2-1)), ((S*(P2-1))*(1/P1))+(-S*(1-(1/P1))))
Where
A = Player who won 1st set, 2nd set score
B = Player who lost 1st set, 2nd set score
S = Stake
P2 = Estimated price of A after winning 1st set
P1 = Starting price of A
Where
A = Player who won 1st set, 2nd set score
B = Player who lost 1st set, 2nd set score
S = Stake
P2 = Estimated price of A after winning 1st set
P1 = Starting price of A
It's not too bad when you plug it into excel, that only gives your risk though in the event that the 1st set winner loses the 2nd, you want to the stake so let me have a think
I may have to use a sequence of formulas.
To work out the lay stake in the event goes to a 3rd set simply add S to that 3rd part of the formula
I'll give it a try when my mind is more active i.e. tomorrow.
=IF(A(GREATER)B, (S*(P2-1)), S + ((S*(P2-1))*(1/P1))+(-S*(1-(1/P1))))
That should give you your profit (ignoring commission) in the event its a straight sets victory but in the event it goes to a 3rd set, the lay stake that makes you equal red. May be a shorter formula but it's not to complex once you set up a spreadsheet
That should give you your profit (ignoring commission) in the event its a straight sets victory but in the event it goes to a 3rd set, the lay stake that makes you equal red. May be a shorter formula but it's not to complex once you set up a spreadsheet
Your /3 formula in the 1st stage seems a bit too general as well, it's not a bad estimate but you're much better off recording odds inplay than using that and getting an idea whether it's profitable. I know the answer, but i'll let you figure it out for yourself :)
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