General Betting
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28 Feb 10
11:17
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03 Sep 08
If you're using methods based on historical data which in theory shows level stakes profit over a period of time...
In many ways i'm confident to steadfastly follow whatever comes up, but sometimes its still psychologically difficult to put 4 or 5 units up against an odds on favourite which you know is still the most likely winner.
I'm never comfortable with refining systems that end up throwing the baby out with the bathwater. And if you stake say 1 unit divided equally or according to chances, you are diluting the impact of the bigger price wins from which the profits are derived.
Changing the acceptable price upwards to account for your extra selections will further reduce your strike rate and losing runs.
Interested to hear how others approach this situation
In many ways i'm confident to steadfastly follow whatever comes up, but sometimes its still psychologically difficult to put 4 or 5 units up against an odds on favourite which you know is still the most likely winner.
I'm never comfortable with refining systems that end up throwing the baby out with the bathwater. And if you stake say 1 unit divided equally or according to chances, you are diluting the impact of the bigger price wins from which the profits are derived.
Changing the acceptable price upwards to account for your extra selections will further reduce your strike rate and losing runs.
Interested to hear how others approach this situation
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Never had a systen that would through 4-5 selections up against an odds on fav. Could you give a hint on what system you are following?
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I would either do a bit of dutching or leave the race alone.
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Sunset : it happens to be horses that have shown a modicum of form in race types in which short price horses are overbet. But there are many systems that will throw up more than one qualifier in a race.
You could say to lay the favourite in this method, but this does not take advantage of the extent to which some horses are neglected and overpriced. |
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starfish: I think if you have 4-5 selections up against an odds on fav which is also a horse that you like, then the best way to make money from this situation would be to lay the horse which is the shortest price that you have not selected.. for a lot of units
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An odds on favourite can still be the most likely winner of a race while representing poor value in the long run.
And following a betting method is about letting other people take a personal assessment and relying on your assumed edge. Can bet profitably on more than one horse in a race without dutching, just am interested in the short-term psychology and best approach when faced with these situations |