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Another_Winner
22 Feb 10 13:52
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Date Joined: 01 Mar 06
| Topic/replies: 32 | Blogger: Another_Winner's blog
Hi,

I am in the middle of doing an excel spreadsheet where I put my percentages for the match and the expected goals and it will tell me the percentage price for the asian handicap and goal markets.

I have managed to do all of the Asian Handicap and the half and full goals but for some reason my mind has just gone blank when it comes to the 0.25 and 0.75 for the goals.

Can anybody help me with this please?

Using a poisson distribution I have the percentage chance of the match finishing on each outcome of goals.

Thanks

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Replies: 4
By:
mug
When: 22 Feb 10 16:34
A one-point bet struck at say 2.25 is two bets: half a point at 2.00 and half a point at 2.50. HTH.
By:
Another_Winner
When: 22 Feb 10 19:04
Thanks for the reply, but I dont think that it is exactly the case.

I know that is how they work but if you look at the odds for say 2 and 2.5 the price for the 2.25 is not the average of them. There is a slight preference for the under.
By:
kenilworth
When: 22 Feb 10 19:07
That would be because the 2.0 is more likely than the 2.5 surely.
By:
Another_Winner
When: 22 Feb 10 19:14
So what calculation should I use then to make the % for the under 2.25 then?
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