General Betting
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hi, i have got a question:
with a strategy proved on 300 matches and average odds of 1.84 and the percentage of your winnings is 49% and loses 51%... can one make a profit in long term?
with a strategy proved on 300 matches and average odds of 1.84 and the percentage of your winnings is 49% and loses 51%... can one make a profit in long term?
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Replies: 23
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No imo.
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why?
i think the odds outweigh the numbers of your losing bets... |
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from your figures no
but need more info |
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Average odds of 1.84 and hitting 51%? It's **.
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depends what your staking plan is
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well,sorry, i mean by laying those average odds!!!
Staking plan is alway lay the same percentage of your bank |
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You will make a loss backing and a profit laying at 1.84 if the 49/51 holds up.
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you haven't factored commission in. I take it you'll be operating on here?
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Still looks good with a 5% commission, 300 is a very small sample.
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yes, i do operate here.
so as farraflash says by laying at those average odds one should make a profit. that is what i also think. i made a test of 300 real matches. that strategy is based on stats of 4400 matches with a little different odds of 52% loses,48% wins and average odds of 1.80. it depends on the odds you get matched in "real". |
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You can't just "average odds" for obvious reasons. More information needed.
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If it is successful be prepared to move if you hit the PC.
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If your figures held true and you laid to a backers stake of 10.00 ~
For a 100 consecutive bets Expectation 49 Winning lays @ 10.00 = 490 51 Losing lays @ -8.4 = -428.4 Gross profit = 61.6 @ 5% commission = 490*.05 = 24.5 Net profit = 37.10 (61.6-24.5) Actual commission % paid on gross profit = 24.5/61.6 = 39.8% PC calculation Commission paid on winnings = 24.50 Commission generated on losses = 428.4 * 3% =12.85 PC calculated commission = (24.5+12.85)/2 = 18.68 Commission generated total 18.68/61 = 30.3% Which is more than 20% so no PC applicable End result % profit per 100 bets = 3.71 using a bank of 1000.00 Given the win rate and prices, 400.00 bank would probably suffice. A bank less than that would be risky indeed. So on a 400.00 bank your % profit would increase to 37.1/400 = 9.28% per 100 bets. Does not matter the sequence or the price of each individual bet as long as the average holds true as stated. |
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For 100 bets per week you will be paying the PC if you get 52 or more 'winners' in a week. The chance of this happening is 30.8% so you will be paying the PC about 1 week in 3.
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I think there will only be max. 100 bets per month.
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no, sorry... 100-150 per month. depends on the odds
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AND my stakes will not be at level stakes but at a certain percentage. that means that the bank grows (reduces if losses) faster than at level stakes.
so the PC has to be recalculated. but thanks very much for the calculation, compound magic!!! |
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Beware staking by a % of the bank
The bigger the % the lower profit % per win Better to increase stake after bank increases by X amount and decrease after losing X amount (% of bank) |
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the percentage will be around 3%
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farraflash 10 Feb 06:51
For 100 bets per week you will be paying the PC if you get 52 or more 'winners' in a week. The chance of this happening is 30.8% so you will be paying the PC about 1 week in 3. Not true because the lifetime commission paid will be well over 20%. Even on a good week pc will not apply |
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A 1000.00 bank
3% level stake on 1000.00 bank 30.00 Lay loses =+ 30.00 30.00 lay wins = - 25.2 = 4.80 profit less 1.5 com. =net gain 3.3 3% stake on bank 1000.00 30.00 lay loses = +30.00 -1.5 com= +28.5 next bet 3% of new bank 1028.5 = 30.8 30.80 lay wins = -25.87 = 28.5-25.87 = net gain 2.63 Same two horses level stake, net gain 3.30 To 3% of bank, net gain 2.63 a difference of 20% profit If all goes well you will end up in front of level stakes but with more risk and a higher commission bill. |
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yes, thats true.
as long as the numbers stated above hold this is the way to go I think. I will give it a go. |
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is the average price to back 1.84? obviously you may not neccessarily lay at that price.
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